The Grade 3, $265,000 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park is the primary of two prep races resulting in the Curlin Florida Derby in April and affords what may very well be vital factors to the highest 5 finishers on the Street to the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve.
Not like final yr’s Holy Bull, when FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA winner Fierceness made his 3-year-old debut, none of those entrants has wins in stakes races round two activates grime thus far. Nonetheless, He’s Not Joking received the Grade 3 bet365 Gray Stakes at this 1 1/16-mile distance on an all-weather floor final November, whereas Weapons Loaded received the one-turn Mucho Macho Man Stakes on the Gulfstream predominant observe final month. Ferocious completed second within the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at this distance on grime earlier than a fifth-place effort within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and seems to suit with this group as properly. Three others — Burnham Sq., Burning Glory, Kinetic Management — enter the race off maiden wins at a mile or longer and Tappan Road received a seven-furlong maiden race on this predominant observe Dec. 28. All 4 have the potential to enhance markedly making their first begins as 3-year-olds.
Evaluation and prime win contenders:
I’ll begin with Burning Glory, owing to a really sturdy pedigree in addition to Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott’s distinctive capacity to find out when a younger horse in his care can efficiently make the leap at school from maiden races to stakes races as a 3-year-old. Many racing followers are already conscious of Mott’s prowess with most of these horses, but when not, some prime examples are Hofburg (second within the 2018 Florida Derby), Modernist (winner of the 2020 Risen Star Stakes), and Candyman Rocket (winner of the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes), all following maiden victories. General, per a Race Lens question, Mott has a really sturdy report of eight wins in 37 races in the course of the previous 5 years with 3-year-olds in grime route stakes following a maiden win. On the pedigree aspect, Burning Glory was produced by stakes-placed Hail (by Tapit), who’s a half-sister to champion Shut Hatches ($2.7 million) and Lockdown ($445,900), each of whom had strong 3-year-old campaigns. As to Burning Glory himself, he improved to a career-best 93 Equibase Velocity Determine in profitable in his third profession begin when final seen in December, and Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard for the primary time in that race, returns to experience again. Contemplating Burning Glory improved his velocity determine by 10 factors from his earlier begin and contemplating that 93 determine is the second finest last-race determine within the area behind the 95 earned by Ferocious when fifth within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, this colt may take a giant step ahead and into the early listing of prime contenders on the Street to the Kentucky Derby.
Tappan Road received at first asking on Dec. 28 at Gulfstream, however at seven furlongs. Simply the identical, there’s little doubt he can run as properly or higher off the expertise of a race and at this longer distance as he’s a son of Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare. That mare, Grade 2-placed Virginia Key, is a half-sister to Pyrenees ($786,316) and Grace Adler ($258,800) and her solely different foal to race is a a number of winner round two turns (on turf). The race Tappan Road received has turned out to be a “Key Race” from which solely three horses have run again, two profitable their subsequent begins. In that debut win, which earned a wonderful 91 determine, Tappan Road confirmed lots of maturity when enjoyable in third place for the primary half-mile earlier than rallying by the front-runner to win going away. As such, this colt may very well be properly on his solution to making his mark on the Derby path.
Ferocious received his debut in straightforward vogue by 7 ¾ lengths final summer time so it was no shock when he was despatched to publish because the heavy favourite within the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga final September. Though second to Chancer McPatrick, Ferocious wasn’t disgraced as he was ending quick and missed by a half-length on the finish, incomes a 91 Equibase Velocity Determine. He adopted with the identical determine when second within the Breeders’ Futurity final October, repeating that 91 determine effort. Pretty properly regarded by bettors within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, Ferocious had visitors bother twice in the course of the race however confirmed some glorious late curiosity, transferring up from tenth to fifth within the final eighth of a mile and incomes a profession finest 95 velocity determine. Now very possible extra mature as a 3-year-old, Ferocious has a shot to run even higher on this scenario.
The remainder of the sphere (with finest Equibase Velocity Determine): Burnham Sq. (92), Weapons Loaded (100), He’s Not Joking (95) and Kinetic Management (85)
Win Contenders:
Burning Glory
Tappan Road
Ferocious
