The Grade 2, $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes incorporates a area of 10 vying for necessary “Street to the Derby” qualifying factors in addition to wonderful prize cash.
When it comes to identify recognition amongst this proficient area of 2-year-olds, Jonathan’s Manner is first as he received the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs in September earlier than a seventh-place end within the Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile offered by TAA on Nov. 1. One other earlier stakes winner is He’s Not Joking, who received the Grade 3 bet365 Gray Stakes at Woodbine in Canada 4 weeks in the past. A variety of the opposite horses have stakes expertise, that group led by Grade 2 Saratoga Particular Stakes runner-up First Resort, who completed fourth within the Grade 1 bet365 Summer season Stakes in his most up-to-date race. Equally, Grade 3 Avenue Sense Stakes runner-up Tiztastic goals to enhance a bit, as does Dapper Moon, who led with an eight of a mile left within the Avenue Sense earlier than fading to fourth. Filoso closed effectively from tenth of 11 to get third within the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity final month and is one other maybe needing slight enchancment to win at this degree. Clock Tower has led from the beginning in all 4 profession begins, most not too long ago hanging on for third within the Grade 2 Fortress & Key Bourbon Stakes. Render Judgment and Sonic Skidaddle each step up at school to the stakes degree for the primary day without work current maiden wins. Redacted completed second in a maiden race in his debut a little bit greater than two weeks in the past and is trying to earn his first profession win on this 12 months’s Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes.
Prime contenders:
Three horses within the area have received stakes races, these being He’s Not Joking, Jonathan’s Manner and Tiztastic. Of the trio, He’s Not Joking is the one one of many three coming into the race following a win in his most up-to-date race. That win got here within the Gray Stakes at Woodbine in Canada by which He’s Not Joking earned a 95 Equibase Pace Determine, which was not solely the very best of his profession but additionally got here in his first race round two turns. Though the Gray Stakes was run on all-weather Tapeta Footings floor at Woodbine, I’ve little doubt the colt can run as effectively on dust, as he’s a son of Sensible Joke, who has produced two colts that ran effectively in graded stakes on dust on the Street to the Kentucky Derby: 2023 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Sensible Transfer and 2024 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby winner Home Product. Within the Gray Stakes, He’s Not Joking responded readily when requested by his jockey after a half-mile had been run, transferring up rapidly from sixth to 3rd earlier than taking the lead and drawing off to win by 4 lengths. Getting the ground-saving rail publish place, He’s Not Joking has the profit off a robust early tempo to shut into as a result of Clock Tower has led by way of the opening six furlongs in all three of his route races and likewise as a result of First Resort additionally has a “want the lead” fashion. Moreover, Redacted stretches out from seven furlongs from the surface publish within the area of 10 and so will likely be compelled to make use of some early velocity to get good place earlier than the primary flip. Final, however not least, coach Josie Carroll doesn’t ship out of Woodbine fairly often to run her horses on dust, however a Race Lens question reveals her starters have received 4 of 16 races on dust over the previous few years. As such, He’s Not Joking could also be powerful to beat with enchancment that ought to happen in his second consecutive race round two turns.
Jonathan’s Manner was very spectacular successful the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs in September, and he did so with a field-high 100 velocity determine. That race was run at a mile round one flip, so he was making an attempt two turns for the primary time within the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at the beginning of this month. In that race, Jonathan’s Manner began fifth and by no means made any headway, ending up seventh whereas incomes a 94 Equibase Pace Determine. Since then, he has put in a spectacular five-furlong exercise at Churchill, in :58.80, the very best of 76 timed exercises on the day on the distance. This definitely tells us he’s match, however there’s nonetheless no approach to say for certain he’ll run as effectively at this two-turn journey as he did round one flip. If Jonathan’s Manner repeats his final effort and He’s Not Joking repeats his most up-to-date effort, then He’s Not Joking very doubtless wins. However, if his Iroquois effort is repeated, Jonathan’s Manner may win, however provided that He’s Not Joking doesn’t enhance off the expertise of his first race on the distance.
Then there are a pair of attention-grabbing runners, each with much less likelihood to win than both He’s Not Joking or Jonathan’s Manner.
The primary of the pair is Sonic Skidaddle, who didn’t run a lot in his debut at Churchill Downs in a dash two months in the past when ending seventh. He then was a completely completely different horse in his second profession begin on Nov. 1. In that race at seven furlongs, Sonic Skidaddle rallied from tenth after a half-mile and was six paths large on the far flip however nonetheless swooped by the sector to win by nearly 4 ¾ lengths, incomes an 85 velocity determine. Stretching out to 2 turns shouldn’t pose an issue as a Race Lens question reveals each foals out of his dam are dirt-route winners. Coach Brendan Walsh is great at realizing when his last-out maiden winners are prepared for the large leagues, having received the Breeders’ Futurity in October with East Avenue at this distance following a win in a dust dash. Notably, jockey Luan Machado rode East Avenue for the maiden win earlier than Tyler Gaffalione obtained on for the stakes win. The sample is analogous for Sonic Skidaddle, who had Machado aboard for the maiden win and now will get Gaffalione.
The opposite attention-grabbing horse is Tiztastic, who received the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes on grass in September with a 90 velocity determine earlier than incomes an 88 determine when second to five-length winner Sovereignty within the Avenue Sense Stakes at this distance on Oct. 27. He’s definitely obtained expertise and, with simply slight enchancment off his final two efforts, might have a say within the consequence.
The remainder of the Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes area (with finest Equibase Pace Determine in related race): Clock Tower (93), Dapper Moon (87), Filoso (88), First Resort (98)¸ Redacted (78) and Render Judgment (86).
Win Contenders:
He’s Not Joking
Jonathan’s Manner
