Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, the place we’ll have a look every week at a latest winner on the Triple Crown path, normally from the Street to the Kentucky Derby schedule that provides qualifying factors to the primary race within the collection. The 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve will likely be held Might 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs.
This week, we’ll take a better have a look at Cyclone State, the three ½-length winner of the $150,000 Jerome Stakes Jan. 4 at Aqueduct. The McKinzie colt earned his first 10 factors towards qualifying for the 2025 Kentucky Derby and at the moment ranks 12th on the Street to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Racing Résumé: After an inauspicious begin to his profession – two unplaced finishes in sprints and one other on the grass – Cyclone State has put collectively 4 straight high quality begins at one mile on filth. The primary of the sequence was a race slated for the turf that was switched to a essential observe rated pretty much as good on account of rain, and Cyclone State set the tempo and light to second within the maiden particular weight race Sept. 28, 2024, at Aqueduct.
Since then, the McKinzie colt has gained three straight one-mile races at Aqueduct.
Cyclone State led from begin to end in a 2 ½-length maiden win Nov. 3 and in a 2 ¾-length rating in a Dec. 6 non-obligatory claiming race. The Jerome Stakes was his stakes debut and thus a major class take a look at. He once more dueled for the lead and opened a 1 ½-length benefit by means of a half-mile in :47.25. Cyclone State spurted clear to an eight-length lead in early stretch and coasted dwelling a 3 ½-length winner because the third betting selection within the seven-horse discipline.
“He simply form of continued the trajectory he’s been on over the past a number of begins. I feel there is no such thing as a doubt that he has some skill and pace,” coach Chad Summers stated after the Jerome. “How far he’ll go, and every little thing else like that, we’re going to discover out.”
Neither the profitable time of 1:40.82 nor Cyclone State’s ultimate quarter-mile in :27.62 had been something to put in writing dwelling about, and albeit the ultimate eighth of a mile in :14.41 is downright sluggish for a one-mile filth race. Cyclone State did end higher in his earlier two wins, particularly within the maiden win, so maybe he misplaced focus after constructing a large benefit within the Jerome.
For sure, 3-year-olds don’t win the Kentucky Derby ending that slowly within the Churchill Downs stretch.
Velocity Figures: Regardless of how sluggish the closing fractions had been within the Jerome, Cyclone State earned a brand new career-top 96 Equibase Velocity Determine and 84 Beyer Velocity Determine for the win. The previous was an eight-point enchancment whereas the latter marked a two-point bounce. The pace figures are trending positively, however he might want to enhance to win because the competitors will get stronger.
Working Model: Given all of his greatest races have come when setting the tempo, Cyclone State appears like a pacesetter/pace-presser. Whereas he had firm on the within early within the Jerome, he didn’t get rank, tug and pull, or something that will point out he’s a need-the-lead kind. I anticipate he may settle in and press pretty comfortably if vital however Cyclone State does seem to favor to be on or very near the lead in his races. We are going to see how that impacts him when confronted with quicker opponents intent on setting a considerably swifter tempo.
Connections: Cyclone State was a $70,000 buy out of the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale. He’s owned by the partnership of Al Gold’s Gold Sq., George Messina, and Michael Lee. Gold is greatest identified for racing Cyberknife, the a number of Grade 1 winner Gold named after a life-saving software that helped him overcome prostate most cancers. Messina and Lee have been concerned in a number of partnerships collectively.
Coach Chad Summers conditioned two-time Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Thoughts Your Biscuits, a a number of graded stakes winner within the U.S. Summers additionally educated Grade 2 winner Clapton whereas amassing eight stakes wins since taking out his license in 2017.
Jockey Luis Rivera Jr. is certainly one of three riders for Cyclone State in his seven begins to this point and has been aboard for all three of his victories. Rivera, who took out his jockey’s license in 2023, earned his second profession stakes win within the Jerome.
Pedigree Notes: Cyclone State is from the primary crop of McKinzie, a Grade 1 winner at ages 2, 3, and 4 and a graded stakes winner in every of his 4 seasons of racing. He has sired in his first crop a number of Grade 1 winner Chancer McPatrick, Grade 1 winner Scottish Lassie, and a number of Grade 1-placed winners Quickick and McKinzie Road. He’s off to a powerful begin to his second profession as a stallion.
Grade 3-placed a number of stakes winner Chanel’s Legacy, by Dominus, is the dam (mom) of Cyclone State. Her stakes wins got here at distances starting from six furlongs to a mile.
It’s not the flashiest pedigree, however there may be class within the first era and sufficient stamina right here to warrant cheap expectations that Cyclone State may deal with 1 ¼ miles.
Derby Potential: Summers stated Cyclone State will likely be thought of for the one-mile, $1.5 million Saudi Derby on Feb. 22 at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in addition to the one-mile, $300,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 1, a 50-point qualifying race for the Kentucky Derby.
Cyclone State seems to be on an upward trajectory however at this level I’m not offered on him as a viable Kentucky Derby contender for a number of causes. He must make vital positive factors by way of pace figures, I’m unsure he beat a lot by way of high quality within the Jerome, and I didn’t like how slowly he completed in that race. My opinion may completely change with a breakout efficiency in his subsequent race, however for now I’m snug asking Cyclone State to show me fallacious as he progresses on the 2025 Kentucky Derby path.
