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It’s time to fret about C.J. Stroud (& Kliff Kingsbury)

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It’s time to fret about C.J. Stroud (& Kliff Kingsbury)


Week 12 was a launching pad for ethical victories. Each Caleb Williams and Bryce Younger, the final two first total picks within the NFL Draft, led fourth quarter comebacks en path to last-second losses.

It was additionally a breeding floor for momentum crushing defeat. The Houston Texans discovered a option to lose to the lowly Tennessee Titans. The New England Patriots vacated any lingering goodwill in a blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins. The San Francisco 49ers by accident proved how invaluable Brock Purdy is to move coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

What else did we study in Week 12? Let’s discuss it.

[Please bear with me for any Twitter embed issues. Our editing software has become a whole problem on that front the past couple weeks. Rest assured, if there’s a play alluded to in the text it’s worth clicking through to see if it didn’t make it into the article itself.]

Daniel Bartel-Imagn Photographs

1. Perhaps all Caleb Williams wanted was a brand new offensive coordinator

Caleb Williams has gone via anticipated rising pains as a rookie quarterback. I’m undecided anybody thought his debut season could be this a lot of a curler coaster two-thirds of the way in which via 2024.

Williams bought off to a sluggish begin to start his profession, throwing a pair of touchdowns towards 4 interceptions within the Chicago Bears’ 1-2 begin. Then, indicators of life. Williams lower his sack fee, discovered open targets downfield and threw seven touchdowns in a three-game successful streak that made the Bears a sudden playoff risk.

We all know what occurred subsequent. The primary total decide in final spring’s draft struggled towards the Washington Commanders and misplaced to the second total decide on a Hail Mary. That malaise lasted three video games, settled Williams in as a bottom-10 quarterback and made 2024 appear to be each different disappointing season the Bears have had the final 4 many years.

Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired. This led to a Week 11 directive for Williams to eliminate the ball rapidly and run extra. His Week 12 instruction, presumably, was to face as much as the Minnesota Vikings’ perpetual blitz machine. Properly, excellent news:

Williams discovered a number of methods to interrupt the Vikings’ top-ranked protection. He escaped strain and lofted deep throws to the sideline. He stood within the pocket and uncorked lasers downfield.

He utilized that good placement as chaos unrolled round him. This third down conversion would have been his third-straight on a scoring drive Sunday. As an alternative, it resulted in zero factors as a result of Keenan Allen was out of bounds by a toenail and Cairo Santos solely is aware of methods to kick line drives, however STILL.

That is the crux Williams’s rookie season. If we monitor his passer ranking on a week-by-week foundation, you get this janky curler coaster of occasional greatness and troubling slumps:

If superior stats are extra your fashion, right here’s that chart by way of anticipated factors added (EPA) per sport:

That’s 4 superior video games, 5 very unhealthy ones and a single impartial efficiency. At his greatest, Williams is a flat-out headache (complimentary). He can throw frozen ropes via tight protection up the seam. He can float good rainbows to streaking targets down the sideline. He can escape strain in clutch conditions to offer his workforce new life.

Issues persist, principally in the way in which you’d count on from a younger passer. There are overthrows on the run and the occasional glad toes that breed inaccuracy. There are additionally moments the place the adjustment from school to professionals is obvious and he merely underestimates the athleticism of an edge rusher or cornerback.

On Sunday, he was nice.

The Bears aren’t doing something revolutionary to make Williams a viable franchise quarterback. They’re constructing an offense across the limitations in entrance of him. The place Waldron’s sport plan emphasised composure within the pocket and completely an excessive amount of time dancing and ready for routes to develop, interim OC Thomas Brown has simplified the sport plan.

In got here a litany of fast routes and an edict to take off working as soon as issues bought uncomfortable. Williams’s common goal distance in Weeks 1-10 was eight yards downfield. It was 6.6 in Week 11 and seven.2 in Week 12 as his time to throw plummeted in step. His 2.42 seconds between snap and throw final week was a profession low. On Sunday it was proper again on the similar quantity once more.

This doesn’t imply he’s merely a pop-a-shot savant. When given the chance to learn a protection, he’s understands precisely the place to search out quarter and create game-changing good points.

Eradicating Waldron from the equation and making a simple-but-devastating playbook has been a boon for Chicago. The Bears all the time had the expertise to generate performs downfield however lacked the blocking to correctly set them up. Brown has discovered methods to create that house, whether or not it’s been unlocking his quarterback’s legs and turning potential blitzers into QB spies or just resorting to extra play-action handoffs to purchase time after Waldron’s offense couldn’t even crack the highest 25 when it got here to those fakes.

The Bears have made a concerted effort to deal with Williams each like a rookie quarterback and as a very particular playmaker. He’s been given extra passing performs with easy reads and quick-ditch choices. He’s additionally been given the liberty to lean into his instincts and take off the place applicable, harnessing the off-script wizardry that received him a Heisman Trophy.

That hasn’t led to wins for Chicago. Given head coach Matt Eberflus’s uninspired teaching and seemingly inevitable firing, which may be a very good factor. What’s necessary is that Williams seems to be not solely like a quarterback worthy of being the highest total draft decide however the sort of franchise-altering headache that would hang-out the NFC North for years to come back.

USA Right this moment Sports activities

2. The New York Giants don’t wish to be right here

Swapping out Daniel Jones for Tommy DeVito was by no means going to make the Giants higher. It was a futile try to put the Jones period in storage, locked away in an attic the place nobody may discover it and get again to the relative sunshine of a younger cellular quarterback who wasn’t superb however was sometimes enjoyable.

DeVito was a enjoyable story in final 12 months’s misplaced season. The novelty has already worn off on this one. Head coach Brian Daboll didn’t suppose extremely sufficient of the previous Rutgers and Illinois QB to stop him from signing skilled backup Drew Lock final offseason. In a single sport, Daboll proved that judgment proper and his personal resolution to start out DeVito over Lock in Week 12 improper.

DeVito’s mobility was alleged to be a profit behind a cheesecloth offensive line. As an alternative, strain restricted him to a gentle weight loss program of short-range targets that led to straightforward completions that had no influence on the ultimate consequence of the sport.

The second-year QB accomplished 21 of his 31 passes for an affordable 67.7 % completion fee. All however 4 of these completions got here inside seven yards of the road of scrimmage.

through habitatring.com

Sunday’s sport was each bit as a lot of a large number as you’d count on a 23-point defeat to a workforce on a four-game dropping streak might be. I’m undecided what the god of missed tackles and horrible angles seems to be like, however I do know he had a candle lit in his honor by the top of this run — a run the place BAKER MAYFIELD made a key block some 40 yards past the road of scrimmage.

The distinction in effort right here is stark. This, amazingly, could not have been New York’s most embarrassing second towards Mayfield Sunday afternoon.

Issues weren’t higher on the opposite aspect of the trenches. DeVito was sacked or hit 13 instances in 35 dropbacks. As an alternative of making him the sort of quick-hit gameplan that would mitigate this strain, the younger quarterback struggled within the pocket, consuming time earlier than dump off throws. That’s, assuming, he was in a position to eliminate it in any respect.

This all led to the obvious consequence conceivable. The Giants, having waved the white flag on each the Jones period and 2024 as a complete, performed uninspired soccer and bought their brakes crushed off because of this. Even Tyrone Tracy and Malik Nabers, two vibrant notes in a dirge of a season, managed to fumble in Week 12.

There’s no purpose to maintain watching New York. At greatest, it is going to be a meme manufacturing facility for imprecise DeVito Italian-isms. At worst it is going to be a painful slog via horrible soccer. Based mostly on what we noticed Sunday, count on extra of the latter.

Peter Casey-Imagn Photographs

3. Kliff Kingsbury’s magic is carrying off (once more)

Kingsbury, offensive coordinator of the Washington Commanders, is a cycle unto himself. He burns from “rising progressive younger(ish) teaching star” to “poorly chosen password” ranges of discovered with relative quickness. He burned via comparatively sizzling begins at Texas Tech and the Arizona Cardinals en path to firings.

He’s breaching the latter class with surprising quickness in 2024.

Kingsbury’s play-action heavy playbook utilized movement and distinctive formations to create house for Jayden Daniels alongside a reasonably easy goal record. This maximized the Commanders’ restricted core of confirmed playmakers whereas pushing Daniels to the forefront of rookie of the 12 months conversations and even into the MVP dialogue.

However, like earlier than, opponents have figured it out. This was comprehensible when it occurred in Weeks 10 and 11 towards the swarming defenses of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles. It’s one thing else completely towards the Dallas Cowboys’ Thirtieth-ranked protection.

That’s what occurred in Week 12.

Just like the Eagles earlier than them, the Cowboys slapped the clamps on Terry McLaurin and dared Washington’s targets to make them pay elsewhere. McLaurin had solely 4 catches for 16 yards earlier than breaking free for an 86-yard landing late within the fourth quarter to chop into Dallas’s 10-point lead. It was additionally certainly one of solely two deep completions in Daniels’ stat line in seven makes an attempt.

In Week 10, this was an anomaly; commonplace rookie struggles in an in any other case exceptional season. After Week 12, it’s a troubling pattern. Let’s take a look at the Washington offense over this span:

In three weeks, Daniels has gone from the league’s best quarterback to pre-injury, disaster mode Dak Prescott (-4.2 EPA/sport this fall). In that stretch, he’s tried 15 passes that traveled at the least 15 yards downfield, accomplished 5 and has twice as many interceptions (two) as touchdowns.

What’s the issue? Kingsbury’s offense has been extra environment friendly when laying a correct floor assault, however lead again Brian Robinson has been slowed by accidents and RB2 Austin Ekeler has been unable to show extra handoffs into sustainable success. His yards per carry have dropped from 6.2 the primary eight weeks of the season to three.3 the final 4 weeks.

On Sunday, the Commanders’ 44 % success fee on run performs was considerably increased than their 36 % on passing performs. That worth was nearly completely derived from Daniels’ scrambles and designed runs, which created greater than half the workforce’s speeding yards. Washington had nothing doing with handoffs and, as such, little room to function the play-action fakes endemic to the workforce’s early rise.

Now, Kingsbury is asking the younger quarterback who thrived early underneath strain to progress additional down his route tree with much less house to function. Daniels thrived towards the blitz early in his profession, however on Sunday he accomplished a single move for 4 yards when pressured.

A few of that is pure regression; regardless of how good Daniels is, it was all the time unlikely he’d maintain a greater passer ranking when blitzed or pressured in comparison with when he’s not. A few of this can be a acquainted story of opponents selecting up what Kingsbury is laying down. In his final three seasons with the Cardinals, for instance, he was 15-8 earlier than the calendar flipped to November and 7-20 afterward.

The Commanders are locked in that Kingsbury spiral. They’ve bought six weeks left — and, fortunately, a bye — to determine methods to straighten out these kinks.

Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Photographs

4. Daniel Jones, YOU are a Las Vegas Raider

Jones was launched by the Giants this week. He would reportedly like to affix a contender for the remainder of the 2024 season when he clears waivers. However whereas he’d be a helpful backup for a playoff workforce, he might be a right away improve for the Raiders.

This isn’t a praise to Jones. This can be a testomony to the sheer crapulence of Gardner Minshew II.

Minshew left Sunday’s sport with a shoulder damage, turning the reins to Desmond Ridder within the course of and leaving a large berth for a reside physique to come back in and take over QB1 duties. Jones would get the prospect to be a right away starter for a Las Vegas workforce with little to lose and large curiosity find a redemption challenge like Baker Mayfield’s revival in Tampa Bay.

https://twitter.com/Broncos/standing/1860839027353526426

On one hand, he’d be caught with the league’s worst speeding offense — anathema to the Saquon Barkley-led assault that made him a bonafide playoff sport winner in 2022. On the opposite, he’d have some stable run-after-catch threats able to making his quick targets extra dynamic on the sphere and far nicer on the stat sheet.

The Raiders 5.2 yards after catch is barely under common, but in addition considerably higher than New York’s bottom-five 4.4 YAC. Jones may spend just a few weeks throwing 20 passes per sport to Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers in an open audition away from the Giants. Or he may wrestle behind an offensive line that has allowed considerably extra strain in 2024 than the flawed unit he left behind.

Both means, alternative awaits within the desert. It’s laborious to think about the bar being a lot decrease than the place Minshew has set it this fall.

Nov 24, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks up on the field after the game against the Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium.Nov 24, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks up on the field after the game against the Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium.

Troy Taormina-Imagn Photographs

5. It’s formally time to fret about C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans’ offense

In 2023, the Jacksonville Jaguars had been the defending AFC South champions. Then they light down the stretch as their younger franchise quarterback struggled. The Texans took benefit and rallied to a division title and playoff win. The longer term was vibrant.

In 2024, nonetheless, it’s Houston’s flip to fumble a sizzling begin. The Texans have gone from 5-1 to 7-5. Whereas there’s no hungry up-and-coming workforce behind them — the 5-7 Indianapolis Colts are the closest competitor — there’s loads of purpose to fret. Not like Trevor Lawrence’s injury-aided 2023 dropoff, there’s no straightforward excuse to hand-wave away how unhealthy C.J. Stroud has been.

Stroud has regressed in practically each side of his sport. After throwing 5 interceptions in 2023 he already has 9 in 2024. After averaging 2.4 anticipated factors added (EPA) per sport as a rookie he’s at -1.6 this fall, together with a -7 EPA efficiency towards Tennessee and its Twentieth-ranked passing protection in Week 12. Dealing with lengthy odds for a comeback, he practically Dan Orlovsky’ed himself out the again of the top zone en path to a game-sealing security in a sport the place Houston was an eight-point favourite.

That illustrates at the least a part of the issue. Stroud’s blocking has been a problem. His strain fee has climbed from 35.5 % as a rookie to 41.1 this fall because of a mixture of extra blitzes and shoddy offensive line play. Stroud’s 2.94 seconds from snap to throw is without doubt one of the 10 longest instances to throw within the league.

Regardless of this, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik hasn’t appreciably modified a lot of his sport plan. Stroud is rolling via play fakes at roughly the identical fee as 2023 regardless of an objectively extra impactful run sport behind Joe Mixon. His receivers are working the identical routes because the 12 months prior with comparable results; his 3.5 common yards of separation per goal is useless on his 2023 mark.

As an alternative of prioritizing a quick-hit offense just like the Bears or Panthers have achieved for his or her younger quarterbacks, Slowik seems content material to attend and see if a wholesome Nico Collins/Tank Dell mixture can raise this offense. That hasn’t been the case and there are few indicators of issues altering in Houston. So Stroud is left to bop within the pocket, ready for routes to develop and, extremely, leaving himself weak to being sacked by a 366-pound man who runs a 5.3-second 40.

That is untenable. Stroud had six video games with a number of landing passes and nil interceptions as a rookie. He has two this season, none since Week 4. He’s crushed one workforce that at present has a successful report; a 23-20 victory over the Buffalo Payments that doubles because the final time he threw for greater than 300 yards in a sport. He’s been extra environment friendly as a scrambler this fall, however that’s extra of a “observe makes good” state of affairs than something as a result of, once more, his line is shoddy and Slowik’s playbook provides little by the use of quick-release salvation.

What’s going to repair this? Properly, Slowik may check out how the Bears have revitalized Williams, although Stroud isn’t the identical sort of take-off-and-run risk because the Bears younger QB. He may lean into Mixon’s revival and incorporate extra play motion into the sport plan. He may give Tank Dell extra snaps out of the slot, the place he’s a extra environment friendly receiver and the place he might be a boon on downs that want the ball fired rapidly from the pocket.

These are all floor degree fixes. Slowik should dive deep to keep up his status as a rising younger playcaller. If he can’t, Stroud could also be doomed to mediocrity and Slowik could also be left to linger on the assistant degree via the remainder of his teaching profession.

Bob Donnan-Imagn Photographs

6. The Carolina Panthers could have signed up for an additional season of the Bryce Younger experiment

For 4 quarters, Bryce Younger stood toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes and practically out-dueled the two-time NFL MVP. This was a completely ludicrous departure from the quarterback who’d been benched for Andy Dalton after a pair of uninspiring begins to start his second season as a professional.

It wasn’t all the time fairly. It was the product of completely too many toss-and-bail happy-footed throws amongst strain within the pocket. However Younger battled again from a number of two-possession deficits to tie Sunday’s sport with the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. Solely a Mahomes two-minute drill may tip the scales again within the Chiefs’ favor on the buzzer in a 30-27 win.

At his greatest, you may see how Younger can shine in an NFL offense. When requested to make quick-twitch throws, he made stable reads and zipped the ball into tight home windows.

That’s Younger, elevating journeyman wideout David Moore right into a WR1 towards a championship caliber offense. Moore had 5 whole receptions between 2021 and 2023. On Sunday towards a Steve Spagnuolo protection, he had six catches for 81 yards and the landing above. 34-year-old Adam Thielen returned to the lineup and averaged 19 yards per catch. All of this was made doable by Younger’s perception in his downfield passing.

On the similar time, it’s also possible to see the way it may collapse. Younger was solely sacked twice on 37 dropbacks, however was pressured repeatedly by a Kansas Metropolis protection that blitzed him a season excessive 40 % of the time, per NFL Professional. Whereas his placement downfield towards incoming defenders labored out, it’s not a stretch to suppose throws like these:

may float away from him and create turnover-worthy performs. Nonetheless, Younger accomplished simply 23 % of his deep throws as a rookie. After Sunday’s efficiency he’s doubled that fee in 2024 (seven of 15). Carolina isn’t trying to him for famous person performances, however for a proof of idea he can execute an NFL gameplan with out collapsing in upon himself like a dying star.

That’s what he gave us vs. the Chiefs, elevating Moore and Thielen, his prime two wideouts, alongside the way in which. Younger isn’t mounted but, however he’s proven indicators that he’s fixable. For the Panthers and head coach Dave Canales, that’s sufficient.

Sam Navarro-Imagn Photographs

7. Tua Tagovailoa is proving he can do that with out Tyreek Hill (however it was towards the Patriots, so it doesn’t all-the-way rely)

Via two quarters, Tyreek Hill had simply 37 receiving yards on 5 targets in Week 12. Sometimes, this has been a nasty omen for the Miami Dolphins. They’re 8-11 in video games the place he has fewer than 75 receiving yards. As an alternative, they led the New England Patriots 24-0 on the half.

In half-hour, Tua Tagovailoa had thrown for greater than 250 passing yards and three touchdowns. He’d accomplished 5 of six passes that traveled at the least 15 yards downfield. Solely a type of went to Hill.

The primary benefactor of Tagovailoa’s downfield success? Jaylen Waddle. Waddle had 146 receiving yards in his prior 5 video games mixed. He had 118 yards within the first half alone. De’Von Achane took a pair quick pink zone targets to the top zone. Jonnu Smith continued his rise by torturing his former workforce in Miami Gardens.

Hill’s quiet efficiency wasn’t something new. He’s been a contributor, however not a star, since Tagovailoa returned from the top damage that value him 4 begins earlier within the season. Over his final three video games, Hill has 15 catches (good!) for under 125 yards (much less good!).

He hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving efficiency since Week 1 — a 10-game stretch that’s his longest since 2020 (and even that was unfold throughout two seasons). He’s averaging 60 fewer receiving yards per sport than he did in 2023, when he completed second in offensive participant of the 12 months voting. Regardless of this, Tagovailoa is 4-2 in video games he’s began and completed and Miami is using a three-game successful streak that’s left the Dolphins on the periphery of the 2024 playoff race.

A part of this may be chalked as much as Mike McDaniel’s offense and cache of playmakers. Buying elite athletes like Waddle and Achane ensured this might by no means be a Cheetah-only present. Buttressing them with athletic veterans like Smith and Raheen Mostert solely additional fleshed out Tagovailoa’s arsenal.

However credit score is because of the man behind all of it. Tagovailoa has accomplished 10 deep balls in 19 makes an attempt throughout these six-plus video games. That’s as many as Patrick Mahomes has in 11 video games and 27 makes an attempt. Prior to now, it might have been straightforward to hand-wave this away as Hill’s mastery shining via. As an alternative, Tagovailoa is elevating everybody in his offense.

Miami isn’t mounted. It has but to beat a workforce with a report higher than .500 and, relying on how the Los Angeles Rams do on Sunday evening, could have constructed its resume solely towards groups with dropping data. However Tagovailoa’s 2024 is proof he’s not merely the benefactor of a future Corridor of Famer working deep routes all day.

He maximized his expertise in Week 12 vs. the Patriots. If he can get Hill to thrive amidst the downfield chaos of McDaniel’s playbook, he could make the Dolphins an absolute nightmare for somebody within the AFC aspect of the bracket this postseason.

Steven Bisig-Imagn Photographs

8. Devon Witherspoon is the Seahawks’ secret ace

It’s robust for a participant chosen with a prime 10 draft decide to be neglected. However that’s roughly the place Seattle Seahawks’ defensive again Devon Witherspoon has landed. The Seahawks’ capability to play like lower than the sum of their components helped him turn out to be a cog in a forgettable, sometimes irritating protection.

Witherspoon doesn’t have an interception this season. He’s solely bought six passes defensed, 5 of which got here over the past two weeks. He took a backseat Sunday to teammate Leonard Williams’s 2.5 sacks and 9 quarterback pressures.

However watch him create a landing out of skinny air in a play that received’t be mirrored in his stat line:

On fourth-and-1, Witherspoon is the distinction between Kyler Murray scrambling for a contemporary set of downs and launching the ball. When Coby Bryant settles underneath his last-ditch heave, Witherspoon is there to escort him to the top zone. His block retains James Conner from probably catching up for a touchdown-saving deal with.

This was an unlimited swing in a 7-3 sport. It’s a well-known effort from a participant who’s requested to deal with a number of duties from his place within the slot. Witherspoon’s uncooked numbers aren’t nice. He misses too many tackles (11 in 10 video games, per Professional Soccer Reference). He’s allowed two-thirds of his targets to be caught this season.

However when he identifies a play, he’s a excessive effort eraser who’ll chase down the ball or clear a path for the teammate behind him. Witherspoon won’t be a Professional Bowler this season, however he’s some of the necessary items in Mike MacDonald’s effort to hold on Pete Carroll’s legacy in Seattle.

Jason Miller/Getty Photographs

9. Fantasy workforce you completely didn’t wish to discipline in Week 12

  • QB: Kyler Murray, Cardinals (285 passing yards, one interception, 9 speeding yards, 5 sacks, 13.6 fantasy factors)
  • RB: Javonte Williams, Broncos (-2 speeding yards, two catches, six receiving yards, 2.4 fantasy factors)
  • RB: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (13 speeding yards, one two-point conversion, 3.3 fantasy factors)
  • WR: Deebo Samuel, 49ers (one catch, 21 yards, 3.1 fantasy factors)
  • WR: Justin Jefferson, Vikings (two catches, 27 yards, 4.7 fantasy factors)
  • WR: Christian Watson, Packers (one catch, 4 yards, one dropped walk-in landing, 1.4 fantasy factors)
  • TE: David Njoku, Browns (one catch, 9 yards, one two-point conversion 3.9 fantasy factors)
  • D/ST: San Francisco 49ers (38 factors allowed, two sacks, -6.0 fantasy factors)

Complete: 26.4 factors



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