Some races are tough to handicap as a result of figuring out the almost certainly winner is difficult. Different races are tough for a unique motive: the almost certainly winner is clear, however consequently they’re a heavy favourite within the betting and making a significant revenue isn’t straightforward.
Saturday’s $1 million, Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing falls into the second class. Eight horses have been entered within the 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-old fillies. #6 Thorpedo Anna is a standout. The daughter of Quick Anna has compiled a stellar file this yr, trouncing fillies by blowout margins within the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes, Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks, Grade 1 DK Horse Acorn Stakes, and Grade 1 Teaching Membership American Oaks earlier than ending second by a head towards males within the Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes.
Thorpedo Anna ran an superior race within the Travers. She needed to wait in site visitors across the far flip. By the point she received out into the clear, reigning champion 2-year-old male Fierceness had opened up a transparent lead. She gamely chased him down the homestretch and might need handed him had the race been a couple of strides longer. Again towards fellow 3-year-old fillies within the Cotillion, Thorpedo Anna appears to be like mighty powerful to defeat.
In fact, Thorpedo Anna’s apparent deserves imply she’ll begin at quick odds. Betting her to win is unlikely to yield a lot of a return; a $20 win wager would possibly yield $28 or so. A 40% revenue is nothing to sneeze at, however there are plenty of uncertainties in horse racing, and bettors often need a greater return on funding to compensate for the chance concerned.
What does this imply? It means we have to resolve an unique wager just like the trifecta (choose the highest three finishers so as), which yields an even bigger payoff than a win wager. However this requires figuring out which fillies will end second and third behind Thorpedo Anna, a activity simpler mentioned than completed.
A few fillies are apparent contenders. Stretch-running #1 Energy Squeeze by no means threatened Thorpedo Anna within the Kentucky Oaks or the Acorn, ending sixth and third, respectively. However she’s since gained the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks and Grade 1 Alabama Stakes Introduced by Keeneland Gross sales by slender margins. Within the Alabama, Energy Squeeze rallied resiliently to defeat Grade 1 winner Candied by a head. Search for Energy Squeeze to be gaining floor strongly within the Parx stretch.
#3 Tarifa shouldn’t be underestimated both. True, she by no means threatened when ending ninth within the Kentucky Oaks, and her runner-up end when coming back from a layoff within the Audubon Oaks final month was solely so-so. However throughout the winter and spring Tarifa rattled off back-to-back victories within the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes Introduced by Fasig-Tipton and Grade 2 Truthful Grounds Oaks Introduced by Fasig-Tipton, so we all know she’s able to competing at a excessive degree on her finest day. Sharp exercises because the Audubon Oaks counsel she’ll transfer ahead in her second begin again.
There are also much less heralded fillies with an opportunity to issue within the Cotillion. Two specifically are interesting: #8 Mystic Lake and #5 Sidamara.
Mystic Lake has proven glorious type sprinting. Since Could, she’s sandwiched romping victories within the Grade 3 Miss Preakness Stakes and Grade 2 Charles City Oaks round a runner-up end (crushed by solely three-quarters of a size) within the Grade 3 Victory Journey Stakes. Some bettors would possibly hesitate to assist Mystic Lake as a result of she’s misplaced each of her begins operating one mile or farther, however these efforts got here on artificial and turf surfaces, and Mystic Lake appears clearly finest on dust. The Cotillion marks her first try to run lengthy on dust, and it’s potential she’ll relish the configuration and run a giant race on the entrance finish.
As for Sidamara, the daughter of champion Arrogate has gained two of her final three begins for Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott. After rallying to win a maiden particular weight race and an allowance-optional claiming race, each racing 1 1/16 miles, she stepped up in school for the Delaware Oaks and completed second by a nostril towards Energy Squeeze. Sidamara is enhancing steadily and has been freshened since July, opening the door for a powerful displaying in her rematch with Energy Squeeze.
Wagering Technique on a $10 Price range
$2 trifecta: 6 with 1 with 3,5,8 ($6)
What to say on the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 12, $2 trifecta 6 with 1 with 3,5,8
$2 trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 1 ($4)
What to say on the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 12, $2 trifecta 6 with 5,8 with 1
Wagering Technique on a $30 Price range
$6 trifecta: 6 with 1 with 3,5,8 ($18)
What to say on the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 12, $6 trifecta 6 with 1 with 3,5,8
$6 trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 1 ($12)
What to say on the betting window: Parx Racing, Race 12, $6 trifecta 6 with 5,8 with 1
Good luck, and benefit from the race!
