The $3 Million, Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Saturday at Gulfstream Park brings collectively a area of 12 in what needs to be an exhilarating race on the distance of 1 1/8 miles, with seven of the dozen entrants having earned $1 million or extra of their racing careers.
Main the sphere in earnings is White Abarrio ($5.2 million earner), winner of eight races in 19 begins. White Abarrio completed eighth within the 2023 Pegasus World Cup however went on to win the 2023 Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional. White Abarrio enters this yr’s race off a troubled second-place effort within the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes in December. Skippylongstocking leads the sphere in profession wins with 9 (in 28 begins) and has over $3 million in earnings. After being pulled up and never ending on this race final yr, Skippylongstocking has received three of seven together with the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and Grade 2 Charles City Traditional Stakes on the distance of the Pegasus. Mystik Dan ($4.1 million), the winner of the 2024 Kentucky Derby offered by Woodford Reserve, has received three of 10 races and makes his second begin following greater than six months off. He returned 4 weeks in the past to complete sixth within the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes. Saudi Crown ($3.1 million) received the Tenacious Stakes final month in his second begin again off a layoff. As a 3-year-old, Saudi Crown captured the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby to show he belongs at this stage.
Locked is one other making his third begin off a layoff, having received two in a row together with the Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap offered by Twinspires.com on Dec. 7. Stronghold ($1.1 million) has completed first or second in 9 of 10 profession begins, along with his largest win coming within the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby final April. He lately completed second within the Malibu and will enhance off that effort. Mixto received the Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Pacific Traditional Stakes final summer season earlier than an 11th-place effort within the Breeders’ Cup Traditional, however he confirmed good type when third within the Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes in his closing Pegasus tune-up. Newgrange ($1 million) has received seven of 15 begins however hasn’t actually proven up within the different eight races, with no second-place finishes and 4 third place efforts. Crupi ($1.1 million) received the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes final June, however his final win previous to that got here the earlier December. He enters the race off a fifth-place end (moved as much as fourth by way of a disqualification) within the Grade 2 Clark Stakes offered by Norton Healthcare in November. Steal Sunshine received the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes final March however has had little success in a two-turn race just like the Pegasus and completed 5 lengths behind the winner when third within the Grade 3 Harlan’s Vacation Stakes final month. Energy Squeeze, the one feminine within the area, has received six of 12 in her profession together with the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes offered by Keeneland Gross sales final summer season. Vitality rounds out the sphere. He received the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown within the Prince of Wales Stakes final September for his second win in 12 begins, however he’s winless in three races since then together with a sixth within the Harlan’s Vacation on Dec. 21.
Evaluation and high Contenders:
When assessing traits that winners of this race have possessed in earlier years, it seems operating within the Large Ass Followers Breeders’ Cup Dust Mile or the Breeders’ Cup Traditional carries probably the most weight. That is smart, on condition that these two races are the highest targets close to the top of the yr for horses operating on filth from one mile to 1 ¼ miles, which lends itself to success on this 1 1/8-mile race. Three horses on this area ran in a kind of two races on Nov. 3 – Mixto, Saudi Crown and Skippylongstocking. Mixto completed 11th of 14 at odds of 69-1 within the Traditional and has not received or completed second in three races on the distance of the Pegasus. Moreover, he was winless in six races earlier than his victory within the Pacific Traditional and has been winless twice since, and as such he’s simply not a horse I take into account having an excellent likelihood to win this race. The opposite two I’ve talked about, nevertheless, each appear completely able to successful this yr’s Pegasus.
Skippylongstocking will get slight desire over Saudi Crown as a result of he’s run 10 instances at Gulfstream Park on filth, successful thrice, whereas Saudi Crown is operating over the floor for the primary time. Skippylongstocking continues to carry out properly in most of his races, significantly at this mile-and-an-eighth distance the place he has received 5 of 13 races in his profession. The 2 better of these efforts, which additionally occur to be the most effective two races of his profession, got here final yr when successful the Oaklawn Handicap in April and the Charles City Traditional in August, each with career-best 114 Equibase Velocity Figures. Following the Charles City Traditional, Skippylongstocking led within the stretch within the Grade 2 Woodward Stakes at this distance, earlier than ending up second and overwhelmed lower than a size. In his solely race since then, he completed sixth of 13 within the Breeders’ Cup Dust Mile. Since then, he seems to have been getting ready for this race in effective trend, with six exercises evenly spaced seven days aside. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione has ridden Skippylongstocking 4 instances amongst his final 10 races, successful twice together with the 2023 Charles City Traditional in addition to the Challenger Stakes final March, which was the final time Gaffalione was within the saddle. Contemplating the standard of the sphere he confronted within the Breeders’ Cup Dust Mile and his very good document on the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Pegasus, I feel Skippylongstocking needs to be a really robust contender within the race from begin to end.
Saudi Crown, with jockey Florent Geroux aboard, may very well be the horse the sphere should catch. It’s because he attracts the quantity two submit place and has used his glorious early velocity to earn 4 of his six wins main from the beginning. A kind of got here within the 2023 Pennsylvania Derby the place Saudi Crown earned a career-best 114 determine whereas controlling the tempo from begin to end on the distance of the Pegasus. He can even win from simply off the tempo, as evidenced when successful the Tenacious Stakes on Dec. 21 after racing in second for the primary three-quarters of a mile. That effort earned a 113 determine, proper up there with the 114 greatest figures Skippylongstocking has earned. Previous to the Tenacious, Saudi Crown went to submit on the identical 7-1 odds as Skippylongstocking within the Dust Mile however completed final of 13 in comparison with sixth for Skippylongstocking. Nonetheless, this horse has proven a number of high quality, successful half of his 12 profession begins, and contemplating he’s making his third begin since coming back from a three-month layoff in November we should always count on a high effort that may very well be ok to win.
Stronghold might have twice as many second-place finishes (six) in his profession as in comparison with wins (three) however three of these runner-up efforts got here in his final three races together with two on the high stage within the Pennsylvania Derby and the Malibu Stakes. His Equibase figures have considerably improved in his final three races as he has matured bodily as properly, going from 102 in July to 107 within the Pennsylvania Derby, after which to 114 within the Malibu. That final effort places him proper there with the highest two contenders if replicated and offers him an opportunity to win if he improves upon it and the opposite two don’t run in addition to anticipated. The one two instances he has run the space of the Pegasus, Stronghold has executed exceptionally properly. A kind of was when he checked in second within the Pennsylvania Derby and the opposite was when he received the Santa Anita Derby final April. Making his second begin following three months off and first as a 4-year-old, Stronghold should be thought of a powerful contender on this group.
Honorable point out should go to Locked and to White Abarrio. Locked returned from 11 months off in October to win an allowance race, after which received the Cigar Mile Handicap with a 113 Equibase determine which definitely is aggressive with the highest horses right here if repeated. Nonetheless, there’s a query about this distance, which he has by no means run beforehand, noting the Cigar win got here in a one-turn mile race. White Abarrio earned a 116 determine successful the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Traditional and has received six of eight races on the Gulfstream Park essential monitor. Like Locked, White Abarrio stretches out from a one-turn race following a second-place end within the Mr. Prospector Stakes 4 weeks in the past. He received the 2023 Whitney Stakes at this distance with a career-best 122 determine, however he was a 4-year-old then and in his two races on the finish of final yr as a 5-year-old, together with the Mr. Prospector, White Abarrio earned 104 and 100 figures which might not make him aggressive if repeated on this area.
The remainder of the sphere, with their greatest Equibase Velocity Figures in comparable races, is Crupi (112), Mixto (108), Mystik Dan (110), Newgrange (106), Energy Squeeze (97), Steal Sunshine (97) and Vitality (99).
Win Contenders in desire/likelihood order:
Skippylongstocking
Saudi Crown
Stronghold
(if any of the three horses above ought to scratch, I might not hesitate to contemplate Locked as a win contender).
