The $100,000, Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes Saturday at Del Mar drew a compact discipline of six set to go 1 1/8 miles on the primary observe.
The sphere is led by Mixto, the upset winner of the Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Pacific Traditional Stakes over the observe in August earlier than an 11th-place end three weeks in the past within the Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional. Among the many relaxation, Salesman is the one different stakes winner, having captured the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes in November of final 12 months. His greatest effort in three races this 12 months was a third-place end within the Grade 3 Cougar II Stakes in July. Then there’s Skinner, who makes his second begin following 11 months off after ending second on this race final 12 months proper earlier than the layoff. Mirahmadi comes into the race off a 10-length maiden win in his ninth profession begin. Tarantino and Extremely Energy had been separated by inches when first and third, respectively, in a robust allowance race 4 weeks in the past, and each warrant consideration based mostly on these efforts.
Prime Contenders to win:
Extremely Energy is considered one of two entrants within the race skilled by Bob Baffert, who additionally saddles Mirahmadi. Baffert has gained this race three years in a row and seems prone to preserve his streak intact. Though Mirahmadi was extraordinarily spectacular when successful by 10 lengths on Oct. 12, that win was in opposition to a maiden discipline. Then again, Extremely Energy ran significantly better although third in an allowance race two weeks afterward Oct. 26, incomes a 112 Equibase Pace Determine which is tied for the best last-race determine earned by any horse on this discipline. Tarantino, who ended up a pair of heads in entrance of Extremely Energy on the end of the race, additionally earned a 112 determine. One of many causes Extremely Energy stands out as the one to beat on this discipline is his 112 determine was preceded by an even-better 113 determine on August 31. Previous to that, Extremely Energy had been away from the races for practically 10 months however even with out a prep race the son of Curlin dominated to win by seven lengths. Within the race on Oct. 26, Tarantino battled head-and-head for the lead for the primary six furlongs, whereas Extremely Energy relaxed in fourth till given his cue by jockey Juan Hernandez, who rides once more on this race. On this race it’s doubtless Mirahmadi, Tarantino and Mixto will vie for the early lead from the beginning and Extremely Energy will likely be in the identical spot till the sector enters the stretch. This time, he can go by the pacesetters and pressers for the win.
Skinner is the one actual nearer within the discipline, as he has been seventh after 1 / 4 mile on common in his final 4 races. With solely six entered on this race, we are able to anticipate Skinner to be taking on that sixth place within the early phases. If the pacesetters tire one another out, Skinner may gain advantage significantly. Skinner confirmed lots of expertise when lacking by a nostril and a half-length within the 2023 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, incomes a career-best 106 determine. Then within the 2023 Native Diver Stakes, Skinner raced in final of seven for the primary half earlier than shifting up properly, ending up second on the end and incomes a 104 determine. The early fractions final 12 months had been average at greatest with the opening half mile in :48.6 and 6 furlongs in 1:13.4. This can be very unlikely the tempo will likely be that sluggish on this 12 months’s version of the race. Skinner can enhance significantly off a dash prep three weeks in the past following 11 months on the sidelines and it will be no shock if he ran previous the sector for the win.
About the remainder: As talked about beforehand, Mirahmadi earned a robust 110 determine successful final month however in opposition to maidens. Juan Hernandez had ridden the colt in his final 4 races however opts for Extremely Energy on this spot. Mixto posted the 22.20-1 upset within the Pacific Traditional at Del Mar in August however had not gained in six earlier begins since breaking his maiden and I view that race, even with a 108 determine, to be an outlier. The one win in seven begins since coming to the U.S. for Salesman got here within the 1 5/8-mile Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes a bit over a 12 months in the past, and though he earned a 108 determine, the trouble got here when he led from begin to end. It’s extremely unlikely he makes the lead within the Native Diver given the early velocity of Mirahmadi. Tarantino was claimed for $40,000 three races again in July, in a dash, then gained a dash and a route race with respectable 107 and 112 figures. He raced on the lead by means of the opening six furlongs in that route win 4 weeks in the past and is one other on this race who will likely be contesting the early tempo and certain tiring from his effort.
Win contenders in choice, handicapper’s likelihood order:
Extremely Energy
Skinner
