We’re across the midway level of the 2024 season. Commerce season continues to be a few weeks from getting absolutely underway. It’s an opportune time to refresh our upcoming free agent class rating.
That is the second of a minimum of three installments we’ll do all through the season. Steve Adams dealt with our preliminary write-up of the highest 10 gamers in mid-April. That is our try to seize a participant’s incomes energy, so age is an enormous issue. This isn’t strictly a listing of one of the best gamers within the class, although expertise is the place to begin. There’s no change within the high two spots, however the previous few months have shuffled the following tiers.
Our energy rankings are compiled collaboratively. For this installment, I labored with Steve and Darragh McDonald, with enter from MLBTR founder and proprietor Tim Dierkes. Gamers with opt-out clauses and participant choices are eligible for the listing. Stats are updated via June 26.
1. Juan Soto, OF, Yankees
No shock right here. Soto has been the crown jewel for years and can probably go wire-to-wire as the highest impending free agent. He continues to construct what seems to be like a future Corridor of Fame résumé. Soto has been an elite hitter since he debuted as a 19-year-old with the Nationals. That carried over upon his first blockbuster commerce to the Padres and hasn’t modified within the Large Apple.
Soto is on tempo for one of the best season of his profession. He’s hitting .303/.434/.567 throughout 357 plate appearances. As measured by wRC+, that offense is 85 share factors higher than the league common and can be a private excessive over a 162-game schedule. Soto has extra walks than strikeouts for a fifth straight season. He already has 19 homers, permitting him to exceed final yr’s career-high 35 lengthy balls.
Not solely is Soto one of many high three hitters in baseball, he’s firmly in his prime. He’ll play all of subsequent season at 26, making him three to 4 years youthful than a typical free agent. A signing workforce can realistically anticipate Soto to stay a top-flight hitter for the primary seven to 10 years of a megadeal. Whereas the calling card is the bat, Soto has turned in first rate defensive marks within the Bronx. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have credited him as a barely above-average proper fielder this season.
Soto turned down a reported $440M extension supply from the Nats a number of years in the past — a choice that more and more seems to be prefer it’ll repay handsomely. Yankees proprietor Hal Steinbrenner has spoken of a willingness to barter an extension through the season, but it surely’d be surprising if Soto doesn’t take a look at the market. (The outfielder himself recommended as a lot on Tuesday.) The Yankees will definitely make a run at retaining him, whereas groups just like the Mets, Dodgers, Giants, and many others. determine to be concerned.
Soto can be three years youthful than Shohei Ohtani was throughout his free company. Soto isn’t prone to settle for a cope with the type of deferrals that Ohtani took, however he ought to handily beat the approximate $461M web current worth of the Ohtani contract. He ought to high half a billion {dollars}, and it wouldn’t be stunning if his camp on the Boras Company aimed for one thing near $600M at the beginning of the winter.
2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles
Burnes has been the highest pitcher within the class for a while. He broke out with a 2.11 ERA through the shortened 2020 season and backed that up with an MLB-best 2.43 ERA with 234 strikeouts over 28 begins to assert the NL Cy Younger the next yr. Burnes punched out an NL-leading 243 hitter the next season earlier than delivering a 3.39 earned run common throughout his remaining season in Milwaukee.
The Brewers traded the three-time All-Star to Baltimore earlier than his remaining yr of arbitration. Whereas Milwaukee has gotten good work out of rookie infielder Joey Ortiz (and purchased hard-throwing lefty DL Corridor), the O’s can’t remorse how the commerce has performed out. Burnes owns a 2.35 ERA throughout 99 2/3 innings. He’s on his technique to a fifth straight top-10 Cy Younger end and ought to be a candidate to win the award once more.
Not like with Soto, one can a minimum of discover a yellow flag on Burnes’ stat sheet. His swing-and-miss fee has dropped during the last yr and a half. Burnes struck out greater than 30% of batters every season from 2020-22. Amongst pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch, solely Carlos Rodón had a better strikeout share than Burnes’ 33.4% mark. That dipped to 25.5% a yr in the past and at the moment sits at 23.9%, his lowest fee since his 2018 rookie marketing campaign. He’s getting fewer whiffs on his cutter and curveball than he did in 2021-22.
Groups will a minimum of pay attention to the drop-off in whiffs, but it surely’s not prone to have too detrimental an impact on Burnes’ market. His 95 MPH cutter velocity continues to be as robust as ever. The underside-line outcomes are among the many finest within the league. Burnes has pristine command, and it is rather troublesome for opponents to sq. up whilst they get a number of extra balls in play. Whereas each pitcher comes with some degree of well being danger, Burnes’ solely injured listing stint within the final three and a half years resulted from a optimistic COVID take a look at.
Burnes will play all of subsequent season at age 30. Aaron Nola landed seven years and $172M final offseason going into his age-31 marketing campaign. Burnes is a greater pitcher. He ought to be capable of discover an eight-year deal that additionally runs via his age-37 season, and there’s an opportunity he will get to 9 years. Whereas Burnes will most likely come up shy of the nine-year, $324M deal that Gerrit Cole landed a number of years in the past, he shouldn’t have a lot subject surpassing the $200M mark and will beat $250M.
3. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers
Adames is the most important riser from the earlier iteration of this listing. We had him eighth within the class two months in the past. Adames has since emerged because the clear high shortstop and arguably one of the best infielder. The Brewers shortstop has rebounded from a pedestrian offensive season and is on tempo for one of the best yr of his profession.
Over 353 plate appearances, the Dominican-born infielder owns a .238/.331/.423 slash line. He has 13 dwelling runs and attracts walks at a personal-high 12.2% clip. Most significantly, Adames is hanging out 21% of the time. That’s trending as simply the bottom strikeout fee of his profession. Whiffs have been the most important query for the righty-hitting infielder. If he’s hanging out at a league-average tempo, his recreation hasn’t many weaknesses.
Adames has reached 20 dwelling runs in all 4 full schedules he’s performed. Barring damage, he’ll surpass that once more and certain finish in his customary 25-30 homer vary. Whereas Milwaukee’s American Household Subject boosts energy numbers, Adames has strong exit velocities and will get numerous balls within the air. He has an honest strategy and has incrementally improved his contact fee, significantly on pitches inside the strike zone.
Even when Adames is extra of a superb hitter than an elite one, he’s a serious asset on the opposite facet of the ball. DRS and Statcast have graded him as one of many sport’s finest infielders during the last six seasons. DRS has been downgraded on his protection this season, but Statcast has had no qualms. Most groups will view him as a plus or higher defender, a minimum of for the following few years. Adames turns 29 in September and will stay a sure-handed infielder with a superb arm into his early-mid 30s.
On high of the well-rounded manufacturing, Adames has drawn rave opinions from teammates and coaches in each Tampa Bay and Milwaukee for his clubhouse acumen. It’s the type of management and intangibles groups love from a franchise shortstop. Gamers like Trevor Story, Javier Báez and Dansby Swanson all landed six- or seven-year offers between $140M and $177M with the same profile. None of these contracts have labored out fairly because the signing workforce hoped — the Story and Báez offers have been unmitigated disasters — which may give groups pause. But these examples present the worth groups place on a plus defensive shortstop with sufficient energy to hit within the center to the higher third of a batting order.
4. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros
Bregman’s platform yr began quite inauspiciously. He hit .219/.280/.372 via the top of Could, a stretch that briefly relegated him so far as sixth within the Houston batting order. Bregman was not solely doing his market no favors, he was a serious contributor to the Astros’ horrible begin to the season.
Fortunes modified in June for the workforce and the gamers alike. Bregman owns a .341/.404/.494 line via 94 plate appearances this month. His general season slash continues to be pretty pedestrian, weighed down by his early-season swoon. He’s rounding into type, although, and he stays one of many class’s finest hitters (non-Soto division).
Bregman has been an above-average hitter in all 9 seasons of his profession. His 41-homer season from 2019 seems to be like a transparent outlier a minimum of partially attributable to the juiced ball. Bregman has gone from an MVP candidate to “merely” an excellent on a regular basis third baseman. Over the previous 5 seasons, he carries a .260/.355/.437 batting line — a wRC+ that checks in 23 share factors higher than the league common.
Some groups may take subject with Bregman’s batted-ball profile. He has by no means had large uncooked energy that interprets into eye-popping exit velocities. His recreation has been constructed round a pristine strike zone really feel and an innate skill to tug the ball within the air, maximizing his energy. This yr’s 35.9% laborious contact fee is under common. Bregman’s stroll fee has additionally fallen sharply as he’s gotten slightly extra aggressive, and pitchers have attacked him within the strike zone with increased frequency.
Bregman may wind up being one thing of a divisive free agent. The batted-ball knowledge and drop-in walks may strike some golf equipment as a harbinger of decline. Bregman’s camp will level to his preternatural contact expertise, strong third base protection, wonderful sturdiness, and standing as one of many faces of a workforce that has gotten to the ALCS in seven straight seasons. Bregman turns 31 round Opening Day and nonetheless has a shot at a six- or seven-year deal that might push into the $150M vary (or additional, if he can proceed his blistering June tempo).
5. Max Fried, SP, Braves
A former seventh-overall decide, Fried has been a top-of-the-rotation arm for many of his time in Atlanta. He turned in a 4.02 ERA in his first full season in 2019. The southpaw hasn’t allowed greater than 3.04 earned runs per 9 in any of the 5 seasons since then. Fried acquired off to a rocky begin this yr, surrendering 11 runs in 5 innings over his first two outings. Set these apart, and he’s regarded higher than ever. Over his final 13 begins, he carries a 2.12 ERA, averaging 6.53 innings per recreation and holding opponents to a .191/.255/.254 batting line.
The way in which Fried succeeds is considerably unconventional. He doesn’t miss bats on the degree usually related to an ace. Fried has punched out 23.8% of his opponents in his profession and carries a 22.3% strikeout fee this season. That’s strong however not overwhelming. He excels behind plus command and elite contact administration. Fried is routinely close to the league’s high in limiting opponents’ exit velocities. He has by no means posted a ground-ball fee decrease than 50% and is racking up grounders at an enormous 60.6% clip this season.
Fried isn’t a peak Dallas Keuchel or Kyle Hendricks sort who thrived regardless of middling velocity. He throws sufficiently laborious, averaging almost 94 MPH on his four-seam and sinker. His mid-70s curveball isn’t a power-breaking pitch, but it surely generates a lot motion that hitters have by no means been capable of sq. it up. Statcast credit him with seven distinct choices. He leans most closely on the four-seam, curve, sinker and changeup.
Some groups may draw back from paying top-of-the-market cash to a pitcher who doesn’t have elite whiff charges. Others may have some considerations about Fried’s arm well being. He misplaced three months of the 2023 season to a forearm pressure. (He additionally had Tommy John surgical procedure on his résumé, though that got here again in 2015 when he was a prospect.) Whereas Fried has regarded no worse for put on, that provides slightly further danger for an funding starting in his age-31 season.
Fried’s camp will most likely view the Nola and Rodón (six years, $162M) offers as comparability factors. Fried is a Southern California native, which has led some to invest he may want to signal with a workforce on the West Coast, although he hasn’t publicly tipped his hand on any geographical preferences. He and the Braves have mentioned extension phrases a number of occasions over time with out coming to an settlement.
6. Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers
Fried’s highschool teammate is the primary participant on this top-10 who didn’t crack the listing in April. He was considered one of a number of rebound beginning pitching targets within the class. Flaherty has pulled away from the group with a dominant first three months to his Detroit tenure. By way of 14 begins, he carries a 2.92 earned run common. He has punched out a 3rd of opposing hitters with an enormous 14.2% swinging-strike fee.
It’s Flaherty’s best-sustained stretch for the reason that second half of the 2019 season when he appeared to be breaking out as probably the greatest pitchers within the recreation. The intervening 4 years had been largely disappointments. Flaherty struggled to a 4.91 ERA through the shortened 2020 schedule. He misplaced prolonged chunks of the following two seasons to shoulder issues. The righty prevented the injured listing final yr however regarded like a shell of his former self. He allowed almost 5 earned runs per 9 with a roughly 22.8% strikeout fee between the Cardinals and Orioles. Baltimore used him in reduction at occasions down the stretch.
MLBTR predicted Flaherty would land a mid-level three-year deal final offseason. Given his youth, that will’ve supplied him a life-changing payday whereas nonetheless permitting him to return to the market forward of his age-31 season. As a substitute, he wager on himself and took a straight one-year pact. That appears prefer it’ll pay out handsomely. A nine-figure contract could possibly be on the desk. He’ll play subsequent season at age 29 and has a shot at 5 and even six years. Given the volatility of his profession, it wouldn’t be with out danger, however Flaherty arguably has a better ceiling than any starter within the class past Burnes and Fried.
Like everybody else on this listing, Flaherty can obtain a qualifying supply. He’s likelier than some other high free brokers to be traded this summer time, which might take the QO off the desk. (Gamers traded midseason can not obtain a qualifying supply.) The Tigers are nonetheless on the periphery of wild-card rivalry however haven’t hit sufficient to be a bona fide contender. A deadline deal would enable Flaherty to hit free company unencumbered by draft compensation.
7. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
Alonso stays one of many sport’s preeminent energy hitters. He has hit a minimum of 37 homers in his 4 full seasons (and was on a 43-homer tempo through the shortened season). He’s not fairly at that degree this yr, connecting on 16 homers with a .465 slugging mark. That places him at a 33-homer tempo, though it wouldn’t be stunning if he outperformed that through the summer time months.
Groups know what they’re getting with Alonso. He’s extremely sturdy and has solely had two minimal injured listing stints as an enormous leaguer. He’s prone to hit 35+ homers in the midst of the lineup. The common and on-base marks are pretty pedestrian, however nobody has extra dwelling runs than Alonso since he got here into the league in 2019. Although his laborious contact fee and common exit velocity are extra peculiar than anticipated, nobody questions his skill to hit for energy in any stadium.
Alonso has a case because the second-best offensive participant within the class. There’s not a lot worth in the remainder of the profile. He’s a below-average baserunner and a restricted defender. Defensive Runs Saved has graded him as a mean first baseman over the course of his profession; Statcast has him under common with the glove. Alonso is coming into his age-30 season and can probably attempt to beat the contracts of Matt Olson (eight years, $168M) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162M with deferrals). He may want to maneuver to designated hitter halfway via a five- or six-year pact.
The Mets have maintained they wish to hold their franchise first baseman. Alonso reportedly declined a seven-year, $158M extension supply through the 2023 season. (He’s incomes $20.5M this season in his remaining arbitration yr, so he’d “solely” have to high $137.5M to return out forward on that call.) That reported supply got here earlier than the Mets employed David Stearns as president of baseball operations. The edges appear content material to desk discussions a few long-term deal till Alonso can discipline gives from different groups. He appeared like a commerce candidate when the Mets floundered early within the season. That’s tougher to check now that New York has returned to the wild-card race.
8. Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Padres
Kim is among the high defensive gamers within the class. Public metrics have given him robust grades for his work across the infield. The Padres favored Kim’s glove sufficient to totally decide to him as their shortstop this yr, bumping Xander Bogaerts to the suitable facet of the second base bag.
The offensive profile isn’t as thrilling. Kim is an honest hitter whose recreation is constructed round wonderful strike zone consciousness and pure contact expertise. Kim has walked almost as usually as he has gone down on strikes. A dismal .236 batting common on balls in play has depressed his general output, as he’s hitting .223/.333/.385 throughout 328 plate appearances. Whereas there’s absolutely some poor fortune in that mark, Kim’s batted-ball metrics aren’t spectacular. Whereas a career-high, this season’s 35.5% laborious contact fee continues to be a few factors under common. The South Korean native is on tempo to high final yr’s personal-high 17 dwelling runs, however he’ll most likely by no means be an enormous energy risk.
After a poor first season on the MLB degree, Kim was value round 4 wins above substitute yearly within the subsequent two years. He’s on the same tempo in 2024. There’s most likely not far more when it comes to untapped upside. Nonetheless, Kim’s mixture of contact expertise, protection and baserunning (he has 53 stolen bases over the previous two seasons) make him an above-average common. He’s going into his age-29 season and will land a five-year contract in free company.
9. Nick Pivetta, SP, Pink Sox
One of many extra risky pitchers within the class, Pivetta has considerably quietly excelled over the previous calendar yr. The suitable-hander’s efficiency has lengthy lagged behind the standard of his stuff. It appeared as if he may all the time be too inconsistent regardless of flashing mid-rotation potential. As just lately as final Could, he regarded like he may pitch his approach off the Pink Sox roster totally.
Issues lastly clicked for Pivetta after the Sox kicked him to the bullpen in mid-Could final yr. The previous fourth-round draftee dominated in a multi-inning reduction function. He continued overpowering hitters after the Sox returned him to the rotation for the ultimate six weeks of the ’23 marketing campaign. Pivetta has labored completely out of the rotation in 2024 and continues to be posting a gaudy strikeout and stroll profile.
Over 11 begins, he owns a 4.06 earned run common. Pivetta has fanned 27.2% of batters confronted towards a 6.4% stroll fee. He’s giving up a lofty 1.87 dwelling runs per 9 innings, resulting in an unimpressive 4.42 FIP. Metrics normalizing HR/FB are way more bullish (3.43 SIERA, 3.56 xFIP). The lengthy ball has all the time been a problem and is a key motive he has by no means posted a sub-4.00 ERA season within the huge leagues. But it’s doable a workforce falls in love with the stuff and the strikeouts.
Relationship again to final yr’s preliminary bullpen conversion, Pivetta touts a 3.48 ERA with a 32.1% strikeout fee throughout 160 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .202/.263/.388 in 639 plate appearances. Pivetta misplaced round a month to a flexor pressure in his forearm this season. That’s a possible concern, however there wasn’t any structural harm and he has held up since being reinstated on Could 8. Outdoors of virus-related placements, that was Pivetta’s first injured listing stint in his MLB profession. If the forearm subject is within the rearview, he seems to be like a quantity innings eater with the stuff to be a No. 3 starter. Even going into his age-32 marketing campaign, he’s acquired a shot at a four-year deal if he can maintain this Ok-BB% and hold his ERA at an inexpensive degree.
10. Luis Severino, SP, Mets
Severino jumped throughout city after a horrible remaining season with the Yankees. The 2-time All-Star signed with the Mets on a pillow contract that assured him $13M. The early returns are good. Severino has turned in a 3.29 ERA whereas averaging six innings per begin via his first 15 outings. It’s a marked enchancment from the 6.65 ERA that ended his time within the Bronx.
If one regarded no additional than the ERA, it’d be simple to conclude that Severino is again to the No. 2/No. 3 type he’d proven for many of his Yankee tenure. It’s not that easy. Severino hasn’t recaptured the swing-and-miss stuff that primarily evaporated after 2022. This yr’s 19% strikeout fee matched his 18.9% mark a season in the past. His 8.5% swinging-strike share is down barely from final season and trending in direction of a private low. Somewhat than overpowering hitters the way in which he as soon as did, Severino has gotten by with dramatically higher batted-ball outcomes than throughout his remaining season with the Yankees.
The 30-year-old deserves some credit score for that. Severino has included a sinker that he’s utilizing round 1 / 4 of the time. Whereas the pitch doesn’t miss bats, it has helped improve his ground-ball fee to a career-high 50.8% clip. Hitters have additionally had a considerably tougher time squaring up his four-seam fastball than final season. Severino has mentioned he believed he was tipping his pitches final yr.
There’s definitely some fortune on this yr’s outcomes. Opponents hit .326 on balls in play final season; that’s all the way in which all the way down to .252. His dwelling runs per fly-ball fee has greater than halved (from 20.9% to 9.4%). That’s not all luck, but it surely’d be too optimistic to wave away the function of batted ball variance totally. As is usually the case, the reality lies between the previous two seasons.
Severino is just not prone to safe the type of nine-figure deal that after appeared attainable until he dramatically improves the whiff fee. Nonetheless, there’s sufficient to love within the profile to warrant a three- or probably four-year contract. Gamers like Taijuan Walker ($72M) and Jameson Taillon ($68M) landed four-year ensures of round $70M with comparable profession arcs. They’d been former high prospects who as soon as regarded like potential top-end arms earlier than settling in as mid-rotation varieties with out many strikeouts. Severino, who turns 31 in February, could possibly be following that trajectory. He’ll be eligible for a qualifying supply until the Mets commerce him.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Cody Bellinger*, Matt Chapman*, Gerrit Cole *^, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernández, Clay Holmes, Danny Jansen, Max Kepler, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar, Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, Christian Walker
* Denotes ineligible for a qualifying supply
^ Cole can choose out of the remaining 4 years and $144M on his contract at season’s finish, although if he alerts his intent to take action, the Yankees can override his opt-out by tacking on a tenth yr at one other $36M. As a result of Cole was solely just lately reinstated from the injured listing and since the Yankees can successfully veto his opt-out, we’re not together with him on this installment. If, because the season wears on, he’s pitching nicely sufficient to set off that opt-out and there’s speak of the Yankees permitting him to stroll, he may land on future iterations.
