AL West 2024 forecast – by G. Scott Thomas

The Houston Astros have dominated the American League West since 2017, profitable six straight full-season titles (exempting solely the Covid-truncated schedule of 2020).

They’ll run the streak to seven in 2024, in response to my history-based prediction system.

I in contrast the report for every AL West membership throughout the previous three seasons towards the corresponding marks for 1,288 groups all through the period of free company (which started in 1976), on the lookout for parallels from the previous that may supply hints concerning the future.

I recognized the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every present group, after which examined their subsequent performances.

The 2021-2023 Astros, for instance, most carefully resembled the 1975-1977 Cincinnati Reds, the famend Large Pink Machine that gained a pair of world titles over the three-year span. The Reds subsequently went 92-69 in 1978, lacking the playoffs (although they’d have certified beneath at this time’s wild-card system).

Listed here are the collective performances of the Astros’ 50 CMs of their subsequent seasons:

My predictions are based mostly on the 4 rungs of this ladder. Every of the 50 CMs that topped .500 is value one level, with the next steps valued at two, three, and 4 factors. Houston’s whole is exactly 100 factors.

My predicted standings for the AL West are decided by the CM scores for the 5 golf equipment. The Astros emerge as a transparent favourite, with Seattle and Texas (the defending world champs, don’t overlook) duking it out for second:

• 1. Houston Astros, 100 factors

• 2. Seattle Mariners, 79 factors

• 3. Texas Rangers, 77 factors

• 4. Los Angeles Angels, 38 factors

• 5. Oakland Athletics, 10 factors

Look under for every group’s ensuing forecast, together with its 2023 report, the collective performances of its 50 CMs, and particular breakdowns of the 5 matches that got here the closest of all. Pay particular consideration to the next season for every match; that’s what’s essential right here. (You’ll encounter these parenthetical abbreviations: W signifies a World Sequence winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)

We’ll cross over to the Nationwide League East subsequent week.

A brand new installment will arrive in your e mail upon posting

• 2024 prediction factors: 100

• 2023 report: 90-72 (.556, P)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 5 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 21 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 35 of fifty

• CM #1: Reds (1975-1977) — 1978 report of 92-69 (.571)

• CM #2: Pink Sox (2003-2005) — 2006 report of 86-76 (.531)

• CM #3: Mariners (2000-2002) — 2003 report of 93-69 (.574)

• CM #4: Indians (2016-2018) — 2019 report of 93-69 (.574)

• CM #5: Cubs (2015-2017) — 2018 report of 95-68 (.583, P)

• 2024 prediction factors: 79

• 2023 report: 88-74 (.543)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 17 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 33 of fifty

• CM #1: Dodgers (1994-1996) — 1997 report of 88-74 (.543)

• CM #2: Cardinals (2017-2019) — 2020 report of 30-28 (.517, P)

• CM #3: Yankees (1982-1984) — 1985 report of 97-64 (.602)

• CM #4: Twins (2001-2003) — 2004 report of 92-70 (.568, P)

• CM #5: Rays (2017-2019) — 2020 report of 40-20 (.667, LP)

• 2024 prediction factors: 77

• 2023 report: 90-72 (.556, WLP)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 13 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 31 of fifty

• CM #1: Phillies (1991-1993) — 1994 report of 54-61 (.470)

• CM #2: Rockies (2005-2007) — 2008 report of 74-88 (.457)

• CM #3: Dodgers (1986-1988) — 1989 report of 77-83 (.481)

• CM #4: Pink Sox (2014-2016) — 2017 report of 93-69 (.574, P)

• CM #5: Padres (2018-2020) — 2021 report of 79-83 (.488)

• 2024 prediction factors: 38

• 2023 report: 73-89 (.451)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 6 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 16 of fifty

• CM #1: Athletics (1984-1986) — 1987 report of 81-81 (.500)

• CM #2: Angels (2019-2021) — 2022 report of 73-89 (.451)

• CM #3: Cubs (1990-1992) — 1993 report of 84-78 (.519)

• CM #4: Indians (1988-1990) — 1991 report of 57-105 (.352)

• CM #5: Padres (2011-2013) — 2014 report of 77-85 (.475)

• 2024 prediction factors: 10

• 2023 report: 50-112 (.309)

• Closest matches (CM): 50

• Gained World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Gained league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty

• Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 1 of fifty

• Topped .500 in subsequent season: 8 of fifty

• CM #1: Royals (2003-2005) — 2006 report of 62-100 (.383)

• CM #2: Orioles (1986-1988) — 1989 report of 87-75 (.537)

• CM #3: Cubs (1979-1981) — 1982 report of 73-89 (.451)

• CM #4: Marlins (2017-2019) — 2020 report of 31-29 (.517, P)

• CM #5: Tigers (2001-2003) — 2004 report of 72-90 (.444)