Joel Dahmen received his PGA Tour card in dramatic trend. Here is the catch

Joel Dahmen’s chase for a PGA Tour card was arguably essentially the most resonant story of the autumn season. With 125 playing cards out there, the Tour fan favourite entered the ultimate week of the season at No. 124, together with his future in severe jeopardy. A double-bogey 7 late in Saturday’s spherical appeared to doom his possibilities — however then he bounced again with a Sunday 64 that catapulted him again to No. 124, precisely the place he’d began the week and simply contained in the quantity.

However in keeping with the oldsters at DataGolf, you may make the case that Dahmen’s 2025 PGA Tour standing might really make it harder to return for him to return in 2026. Had he missed out on the highest 125 Dahmen might have opted to play a Korn Ferry Tour schedule, and per their calculations it’s really simpler to earn PGA Tour standing via the KFT than to maintain it whereas on Tour.

To be clear, no person is suggesting Dahmen ought to have punted on ending high 125. Being on the PGA Tour is the complete level, in spite of everything. The cash, the majors, the factors, the perks, the dream, the upside. Dahmen’s job is to maximise all of that, to not merely retain his card for 2026. It’s additionally powerful to challenge what Dahmen’s 2025 would appear like had he completed No. 126, as an example, and performed a combination of KFT and PGA Tour occasions. However it’s nonetheless an attention-grabbing lens via which to discover the adjustments to the PGA Tour’s construction, which is able to see playing cards lowered from 125 to 100 on the finish of subsequent season and scale back KFT graduates from 30 to twenty.

What does the mathematics say? Per DataGolf’s glorious e-newsletter, the A hundredth-best participant on Tour has averaged +0.16 “True strokes gained” per spherical during the last 20 years, although within the final two years, within the LIV-poaching period, that quantity has dropped to +0.05. However examine that with the No. 20 place on the KFT, which has averaged -0.36 True SG/spherical. By that measure, the identical high quality of golf might earn you a PGA Tour card from the KFT and lose you your job on the PGA Tour. (This was true with the earlier card format, too.) It additionally is smart that KFT graduates usually have a troublesome time preserving their playing cards; the identical stage that acquired them to the Tour isn’t at all times adequate to maintain them there.

Dahmen didn’t know these numbers, naturally. However he, like each Tour professional, is conscious that preserving his job is simply getting harder.

“I’ve to enhance a ton,” he mentioned after his ultimate spherical, then checked himself. “Not a ton, however I’ve to get higher to be within the high 100.

“I’ve mentioned this for a very long time: my ball-striking is Prime 30 on this planet. I’ve simply acquired to get a little bit higher with the opposite issues and be extra per my method to Thursday and Friday rounds to play how I can play.”

That checks out: In arguably golf’s most vital statistic, method play, Dahmen was No. 16 on Tour this season. He was glorious off the tee, too, ending fortieth in strokes gained in that division. He really led the Tour in common proximity to the outlet, averaging six inches nearer than World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. However he struggled on Thursdays (145th in scoring common) in comparison with Fridays (14th, greater than a stroke and a half higher). He completed the season 181st in placing, too. In different phrases, there are many vibrant spots however room for enchancment, too.

“I confirmed how I can play below stress right now, like, bringing it,” Dahmen concluded. “And my Friday spherical as nicely, that was I believe one of many higher rounds on Friday at Seaside [when he rallied to make the cut]. Two of the most important stress moments of my profession I confirmed up. And I can take that going ahead and would possibly as nicely begin at Sony.”

It’s secure to say Dahmen will take his possibilities on the massive Tour as a substitute.

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