With 11 full weeks within the books for the 2024 NFL season, there are groups which are making an attempt to maintain their campaigns from falling into the bidet earlier than it’s too late. None of them are at present within the high seven seeds of their convention playoff image, however all of them have methods to climb out of their dire straits if every thing begins to click on.
So, listed here are three groups outdoors the playoff race within the AFC who may truly play their manner in.
Be aware: Crew DVOA metrics, opponent-adjusted remaining power of schedule, and playoff odds are courtesy of FTN, previously referred to as Soccer Outsiders.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
Present Playoff Odds: 10.5%
Remaining Energy of Schedule: twenty ninth in DVOA
Sooner or later, somebody goes to have to assist Joe Burrow out just a little bit. The Bengals at present rank seventh in Offensive DVOA, twenty seventh in Defensive DVOA, and twenty ninth in Particular Groups DVOA, in order that tells you numerous about what’s going flawed right here. However it’s worse and extra ridiculous than chances are you’ll suppose. Within the Bengals’ seven losses, Burrow has accomplished 191 of 285 passes for two,156 yards, 18 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer ranking of 107.6. Ja’Marr Chase is at present the NFL’s receiving triple crown chief with 73 catches for 1,053 yards and 12 touchdowns. They may do higher than working again Chase Brown and his -12.2 EPA, however you possibly can let that slide when your quarterback and No. 1 receiver are enjoying at Most Useful Participant ranges with no optimistic returns.
The Bengals have misplaced three video games this season through which Burrow had three or extra passing touchdowns, 300-plus passing yards, and no interceptions — essentially the most such losses in a season within the Tremendous Bowl period. Need much more? Cincinnati has three losses this season through which Burrow has led them to 33 or extra factors. In his complete profession. Tom Brady had 4 such losses.
Perhaps that’s why Brady, who did quite a bit to amplify iffy receivers and mid-tier defenses to championships at varied factors in his profession, was so passionate in a current interview about what everybody else must do to present Burrow any degree of help.
And you may inform that it’s beginning to put on on Burrow.
“I’d by no means in 1,000,000 years count on me to play this effectively and he play this effectively and we nonetheless have a report like this (4-6).” – Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow react to the Bengals’ 35-34 loss to the Ravens pic.twitter.com/fE4EInaPXm
— James Rapien (@JamesRapien) November 8, 2024
The excellent news for the Bengals is that their protection most likely can’t get a lot worse, and even a protection in the course of the pack would possibly flip issues round given the relative ease of Cincinnati’s remaining schedule. If that doesn’t occur, Burrow and Chase will probably be historic footnotes in all of the worst doable methods.
Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
Present Playoff Odds: 20.8%
Remaining Energy of Schedule: twenty fourth in DVOA
The Colts have gone forwards and backwards with the concept of propping Joe Flacco up as their short-term quarterback as a result of they’re within the playoff hunt, and going with second-year man Anthony Richardson as a result of the solar goes down, and it’s time to develop Richardson for the long run. The as soon as 4-3 Colts misplaced three in a row earlier than beating the Jets final Sunday, and whereas beating the Jets isn’t precisely one thing that you simply wish to put in your resume, it could have saved Indy’s postseason probabilities, akin to they’re. However his current benching appeared to assist Richardson, and he’s at present the starter for the remainder of the season till and except head coach Shane Steichen decides to make one more change that’s a season-long concern (except it isn’t).
The Colts may use some defensive assist as effectively, however given defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s schematic constraints, there could also be limitations to a unit that at present ranks seventeenth in Defensive DVOA. Bradley’s protection has a ton of four-on-the-floor fronts, minimal protection switches, and prefers to play as an “execution protection” the place it’s extra on the gamers than the playbook. Which is okay when you’ve acquired all of the gamers.
So, it’s going to be extra about an offense that ranks twenty third in DVOA versus a remaining power of schedule that ranks twenty fourth. Until Richardson can construct on what he did in opposition to the Jets in an enormous hurry, the Colts might have run out of highway. However stranger issues have occurred.
Miami Dolphins (4-6)
Present Playoff Odds: 16.0%
Remaining Energy of Schedule: twenty seventh in DVOA
This one isn’t robust to determine. When the Dolphins have Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback as an alternative of Tyler Huntley or Skylar Thompson, they’re a significantly better staff. With Tagovailoa on the sphere, Miami has an Offensive EPA of +0.07, and a Passing EPA of +0.17. With out him, their Offensive EPA is -0.27, and their Passing EPA is -0.25. So, numerous Miami’s future story is about Tagovailoa staying wholesome and non-concussed, and protecting himself out of hurt’s manner. Which isn’t all the time the best factor to do.
One level of strain is out of the way in which – the 9-2 Buffalo Payments have a chokehold on the AFC East, so the Dolphins aren’t enjoying for that. Past that, Miami’s protection underneath first-year defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver has seen a critical bump from twenty eighth in Defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-9 to eleventh since. Given the final effectivity and explosiveness of Mike McDaniel’s offense when he has the suitable quarterback, that bettering protection, and a straightforward slate of video games down the stretch, the Dolphins, who began the season 1-3, are instantly a reputable postseason chance.
