All through professional soccer historical past, there have been 18 cases wherein three groups in a division every made the playoffs. Because it stands by Week 11, one division is on tempo to turn into the nineteenth. The NFC North, by far the very best division in soccer by most measurements, already has the Detroit Lions (one seed), the Minnesota Vikings (5 seed), and the Inexperienced Bay Packers (six seed) within the convention’s prime seven for playoff prospects.
The place issues get fascinating is within the NFC West. Not that we’re going to see three groups from that division within the postseason, however every thing is in play on and close to the west coast. We’ve already mentioned the three AFC groups that might flip round their at present playoff-less standing with the precise successful formulation down the stretch, and right here’s how each NFC West workforce not named the Arizona Cardinals (who’re at present the NFC’s three-seed) might ascend into a greater place.
Proper now, the NFC West is by far the NFL’s most wide-open division. No workforce has greater than six wins, and no workforce has fewer than 5. All 4 groups have no less than a 16.2% likelihood to make the postseason, and no different division has 4 maybes like that. So, it is sensible that now we have the three groups in that division trying up on the three-seed Arizona Cardinals right here.
Observe: Staff DVOA metrics, opponent-adjusted remaining power of schedule, and playoff odds are courtesy of FTN, previously referred to as Soccer Outsiders.
Los Angeles Rams (5-5)
Present Playoff Odds: 17.8%
Remaining Power of Schedule: Fourth in DVOA
Let’s begin with the Rams, purely in alphabetical order. Matthew Stafford was with out Cooper Kupp in Weeks 3-6 with an ankle harm, and he was with out Puka Nacua in Weeks 2-6 with a knee harm. Since each have been again in Sean McVay’s offense, Stafford has seemed increasingly more just like the Stafford of outdated, which is all the time a harmful factor for the remainder of the league. With each Kupp and Nacua on the sector, Stafford has accomplished 70.7% of his passes for 8.0 yards per try, a landing fee of 5.2%, and an interception fee of 1.7%, With out them, Stafford accomplished 64.4% of his passes for 7.0 YPA, a landing fee of three.0%, and an interception fee of two.1%.
The place the Rams can actually go on a run, although, is with a younger protection that’s increasingly more able to mess up opponents. The entrance is filled with current and future stars like Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, and Byron Younger, and the secondary options first-year security Kamren Kinchens, who simply grew to become the primary rookie defensive again ever to win a number of Defensive Participant of the Week awards after his stellar performances in Weeks 9 and 11.
The Rams have fairly the remaining schedule, with video games towards the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Payments, and the massacre that the NFC West has turn into. However with two wholesome major receivers, and a protection on the rise in a giant hurry, it could be silly to wager too arduous towards them.
San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
Present Playoff Odds: 26.6%
Remaining Power of Schedule: Third in DVOA
The 49ers shouldn’t be in a spot the place they’re making an attempt to scratch and claw their method to the postseason. The defending NFC champs rank fifth in Offensive DVOA and sixth in Defensive DVOA, and Christian McCaffrey is again on the sector after lacking the primary eight weeks of the season as a consequence of harm.
The difficulty, in fact, is the Kyle Shanahan drawback – San Francisco can’t maintain fourth-quarter leads. They’ve already misplaced to all three division rivals regardless of fourth-quarter benefits, and this isn’t a one-year fluke. In his profession as a head coach – we’re not even speaking about 28-3 in Tremendous Bowl LI when he was the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator – Shanahan’s 49ers have misplaced seven video games with fourth-quarter leads, by far essentially the most within the NFL since 2017.
“It’s tremendous irritating,” future Corridor of Fame left sort out Trent Williams stated again in October.. “Clearly, now we have to determine learn how to shut out video games and learn how to get groups out early when now we have the possibility.”
The whys don’t matter. The 49ers can’t get significantly better than they already are when they’re sporting a lead. Nothing else will matter if they will’t clear up the plain.
As a result of that remaining schedule is a doozy. San Francisco has the Inexperienced Bay Packers, Buffalo Payments, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, and Arizona Cardinals left to take care of. Overlook about playoffs – with that slate and this drawback, this may very well be a first-to-worst story simply as simply as a redemption story.
Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
Present Playoff Odds: 16.2%
Remaining Power of Schedule: tenth in DVOA
In 2022, Mike Macdonald’s first season because the Baltimore Ravens’ defensive coordinator, Baltimore ranked eighth in Defensive DVOA. Not unhealthy, however Macdonald nonetheless wanted the personnel to go together with his schemes, and it didn’t occur in a single day. That the Ravens ranked first in Defensive DVOA in 2023 tells the longer-term story – when Macdonald has his guys, his defenses are the toast of the league.
Now, Macdonald is in his first 12 months because the Seahawks’ head coach, and he’s making an attempt to resuscitate a protection that had atypically fallen into disrepair on Pete Carroll’s watch. However the personnel doesn’t fairly match but, which is why Seattle at present ranks 14th in Defensive DVOA, and why Macdonald and basic supervisor John Schneider have been biking by defensive gamers at warp pace. It’s beginning to present on the sector, and given Macdonald’s defensive genius, you possibly can count on that to proceed.
The first drawback with Seattle’s playoff hopes this season is an offensive line which may be the worst within the NFL. They’ve labored by a number of facilities who can’t appear to snap the ball within the basic course of quarterback Geno Smith. Former Dolphins middle Connor Williams was speculated to be the panacea there, however he not too long ago and surprisingly retired from soccer after struggling his personal inaccuracy points with snaps. Seattle was all the way down to its fourth-string proper sort out earlier than Abe Lucas mercifully returned from harm towards the 49ers final Sunday after lacking the primary 9 video games of the season. And even left sort out Charles Cross, who typically seemed above-average to nice in his first two seasons, has been getting lit up from a stress perspective of late.
Smith has been pressured on 39.2% of his dropbacks this season, and this isn’t a younger, unaware quarterback who inadvertently runs himself into hassle on a regular basis. Smith has been okay beneath all that stress with seven landing passes, however seven interceptions have proven the inevitable draw back.
The Seahawks are in all probability a 12 months away from the place they wish to be within the post-Pete Carroll period, however they need to have the ability to put it collectively higher than this. If Mcdonald’s protection continues to enhance, and the offensive line can stop making Smith really feel like a child enjoying on the freeway, they’ve acquired pretty much as good an opportunity as anybody else within the Wild NFC West.
