The $500,000, Grade 1 Fasig-Tipton Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes drew a top quality forged of 9 3-year-old fillies for a 1 3/16-mile turf stakes that appears like the perfect betting race from amongst 4 graded stakes on the July 6 card on the Belmont on the Massive A meet.
Saturday’s card additionally options the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes, the $200,000 John A. Nerud Stakes, and the $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes. “America’s Day on the Races” gives protection of the Belmont on the Massive A spring-summer meet on FOX Sports activities associates.
Positive to tickle many a bettor’s fancy within the Belmont Oaks is #8 Cinderella’s Dream for the potent trio of proprietor Godolphin, coach Charlie Appleby, and jockey William Buick. When this UK-based dream crew ships throughout the Atlantic to compete in North America, it’s clever to pay particular consideration.
Since 2020, Appleby has amassed 32 wins from 86 starters in North America for a 37% strike price with 31 of the wins coming in graded stakes and 19 Grade 1 wins. So, he’s not simply delivery and profitable, Appleby runners are profitable a lot of an important turf races in North America. Likewise, the Appleby-Buick partnership has produced 15 wins from 33 begins in North America since 2020 for an distinctive 45% win price in that span that features 13 Grade 1 wins.
Thus, it stands to cause that Cinderella’s Dream ought to be atop your bets within the Belmont Oaks, proper? Not so quick.
Whereas Appleby has continued to win at a really robust clip within the final 18 months or so because the begin of 2023, he has leveled off only a bit to a 29% win share with 5 Grade 1 wins. He’s been superb however not fairly dominant of late. There are two different causes to take a stand in opposition to Cinderella’s Dream, who started her profession with 4 straight wins earlier than working seventh most not too long ago within the QIPCO One Thousand Guineas.
First, she’s by no means competed in a race longer than one mile, so she’ll be navigating an additional three-sixteenths of a mile within the Belmont Oaks. She’s additionally very prone to face tender floor for the primary time within the Belmont Oaks with a rain within the forecast for Friday and Saturday in Jamaica, N.Y.
With these variables in play, I’ll look to a few different fillies to play on high of an exacta ticket.
I’m hoping for a stable value on #3 Enjoyable With Flags, who has made all 4 of her earlier begins in France with three wins and a second within the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre. She’s received at distances starting from 7 ½ furlongs to 1 ¼ miles on turf starting from tender to heavy. This can be a important step up in school however I really feel assured she’ll love the space and anticipated softer floor.
I even have a ton of respect for #7 She Feels Fairly, who received her season debut by 5 ¾ lengths on turf rated good in a stakes race on Preakness Stakes weekend at Pimlico. That was her first begin since she completed third, crushed by a half-length within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf after profitable a Grade 1 race at Woodbine earlier in her 2-year-old season, additionally on turf rated good. I believe she likes a little bit of give within the turf and, anticipate the fashionable She Feels Fairly to run effectively.
Beneath, I plan to make use of #2 Dynamic Pricing coming off a win on yielding turf within the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes Offered by TwinSpires on the Longines Kentucky Oaks undercard at Churchill Downs for elite U.S. turf coach Chad Brown.
I really feel higher about beating Cinderella’s Dream within the exacta than leaving her out of my trifecta, so I’ll deal with an exacta technique for the Belmont Oaks.
Exacta Technique on a $12 Price range
$3 exacta 3,7 with 2,3,7 ($12)
What to say on the betting window: Belmont on the Massive A, Race 9, $3 exacta half wheel, 3,7 with 2,3,7
Exacta Technique on a $40 Price range
$10 exacta 3,7 with 2,3,7 ($40)
What to say on the betting window: Belmont on the Massive A, Race 9, $10 exacta half wheel, 3,7 with 2,3,7
