A full subject of 14 was entered within the Grade 3, $250,000 Lecomte Stakes Jan. 18 at Honest Grounds. It’s the steppingstone to the Risen Star Stakes in February, the Louisiana Derby in March and hopefully the Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve on the primary Saturday in Could.
Constructed received the Gun Runner Stakes at this monitor and distance 4 weeks in the past, with Magnitude second, so these two will be the ones bettors look to first when deciding favoritism on this race. Powerful Catch received the Sugar Bowl Stakes at six furlongs on the identical day because the Gun Runner and stretches out to 2 turns for the primary time. Previous to ending fifth within the Remington Park Springboard Mile final month, Jolly Samurai received the seven-furlong Intelligent Trevor Stakes. Golden Afternoon completed second within the Grade 2 Fort & Key Bourbon Stakes final fall at this distance, however on turf, then received on turf, and races on grime for the primary time. Innovator, who completed second within the Introduction Stakes in early December, led from begin to end in a dash three weeks in the past and stretches out to 2 turns for the primary time, making it very probably he might be in entrance from the beginning. Admiral Dennis was the 4-5 favourite within the Gun Runner however stumbled initially and was by no means a menace thereafter. Disco Time has received each begins up to now and might be a contender. Dapper Moon is in profitable kind off a dash victory at Honest Grounds and previous to that completed fourth within the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes. Latest maiden winners stepping up in school embrace Most Promise, Mobetterthangood, and Seattle Street. Optical received a one-turn mile race in allowance firm when final seen. Calling Card received at that distance one earlier than final however regressed to complete third in first begin versus winners in December.
Prime contenders:
Innovator is the horse the remainder of the sector will most definitely need to catch to win this yr’s Lecomte Stakes. The son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Genuine has received simply one in every of seven races up to now however has completed second in 4 others. Final summer season when he was nonetheless a maiden and coming off a pair of runner-up efforts, Innovator ran within the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes however was bumped arduous on the break and didn’t get a very good early place, dropping any likelihood he had. Moved again to the maiden ranks in late November, Innovator ran too good to lose, developing a head brief on the end line and incomes a powerful 97 Equibase Velocity Determine. The winner of that race was the extremely regarded Barnes, who received the San Vicente Stakes on Jan. 4 in solely the second begin of his profession. Nonetheless very extremely regarded by his Corridor of Fame coach, D. Wayne Lukas, who received the 2013 Lecomte with Oxbow, Innovator ran within the Introduction Stakes on Dec. 6, main from the beginning and ending second with a 95 determine. Returning three weeks in a while Dec. 29 and returned to the maiden ranks, Innovator sailed alongside on a straightforward early lead and held on by a neck to win, incomes a career-best 101 determine, which is the best determine earned by any horse on this subject. Drawing the ground-saving rail for the Lecomte, Innovator most likely might be despatched to the entrance as regular and will set up a straightforward early lead. Based mostly on his pedigree, Innovator should not have any downside working as nicely at this distance as he did within the shorter race final outing, as a result of not solely is he a son of a Derby winner, however his dam produced Carmel Street, who received at a mile then was second at this distance within the 2022 Los Alamitos Futurity. Given the entire above, Innovator is the one to catch — and to beat — on this yr’s Lecomte.
Disco Time is unbeaten and untested in two races up to now, the newest of which earned a 96 Equibase Velocity Determine. That effort, in a one-turn mile race at Churchill Downs on the finish of November, could be very prone to be improved upon as he makes his third profession begin. Disco Time has drawn post-position 11 for the Lecomte, which is perhaps disadvantageous, however he seems to have sufficient tactical pace to get a good place earlier than the primary flip with out dropping an excessive amount of floor. Per a Race Lens question, coach Brad Cox has an especially good file in grime route stakes races for 3-year-old males the previous 5 years, profitable 49 of 146 (34%). With the primary jockey for the barn, Florent Geroux, within the saddle, Disco Time seems to be a powerful contender on this subject.
Dapper Moon shipped in from Kentucky to prep for this race final month. In his first begin over the monitor on Dec. 19, Dapper Moon relaxed in third within the early phases of a six-furlong dash then moved to guide simply, incomes a career-best 98 pace determine within the course of. Previous to that, he completed fourth in three straight high races for 2-year-olds, together with the Avenue Sense Stakes at this distance. In that race, Dapper Moon started fifth then moved up aggressively to guide by a half-length with an eighth of a mile to go, earlier than tiring. Now that he’s in profitable kind, and with a 98 final race determine very near the 101 high contender Innovator earned in his most up-to-date begin, Dapper Moon have to be revered when contemplating our wagers on this race.
Constructed took benefit of the actual fact betting favourite Admiral Dennis stumbled initially within the Gun Runner Stakes at Honest Grounds 4 weeks in the past, establishing a straightforward lead in a subject of 5 and lengthening his margin all through the race. The 95 Equibase Velocity Determine was a career-best and a pleasant enchancment off the 88 determine earned two months earlier, in order that race might be improved upon once more, which makes the colt a contender. However, Constructed seems unlikely to be wherever close to the early lead on this race on fractions of :24.64, :49.23 and 1:13.77 as he set within the Gun Runner. Constructed drew the rail within the Gun Runner and will get post-position 13 for the Lecomte, which might be disadvantageous as he’ll very probably attempt for a very good early place earlier than the primary time however will discover himself going huge. Nonetheless, if he is ready to set up a mid-pack place with out dropping an excessive amount of floor, Constructed might be aggressive as soon as once more.
The remainder of the sector (with finest Equibase Velocity Determine): Admiral Dennis (97), Calling Card (96), Golden Afternoon (94), Jolly Samurai (83), Magnitude (89), Most Promise (77), Mobetterthangood (79), Optical (92), Seattle Street (82), and Powerful Catch (96).
Win contenders, in desire/likelihood order:
Innovator
Disco Time
Dapper Moon
Constructed
