BloodHorse information editor Byron King presents his Derby Dozen with a evaluation of main contenders for the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve on Might 3.
King’s newest listing displays the outcomes of the Sam F. Davis Stakes held at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 8 and appears forward to a busy schedule of Derby preps held over the subsequent three weeks.
Try America’s Greatest Racing’s Triple Crown web page to maintain updated with tales and statistics on the Street to the Kentucky Derby.
1. Sovereignty
For the primary time this winter, he put collectively two revealed breezes per week aside, with a half-mile transfer at Payson Park Coaching Heart in :49.60 Feb. 7 after the same one in :49.20 Jan. 31. If he can proceed that sort of constant breeze sample, his prospects of securing the mandatory basis of coaching and readiness for 2 Kentucky Derby preps considerably improve after an erratic schedule throughout the early a part of the winter. He has tons of racing potential, notably over a traditional distance, as famous by his blow-past-the-field triumph by 5 lengths within the Oct. 27 Avenue Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs.
2. Barnes
After capturing two sprints, together with the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes, a route is on deck. Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert, a six-time Kentucky Derby winner, has indicated the Feb. 22 Insurgent Stakes at Oaklawn Park or the March 1 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park are the races into consideration. Each races are 1 1/16 miles. Barnes zipped 5 furlongs in :58.80 at Santa Anita Feb. 11, a fast transfer in his first breeze since Feb. 1.
3. East Avenue
The crushed FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA favourite swings again into motion within the Feb. 15 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes at Honest Grounds, the place he faces a dozen rivals over 1 1/8 miles. Recall this front-runner stumbled initially of the Nov. 1 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile at Del Mar and by no means challenged when ninth. His fast works counsel he’s prepared for his return, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione – who rode him in two of his three races final yr, together with in a simple victory within the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland – travels from Florida to New Orleans for the mount for coach Brendan Walsh.
4. Citizen Bull
The Eclipse Award-winning juvenile male of final yr, a wire-to-wire winner of the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, would seem more likely to resume breezing within the coming week based mostly on approximate two-week turnaround norms for Bob Baffert trainees following a race. His victory within the Robert B. Lewis was achieved simply with out early or late strain. Whereas others want qualifying factors heading towards the Might 3 Kentucky Derby, with 60 factors, Citizen Bull is already comfortably within the race based mostly on historic developments.
5. Chancer McPatrick
Final yr at 2, he received each the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes and one-mile Champagne Stakes – races wherein an abundance of Derby winners have competed by the years, although not because the early 2010s. Juvenile type shouldn’t be the prerequisite for Derby success it was many years in the past, and each races are one-turn contests that don’t take a look at stamina as a lot as two-turn routes. Assume fairly extremely of this late-running colt, regardless of his lackluster sixth in his lone two-turn begin within the slow-paced Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Deliberate begins within the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes ought to present a barometer of his two-turn routing means.
6. Burnham Sq.
Generally a coach will decide to have the Holy Bull Stakes winner skip the Fountain of Youth Stakes, as a substitute ready eight weeks for the Florida Derby. Nonetheless, coach Ian Wilkes views each the March 1 Fountain of Youth and March 29 Florida Derby as important constructing blocks for this gelding, who nonetheless confirmed some indicators of greenness within the Feb. 1 Holy Bull. “I feel this horse wants a pair extra races; you don’t need him to make errors within the Kentucky Derby,” Wilkes stated throughout the “BloodHorse Monday” podcast.
7. Journalism
After two straightforward breezes in late January, Journalism was given a stiffer, in-company work Feb. 9 in :59.80 at Santa Anita together with his Michael McCarthy-trained stablemate Phosphorescence, an older, starter-allowance turf horse. Journalism was stronger on the end, with each horses given some hand urging late and a sixteenth of a mile previous the end. The work may be seen on-line on 1/ST TV. Being by Curlin and already a twin route winner, together with the Los Alamitos Futurity, he heads to the San Felipe as considered one of that race’s key contenders.
8. Sandman
A minimize behind a few of the higher 2-year-olds final fall, ending behind Sovereignty, Jonathan’s Approach, and others, this well-bred, costly colt appears to have made strides over the winter at Oaklawn Park. He first received a Dec. 13 allowance non-compulsory claimer after which turned heads by rallying for second within the Jan. 25 Southwest Stakes after a troubled begin and broad journey. A clean post-Southwest exercise at Oaklawn in 1:01.40 Feb. 9, posted on the Kentucky Thoroughbred Affiliation web site, was achieved with out urging by his rider.
9. Coal Battle
He’s not as flashy as others within the mornings, together with his quickest five-furlong exercise this yr timed in 1:02.20 Feb. 10 at Oaklawn, however he produces within the afternoons. He’s 4-for-4 on filth, together with three stakes wins, topped by the Dec. 13 Remington Springboard Mile Stakes and the Jan. 4 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. Although the latter race was gradual – 1 1/16 miles in 1:46.43, producing an 84 Equibase Pace Determine – a sluggish tempo contributed. The Insurgent is subsequent.
10. Pace King
The Southwest had a modest opening quarter adopted by fast fractions to the half-mile and six-furlong name as American Promise dialed up the strain on Pace King. Although slow-starting Sandman minimize into Pace King’s lead down the lane, this grey and/or roan had lots left and galloped out enthusiastically. He labored 5 furlongs in 1:04 Feb. 8 at Oaklawn beneath a maintain from jockey Rafael Bejarano. Coach Ron Moquett plans a extra severe drill this week and “that’ll inform us whether or not we’re going to the Insurgent or we’re going to do one thing completely different.”
11. Rodriguez
As properly as Citizen Bull received the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, stablemate and runner-up Rodriguez excites practically as a lot. He appeared to lose focus when intimidated between horses down the backstretch, however he’s a colt who ought to profit from continued racing. He took an enormous transfer ahead in breaking his maiden second out on the lead, then gained wanted seasoning within the Lewis. He returned to the work tab Feb. 11, a constructive signal of resiliency that chasing a champion in Citizen Bull didn’t knock him out.
12. Disco Time
Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes ought to make clear the standard of the slowly run Lecomte Stakes with 4 individuals from the race in motion, however Disco Time, who received the Lecomte with a troubled journey, shouldn’t be considered one of them. He has not labored because the race, resulting in him dipping to the ultimate place within the Derby Dozen rankings. Absent a breeze quickly, this 3-year-old will possible be displaced from this lineup, maybe by a prime performer within the Risen Star or a promising stablemate resembling Holy Bull runner-up Tappan Avenue or Sam F. Davis Stakes winner John Hancock. Coach Brad Cox instructed Marcus Hersh of Day by day Racing Type that the 3-for-3 colt was “nice” and coaching after a “little setback.” The colt is pointed towards one of many main last preps in late March or early April.
