Wednesday, January 22, 2025
HomeHorse RacingBetting an Up-and-Comer to Beat the Favourite in Southwest Stakes

Betting an Up-and-Comer to Beat the Favourite in Southwest Stakes

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The Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park is a crucial cease on the Highway to the Kentucky Derby offered by Woodford Reserve. Final yr’s runaway winner, Mystik Dan, went on to assert victory within the 2024 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve.

The 2025 Southwest this Saturday boasts for the primary time a $1 million purse, up from $800,000 final yr. With a wealthy purse and the 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby qualification factors out there to the highest 5 finishers, the Southwest attracted a top-notch, 10-horse area.

Main the cost from an accomplishments perspective is #1 Gaming, a proficient colt from the barn of Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert, who has gained the Southwest half a dozen instances since 2010. Gaming loved a productive 2-year-old marketing campaign, profitable his first two begins sprinting (together with the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity) earlier than ending second within the 1 1/16-mile FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile offered by TAA, crushed by 1 1/2 lengths by stablemate Citizen Bull.

Gaming ended 2024 on a down word, fading to complete third by 6 1/2 lengths because the heavy favourite within the 1 1/16-mile Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Can Gaming bounce again in his 3-year-old debut within the Southwest? It’s actually potential, however Gaming is 2-for-2 in sprints and 0-for-2 racing 1 1/16 miles and the Southwest distance could be a bit longer than Gaming needs to run.

Bettors can attempt to beat Gaming with #7 Patch Adams, a son of six-time main North American sire Into Mischief who appears like a rising star for two-time Eclipse Award-winning coach Brad Cox. Patch Adams debuted in a maiden particular weight dash at six furlongs at Keeneland, the place he set the tempo earlier than tiring barely to complete third by 1 1/2 lengths. He then improved dramatically in his second begin, which got here in one other maiden race going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs.

If something, “improved dramatically” understates the ability of Patch Adams’s second begin. After urgent fast tempo fractions, Patch Adams took over and drew clear to win simply by 10 1/2 lengths. He reached the end line in a blazing 1:20.77, solely 0.33 off a 12-year-old monitor file set by two-time Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Dash winner Groupie Doll.

Patch Adams has been coaching properly ever since. He enters the Southwest off a trio of quick five-furlong exercises at Payson Park, finishing the latest of these in 1:00.20, a superb time on Payson’s gradual floor.

Drawing put up place seven affords Patch Adams loads of choices for figuring out a positive journey within the Southwest. If he will get a clear journey and matches or improves upon the efficiency from his maiden win, Patch Adams can take house first prize within the Southwest.

We advocate that bettors play Patch Adams on prime of unique wagers just like the exacta (choose the highest two finishers so as) and trifecta (choose the highest three finishers so as).

Gaming is a logical contender to complete both second or third. The opposite horse we’ll embrace on our tickets is #6 Sandman, the rallying third-place finisher from the Grade 3 Avenue Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs final fall. Bought for $1.2 million as a 2-year-old in coaching, Sandman ended his juvenile season with a fast-finishing win in a $125,000 allowance-optional claiming race going one mile at Oaklawn in his finest efficiency so far. In response to the Equibase GPS outcome chart, Sandman ran his remaining eighth of a mile in a quick :11.98 to win by 1 3/4 lengths.

Sandman is progressing in the proper path and has a robust likelihood to complete within the Southwest prime three. He could even edge Gaming for runner-up honors, so we’ll wager accordingly.

Wagering Technique on a $10 Price range

$6 exacta: 7 with 1

What to say on the betting window: Oaklawn Park, tenth race, $6 exacta: 7 with 1

$4 exacta: 7 with 6

What to say on the betting window: Oaklawn Park, tenth race, $4 exacta: 7 with 6

Wagering Technique on a $30 Price range

$13 exacta: 7 with 1

What to say on the betting window: Oaklawn Park, tenth race, $13 exacta: 7 with 1

$9 exacta: 7 with 6

What to say on the betting window: Oaklawn Park, tenth race, $9 exacta: 7 with 6

$5 trifecta: 7 with 1 with 6

What to say on the betting window: Oaklawn Park, tenth race, $5 trifecta: 7 with 1 with 6

$3 trifecta: 7 with 6 with 1

What to say on the betting window: Oaklawn Park, tenth race, $3 trifecta: 7 with 6 with 1

Good luck, and benefit from the race!




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