Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Ideas
12.45 Windsor – Vincenzo
13:10 Navan – Healdsburg
14:07 Carlisle – Wakool
15:40 Windsor – Onewaywest
*All costs are bang updated with our snazzy widgets, whereas odds in copy are correct at time of publishing however topic to alter.
There might solely be 5 runners on this two-mile handicap chase, however the make-up of this race makes it a massively attention-grabbing betting occasion. What we mainly have listed here are 4 hold-up/midfield horses, however with simply the one ahead working entry; specifically my choice, VINCENZO.
From a handicapping perspective, there isn’t a actual standout, though I used to be impressed by the best way that Helnwein went by means of his belated seasonal comeback race at Warwick behind Telepathique. Leaping properly all through, the highest weight appeared all set to attain between the third and second final once I suppose that he most likely blew up, and subsequently, Tom Cannon wasn’t laborious on him.
Alan King’s cost seems to be like the most important hazard to the choice as he seems to be positive to get a very good tow by means of the race. Making his chasing debut, the choice has primarily run over two and a half miles in his seven runs over timber, however on a number of events, I’ve thought that he barely will get residence over that prolonged journey. This drop to the minimal distance round a observe which ought to favour his ahead working type makes him the plain play right here in what seems to be a tightly knit novices handicap chase.
I’ve to confess I’ve but to strike in one among these lower-grade huge field-staying handicap hurdles in Eire this season, however this seems to be like an acceptable medium to play in, with extra rain anticipated at this stiff observe.
The Story So Far is much less uncovered than most on this 18-runner discipline and, on a few events final yr, signalled that this might be his set-up, particularly when he took a late fall at Limerick, having beforehand completed behind the very good Mercurey at Punchestown. So a mark of 111 much less Alex Harvey’s 5lbs declare makes him of curiosity at a value.
Boston Seaside is even much less uncovered, having visited the race course on simply three events, and Gordon Elliott does properly together with his younger horses taking up average seasoned campaigners at this stage, whereas the handicapper has given Rodney Bay an actual probability off a mark of 104 with Sean Flanagan a constructive reserving. Royal Cave would most likely have received had he not fallen on the final at Fairyhouse, however I’m unsure this deeper floor will likely be his cup of tea.
Ultimately, although, I’ve come down on the aspect of HEALDSBURG who was very inexperienced when he returned to the observe in September.
Since then, the son of Vendangeur has made steps ahead, and he must be prepared for his peak efficiency on his handicap debut off a score of simply 100. His final run in a maiden hurdle at Tipperary was means higher than his ending place of sixth suggests, and his small yard has discovered him a really attention-grabbing opening right here, as much as this journey for the primary time.
A number of of those entries must win to get a hike within the weights to even ponder making the Pertemps Last in March at Cheltenham even when they ‘qualify’ by making the primary 4.
Prime weight Gwennie My Boy might be value one other probability after finishing a hat-trick of wins earlier in 2024 off marks of 113, 117, and 126. He then ran within the extremely aggressive Betfair Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock Park in what have been determined circumstances however may by no means get the possibility to reinforce that document when he took a gentle fall on the fourth flight. Tried and examined in deep floor and set to race off the identical mark right here (137) that is fairly clearly a better job for him.
Shallow River was additionally progressive final yr, however he has been absent for some 46 days since going out like a lightweight on his return at Newton Abbot. Regardless of being crushed some 27 lengths, the handicapper has been saved on the identical mark, so the vote goes to the Alexander cost, WAKOOL, who has undergone a wind operation because the again finish of final season when he was seemingly struggling to get residence on his remaining three begins crushed a complete of 162 lengths.
The eight-year-old made his comeback at Ayr initially of November, solely weakening when approaching the second final. This will likely be his second run since his operation and he’s set to run off a mark under 130 for the primary time in two and a half years. If that run has introduced him on then he must be able to step up right here.
This was most likely some of the aggressive races of the day, and there are a number of each-way gamers value a re-assessment.
Previous Time Chaser is a lovely-looking scopey-looking horse who, in time, will make a beautiful chaser, as his title befits. This journey over this sharp observe although might not play to his strengths, and except there may be important market help I’m glad to let him slip till he races over a extra galloping observe and even look ahead to him to go chasing.
Fourtowns has been knocking on the door of late and ran one other good race when crushed by three and a half lengths by Courtroom Cian at Uttoxeter. The issue is that his consistency stops the assessor in dropping him within the weights. His final three begins have been off 105.
Prime weight Douglas DC hails from the identical college of consistency however is revered off high weight. Nonetheless, it’s the Ben Pauling cost, ONEWAYWEST, that comes right here with the power to depart behind his present mark of simply 109.
A half brother to graded winner Birchdale, he began off his hurdling profession properly final yr with positioned efforts at Huntingdon and Ffos Las earlier than he appeared set for victory at Wetherby slightly below a yr in the past when he was injured.
Working properly at residence there’s a probability that he’ll presumably want the run, however he must be leaving this grade behind in the end and is an enormous participant right here if the market speaks in his favour.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Racing Ideas
12.45 Windsor – Vincenzo
13:10 Navan – Healdsburg
14:07 Carlisle – Wakool
15:40 Windsor – Onewaywest
*All costs are bang updated with our snazzy widgets, whereas odds in copy are correct at time of publishing however topic to alter.
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