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A November survey of a deeply unsettled race

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The 2025 Academy Awards lastly have a number (and an awesome one at that) in beloved comic Conan O’Brien, however making an attempt to determine the nominations remains to be a head-scratcher at this level in awards season.

Partially as a result of lingering results of the 2023 Hollywood strikes and partly resulting from simply how funky a 12 months that is, no movie can declare to be the de-facto frontrunner for Finest Image in the best way Oppenheimer unquestionably may in 2023 and All the things In all places All At As soon as arguably may in 2022.

Actually, solely a handful of movies this 12 months even really feel like secure bets for a Finest Image nomination, a lot much less an outright win. There may be an excessive amount of left for us to find, with precursor nominations extra intriguing this 12 months than in years previous.

We don’t know the way a lot the 2024 election outcomes will issue into how Academy voters really feel, and we don’t know the way a lot inventory to place in home field workplace efficiency or American sentiment normally because the voting physique skews extra worldwide yearly. This makes the horse race to nomination morning rather more attention-grabbing than in current reminiscence, but it surely makes predicting how this goes rather more difficult.

Fairly frankly, we don’t have a lot to go off of proper now outdoors of some movies that might most definitely make the minimize in any Oscar season. With a hat-tip to The Hollywood Reporter‘s Scott Feinberg and his wonderful contender database for his prediction listing, let’s undergo the massive eight classes.

  • A Full Unknown
  • A Actual Ache
  • Anora
  • The Brutalist
  • Blitz
  • Conclave
  • Dune: Half Two
  • Emilia Pérez
  • September 5
  • Depraved

10 on the skin trying in: All We Think about As Gentle, Babygirl, Civil WarfareGladiator II, The Piano LessonThe Room Subsequent Door, Nickel Boys, Sing SingThe Seed of the Sacred FigThe Wild Robotic

  • Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
  • Sean Baker, Anora
  • Edward Berger, Conclave
  • Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
  • Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Half Two

5 on the skin trying in: Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Subsequent Door), Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Jon M. Chu (Depraved), James Mangold (A Full Unknown), Steve McQueen (Blitz)

  • Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
  • Timothée Chalamet, A Full Unknown
  • Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
  • Jesse Eisenberg, A Actual Ache
  • Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

5 on the skin trying in: Daniel Craig (Queer), Jude Regulation (The Order), Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson),

  • Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
  • Angelina Jolie, Maria
  • Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
  • Mikey Madison, Anora
  • Tilda Swinton, The Room Subsequent Door

5 on the skin trying in: Kirsten Dunst (Civil Warfare), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Arduous Truths), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Cynthia Erivo (Depraved)

  • Kieran Culkin, A Actual Ache
  • Man Pearce, The Brutalist
  • Peter Sarsgaard, September 5
  • Stanley Tucci, Conclave
  • Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

5 on the skin trying in: Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Mark Eidelstein (Anora), John Magaro (September 5), Edward Norton (A Full Unknown), Jeremy Sturdy (The Apprentice)

  • Ariana Grande, Depraved
  • Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
  • Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
  • Isabella Rosselini, Conclave
  • Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

5 on the skin trying in: Leonie Benesch (September 5), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Joan Chen (Dìdi), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)

  • Anora, Sean Baker
  • A Actual Ache, Jesse Eisenberg
  • The Brutalist, Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
  • Blitz, Steve McQueen
  • Arduous Truths, Mike Leigh

5 on the skin trying in: All We Think about As Gentle (Payal Kapadia), Babygirl (Halina Rejin), Challengers (Justin Kuritzkes), Civil Warfare (Alex Garland), September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum and Moritz Binder)

  • A Full Unknown, Jay Cocks and James Mangold
  • Conclave, Peter Straughan
  • Dune: Half Two, Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts
  • Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain and Nicolas Livecchi
  • Depraved, Winnie Holzman

5 on the skin trying in: Inside Out 2 (Dave Holstein, Meg LeFauve and Kelsey Mann), The Piano Lesson (Malcolm Washington and Virgil Williams), The Room Subsequent Door (Pedro Almodóvar), Nickel Boys (Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross), Sing Sing (Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar)

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