All 32 NFL groups ranked by Tremendous Bowl probabilities to start out the season

September 5, 2024

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The fantastic thing about the Nationwide Soccer League is that after an offseason of hope for all 32 groups, every thing will get settled on the sector. Issues like preseason rankings play no position in figuring out which two groups sq. off on the finish of the yr, and who stays standing, holding the Lombardi Trophy aloft.

That doesn’t imply, after all, that preseason rankings don’t make for excellent content material.

Following a rigorous voting course of, with ballots submitted by a bunch of SB Nation’s NFL specialists, listed here are our rankings for all 32 groups, sorted by their probability at being that one group left standing on the finish of the season.

32. New York Giants

It’s exhausting to think about the Giants being again in mediocrity, however right here we’re. The first concern with this group is that they really feel rudderless and directionless in Brian Daboll’s third season as head coach. It actually helps that he’s taking on playcalling duties, however there’s no a part of Daniel Jones’ recreation that implies he can execute on a imaginative and prescient.

In the meantime there are some stable items on protection right here, significantly within the move rush — however that doesn’t make this image a lot brighter.

31. New England Patriots

New England Patriots v Washington Commanders

The primary objective in New England this season?

Get to the top of the yr believing that Drake Maye is the long-term reply at quarterback.

All the pieces else is icing on the cake that appears to be an extended yr.

30. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are firmly in the midst of a rework, and no person actually has any hopes they’ll really win a Tremendous Bowl this yr. A modest goal can be hitting .500 and perhaps pushing for a playoff spot from there — however they’re nonetheless a while off.

All the pieces comes all the way down to new head coach Dave Canales. He labored his offensive magic in Tampa Bay to show Baker Mayfield right into a playoff quarterback, however the Carolina roster is considerably weaker top-to-bottom. It’ll be an attention-grabbing experiment to see how this all pans out.

29. Las Vegas Raiders

Gardner Minshew emerged victorious over Aidan O’Connell within the Las Vegas Raiders’ coaching camp quarterback battle.

What which means for the Las Vegas offense going ahead stays to be seen, but it surely additionally means we’re probably going to get extra unimaginable pictures of the latest Raiders quarterback. Which is an efficient factor.

28. Denver Broncos

The pairing of Bo Nix and Sean Payton, on paper, appears to be the proper partnership between coach and quarterback. Nix appears to be like like he was inbuilt a lab to play quarterback for Payton, and the skilled head coach is hoping he has in Nix a modernized model of Drew Brees: A quarterback that may run his offense, make the appropriate selections with the soccer, clear up the surprising issues that come enjoying the place, and sprinkle in some athleticism alongside the way in which.

It would take a while for this group to gel, however the arrow is trending up on the offensive aspect of the ball in Denver.

Protection, nevertheless, is one other query.

27. Washington Commanders

This can be a group dedicated to constructing, and to that finish this group has made some actually stable strikes. The core drawback is that you just make a really particular resolution in regards to the route of your offense once you rent Kliff Kingsbury, and it’s wild to have his offensive sensibilities paired with an old-fashioned defensive coach like Dan Quinn.

Kingsbury’s offense places immense stress on the quarterback, and that paired with a weight of expectations in Washington is rather a lot for Jaylen Daniels to bear. Anticipating early success is a idiot’s errand right here, they usually’ll want a while to construct this the appropriate approach.

26. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody actually know something in regards to the New Orleans Saints? This group appears to nonetheless be reeling from Sean Payton’s departure in 2021, and has no actual identification in his absence.

The Saints are roughly simply floating alongside beneath Dennis Allen, rearranging deck chairs whereas the ship takes on increasingly water. That is nonetheless a group that may win, however with key accidents, expertise misplaced to free company, and Derek Carr at QB it makes it troublesome to be bullish about New Orleans in 2024.

25. Arizona Cardinals

The jury continues to be out on head coach Jonathan Gannon, and that can outline the Cardinals probabilities in 2024. It stays to be seen if Gannon is really the defensive genius who helped propel the Eagles to a Tremendous Bowl win, or whether or not he was a man in the appropriate place on the proper time.

It’s too early to be that involved about Gannon, however Arizona should be a rattling sight higher than thirty first within the NFL in factors allowed to be something near a contender. A wholesome Kyler Murray paired with Marvin Harrison Jr. ought to make the Cardinals thrilling to observe, and that in itself is progress.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers

The quarterback competitors in Pittsburgh got here all the way down to Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, two quarterbacks seen as castoffs by different organizations.

The protection will probably be good, of that there isn’t any doubt. Head coach Mike Tomlin obtained this group to the playoffs a season in the past with an amalgamation of Kenny Pickett, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph beneath heart. So they aren’t to be ignored. However in a troublesome division, and even harder convention, the trail to a Tremendous Bowl for Pittsburgh appears arduous.

23. Minnesota Vikings

The deliberate “aggressive rebuild” of the Vikings went up in smoke. This group wanted a rework, they usually did it over the offseason. There’s nonetheless the basics of Vikings soccer: Nice receivers and a stable move rush, however in quite a lot of methods the secondary continues to be a multitude because it has been for years in Minnesota.

It’s troublesome to see 2024 as far more than a punt for discipline place. This group is ready till J.J. McCarthy is able to turn out to be their franchise QB, and it’s troublesome to see them actually making a lot noise with Sam Darnold at QB. That mentioned, the Vikings might be higher than lots of people are giving them credit score for.

22. Tennessee Titans

The Titans are an attention-grabbing group. Whereas they spent huge on free brokers similar to wideout Calvin Ridley and nook L’Jarius Sneed, the query marks nonetheless stay at sign caller. Second-year QB Will Levis has the instruments and ability place expertise round him to make the leap this yr, however has to iron out inconsistent ball placement and responses to stress. New head coach Brian Callahan ought to assist, although; he was instrumental in getting QB Jake Browning up to the mark in Cincinnati.

This group has all of the makings of a playoff-caliber squad defensively, however till the quarterback exhibits indicators of enchancment, they’ll be caught right here.

21. Seattle Seahawks

Pete Carroll continues to be a mammoth determine contained in the Seahawks group, even when he’s stepped into an government position. The franchise made an incredible resolution to rent Mike McDonald as head coach, however this additionally looks like a franchise content material to know their scenario proper now.

Seattle has a lot younger expertise, however they’re not making the error of speeding the method and working headfirst into the Niners. They’ll bide their time, hope that window closes, they usually can strike out with a brand new long-term franchise QB after Geno Smith hangs it up. That’s an excellent technique, however results in measured success in 2024.

20. Los Angeles Chargers

This season from the Los Angeles Chargers will go a great distance in direction of answering this query: Is the working recreation again in right now’s NFL? Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL, and the anticipated emphasis on the working recreation in Los Angeles, will definitely put that query to the check.

In any case, certainly one of Harbaugh’s first huge selections this offseason? Drafting offensive sort out Joe Alt.

Our mates at Bolts from the Blue described this as a possible “sea change” for the Chargers. Time will inform if it really works.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The destiny of the Buccaneers this season is tied to what their offense appears to be like like. That is nonetheless a group with one of many league’s finest receiving tandems in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, however there’s a mammoth adjustment to be made with offensive coordinator Dave Canales heading to Carolina and taking WR Coach Brad Idzik with him.

Tampa Bay may nonetheless be one of the best all-around group within the NFC South, but it surely actually hinges on their teaching modifications whether or not this yr is usually a success or not.

18. Chicago Bears

It’s been a very long time for the reason that vibes have been this good in Chicago. Caleb Williams has reworked the temper round this group in a single day because the youth motion is totally underway for the Bears.

Early returns on Williams and fellow rookie Rome Odunze are astounding, however Bears followers ought to pump the brakes just a bit on rapid success. The Texans turnaround in 2023 reshaped how fanbases anticipate speedy return — however they have been the exception, not the rule. The Bears are nonetheless just a little methods off being true contenders, so this season ought to be about incremental enchancment and constructing.

17. Indianapolis Colts

Typically picked as a classy group to make the playoffs after lacking the playoffs by one recreation, the Colts are trending within the route of significant January soccer. GM Chris Ballard’s constant drafting of high tier athletes is beginning to repay, with the event path coming to the proper cease in 2024.

The important key to their success is QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson made some strides final yr, exhibiting his huge potential earlier than lacking the remainder of the season as a result of damage. If his growth continues to be on the quick observe, the Colts’ offense turns into extra dynamic with he and working again Jonathan Taylor within the backfield. The ceiling for Indy is extremely excessive—however can they attain it this yr?

16. Atlanta Falcons

Probably the most unlikely group to smash the “win now” button, the Falcons have undergone a large transformation from the group they ended the season as. The group made an enormous splash in free company by signing Kirk Cousins to an enormous contract that screamed “we wish to contend proper now,” and at the least on paper they’ve the roster to have the ability to contend within the NFC.

The issue: That is the Atlanta Falcons. For higher and worse they’re going to search out methods to shock you. When the mud settles this might both be a group within the NFC Championship recreation, or 5-12. Neither consequence can be shocking in any respect.

15. New York Jets

On paper, the New York Jets have sufficient expertise to be severe contenders within the AFC. With a rebuilt offensive line in entrance of Aaron Rodgers and playmakers in any respect ranges of the protection, in addition to within the offensive huddle subsequent to Rodgers, this might be a really aggressive group.

Nevertheless, there may be additionally a non-zero probability the wheels fall off by Halloween.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars

After falling flat on their face to finish the 2023 season, the Jaguars are on a revenge tour in hopes of constructing the playoffs in 2024. All of it begins on offense, the place the Jaguars revamped their offense to throw the ball downfield much more. Including WR Gabe Davis from the Payments will give them an even bigger physique over the center, and drafting WR Brian Thomas Jr within the first spherical offers them a field-tilting pace they haven’t had in a very long time. The query is that if they will shield QB Trevor Lawrence, nevertheless. The offensive line struggled final yr to get any push within the run recreation and safety within the passing recreation, however with vet heart Mitch Morse now holding down the pivot, the hope is the inside will get fastened.

DC Ryan Nielsen comes over from Atlanta and modifications the Jaguars again to an attacking, four-down entrance. With the continued development of EDGE Travon Walker, CB Tyson Campbell and S Andre Cisco, this protection could be prepared for the playoffs.

13. Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay’s group resides on borrowed time. It’s unclear when the wheels will fall off Matthew Stafford, however the Rams are going to maintain working it again till he’s really executed. This season provides the mammoth problem of changing the irreplaceable after Aaron Donald retired from soccer.

This was a group that obtained a hoop, it achieved its objective. Now they’re simply enjoying all of it out till they should rebuild. McVay continues to be among the best coaches within the league although, in order that they have quite a lot of latitude shifting ahead — but it surely’s troublesome to be bullish for a group sharing a division with the San Francisco 49ers.

12. Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins ought to once more have one of the vital explosive offenses in all of soccer. With Tua Tagovailoa working the present, Mike McDaniel drawing up the ideas, and the pace this group has within the offensive huddle, scoring factors shouldn’t be an issue.

The most important concern we’ve in regards to the Dolphins? Can they win when it counts. Final yr Miami obtained off to a 9-3 begin and was in management within the AFC East, solely to fumble the division away and in the end lose on the street in frigid Kansas Metropolis over Wild Card Weekend. Is that this the yr they lastly put an entire season collectively?

11. Cincinnati Bengals

Getting a wholesome Joe Burrow again is clearly an enormous step ahead for the Cincinnati Bengals and their Tremendous Bowl aspirations. Bengals followers will hope to see Ja’Marr Chase alongside him right here in Week 1, however this appears to be like to be a really gifted offense.

The questions linger on the defensive aspect of the soccer. Can they cease the run when they should? How will the brand new security duo maintain up?

And the way will the items all slot in a stout AFC North?

10. Cleveland Browns

The offensive line is among the finest in soccer. The protection has playmakers in any respect three ranges and is led by Myles Garrett, one of the vital feared defenders within the recreation.

All of it comes all the way down to Deshaun Watson. Is that this the yr he lastly delivers for the Cleveland Browns?

9. Dallas Cowboys

That is it. All the pieces is on the road for the Cowboys in 2024, and if this goes belly-up there are some brutal selections down the street. There’s by no means been a query about Dallas’ expertise on paper. This group has a Prime 10 QB (Prime 5 relying on who you ask), a professional game-breaking receiver, one of the vital dominant move rushers within the recreation, and a stable offensive line besides.

The query is whether or not the Cowboys can get out of their very own approach. This group is snake bit in terms of getting over the hump and enjoying in a Tremendous Bowl. The query this season is whether or not everybody can rally collectively and make this complete factor work. Because it stands it is a group that might both be 13-4, or begin 0-5, fireplace their coach, and rebuild the entire thing. These are the stakes at play.

8. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles needed to content material with rather a lot in 2023. There was a really particular Tremendous Bowl hangover at work, however extra importantly this group seemed prefer it was by no means actually comfy shifting on from Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon.

That modifications now. The Eagles have gone huge with names at offensive and defensive coordinator with Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio respectively, and their stage of expertise ought to be sufficient to push Philly again to being contenders, as a result of their roster is simply too rattling good. The one hesitation is whether or not Moore has the offensive creativity to finest make the most of Jalen Hurts, however it is a pretty small concern within the grand scheme of issues.

7. Inexperienced Bay Packers

It’s wild that this group has executed it once more. The Packers managed to seamlessly transition from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, and now from Rodgers to Jordan Love.

Rumors of the Packers demise have been significantly exaggerated. The truth is, Inexperienced Bay appears to be like higher beneath Love that the tail finish of the Rodgers period, and the group is responding effectively. It’s unclear in the event that they’re fairly able to problem the Lions atop the NFC North, however they’re actually ok to get into the playoffs.

6. Buffalo Payments

All the pieces begins with Josh Allen. So long as the Payments have #17 within the huddle, they’ve a shot.

They’ll must get manufacturing from a reworked vast receiver room, and a few new faces should step up on the defensive aspect of the soccer. The damage to Matt Milano looms giant, particularly with a few of the offenses Buffalo will see this season.

But when nothing else, Allen can discover a solution to will this group again to the playoffs.

5. Houston Texans

Houston is doing precisely what you need to do when you recognize you may have a very good rookie QB on a rookie deal. After CJ Stroud lit up the NFL en path to an Offensive Rookie of the Yr trophy and a run to the divisional spherical of the playoffs, Houston masses up on each side of the ball to turn out to be a severe menace within the AFC. EDGE Danielle Hunter is available in to pair with reigning Defensive Rookie of the Yr Will Anderson to kind a fearsome EDGE duo. WR Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston from Buffalo to present Stroud one more weapon within the passing recreation. RB Joe Mixon helps along with his continuity within the vast zone offense.

There are questions, nevertheless. Largely regression from the offense. Stroud led the NFL in TD/INT ratio as a rookie, so there’s sure to be some regression…proper? Proper? Can the offense run the ball successfully this yr, when at occasions final yr they couldn’t transfer the ball on the bottom?

It won’t matter, particularly if the protection performs rather a lot higher. This group is trying to make a Tremendous Bowl run, they usually could be headed that approach.

4. Baltimore Ravens

On paper, the Baltimore Ravens look imposing as soon as once more. Two-time MVP winner Lamar Jackson paired with Derrick Henry within the offensive backfield? That may give defensive coordinators rather a lot to fret about every week.

There are questions, after all. How will the protection fare with Mike Macdonald in Seattle? How will this reworked offensive line carry out in entrance of that duo within the backfield? Can Baltimore get sufficient out of the passing recreation after they want it?

Nonetheless, it is a very, superb soccer group.

3. Detroit Lions

The Lions’ window is vast open they usually’re trying to take the following step into profitable the NFC. That path goes by way of the Niners, which makes it troublesome — however there’s rather a lot to love about Detroit as an entire soccer group. Offensively the group is elite, defensively they’re ok — and quite a lot of the current drafts have led to creating quite a few stars across the roster.

At this level it’s merely about having the mentality and perception that transforms a very good group right into a perennial contender. Dan Campbell has the mentality to maintain this group so as and objective oriented, so we merely wait to see how they reply.

2. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are working out of excuses — or, extra aptly, Kyle Shanahan is. This franchise continues to be among the best groups in the whole NFL, however in some unspecified time in the future endlessly knocking on the Tremendous Bowl door with out stepping by way of goes to wear down its welcome.

The group has executed a very good job conserving its window open for so long as potential, however rather a lot in 2024 is dependent upon whether or not Brock Purdy is absolutely “the man” at quarterback, or whether or not this group nonetheless has sufficient oomph for one more run. Regardless, the Niners are dominant and will issue once more.

1. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

No group has ever gained three-straight Tremendous Bowl titles.

Can the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs turn out to be the primary to perform this feat? They’ve the sport’s finest quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, a stout offensive line, a protection that held up their finish of the discount final season, and even perhaps some … let’s say karma … on their aspect.

Will or not it’s sufficient?