Stay racing returns to the Truthful Grounds on Nov. 22 because the New Orleans racetrack hosts its a lot anticipated 2024-25 season. The meet will embody 76 race days via March 23 and can supply racing followers and handicappers a number of the finest racing and wagering to be discovered wherever in the course of the winter season.
The Truthful Grounds meet can be highlighted by 63 stakes price a complete of $8.875 million headlined by a number of the most essential races on the highway to the Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve. The Truthful Grounds stakes program for subsequent yr’s 3-year-olds is bound to construct a whole lot of curiosity within the meet. It’s going to start with the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes on Dec. 21 and can proceed with the $250,000, Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 18, the $500,000, Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 15, and the $1 million, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 22.
Truthful Grounds purses are up this season and high-quality racing on a day-in and day-out foundation is assured all through the meet, with a loaded jock’s room full of riders from across the nation and loads of good horses on the grounds representing many distinguished trainers.
Truthful Grounds High Trainers
The main coach ultimately yr’s 2023-24 Truthful Grounds season was Shane Wilson, who despatched essentially the most horses to put up of any barn on the meet and gained 50 races from 350 starters for 15%. Wilson can be again once more this season amongst a gaggle that can even embody different perennial main trainers like Tom Amoss (28 wins, 22% final yr), Brad Cox (27 wins, 28%), Bret Calhoun (24 wins, 16%), and Steve Asmussen (23 wins, 16%), in addition to different top-10 finishers from a yr in the past together with Joe Sharp (18 wins final yr), Keith Bourgeois (17 wins), Dallas Stewart (15 wins), and Albert Stall Jr. (14 wins).
Kentucky-based trainers resembling Ken McPeek, Brendan Walsh, Phil Bauer, and Cherie DeVaux additionally can have a robust presence at Truthful Grounds this season. Some trainers you may even see that Truthful Grounds followers might not be accustomed to will embody Brittany Russell, Ignacio Correas, and Linda Rice. Primarily based on outcomes from final yr, another trainers chances are you’ll wish to hold looking out for embody Rob Atras, who gained six races from 14 Truthful Grounds starters for 43%, Robert Falcone Jr., who gained with 5 of 16 starters for 31%, and Chad Brown, who’s more likely to have a small however efficient stakes presence after successful with three of his 5 starters ultimately yr’s meet.
High Truthful Grounds Jockeys
Final yr’s 2023-24 Truthful Grounds jockey title got here right down to a three-way battle gained by Jose Guerrero with 52 wins (16%) narrowly over Jareth Loveberry who completed with 51 wins (14%), and Corey Lanerie who had 49 wins (14%). Ben Curtis (43 wins, 17%), and Jaime Torres (42 wins, 15%) rounded out the highest 5.
A brand new rider on the 2024-25 meet who is bound to make a huge impact is Jose Ortiz, who rode the Kentucky circuit full time for the primary time this yr and can hope to hold over his successful methods to Truthful Grounds. Ortiz tied for the jockey title on the 2024 Churchill Downs spring meet and was one of many prime jockeys at Gulfstream Park final winter. He’ll be primarily based at Truthful Grounds over the upcoming winter for the primary time.
Brian Hernandez Jr. can be again at Truthful Grounds this season after racking-up 41 wins and a 17% win proportion at Truthful Grounds final yr. Since final being seen in New Orleans, Hernandez bolstered his prominence on a nationwide stage by successful the 2024 Mike Venezia Memorial Award and taking the 2024 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve aboard Mystik Dan and the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Longines Kentucky Oaks aboard Horse of the Yr candidate Thorpedo Anna.
Axel Concepcion, the 2023 Eclipse Award-winning apprentice jockey, additionally can be driving at Truthful Grounds this season, as will Jeiron Barbosa who’s transferring his tack from Maryland. These guys will search dwell mounts in a crowded jock’s room that additionally will embody Reylu Gutierrez, Florent Geroux, Edgar Morales, and Mitchell Murrill.
Truthful Grounds Important Observe Developments
Some of the notable issues for handicappers to find relating to the Truthful Grounds is that the observe is among the fairest surfaces within the nation relating to operating types. Regardless of if it’s a frontrunner, a pace-presser, a stalker, or a more in-depth, your horse ought to certainly have a good likelihood to win on the Truthful Grounds.
Even at honest racetracks, nonetheless, it’s all the time price trying on the latest developments and statistics to attempt to decide what operating types and put up positions give your horse its finest likelihood to win.
At the newest 2023-24 Truthful Grounds meet, essentially the most profitable operating model in sprints was early velocity. Horses racing on or near the tempo inside a size of the lead in sprints gained 187 of the 355 sprints to account for wins in 53% of the races. Inside velocity from posts 1-3 was the simplest. The mixture of front-end velocity from the within posts resulted in wins in 103 of the 355 sprints and accounted for 29% of all winners. Stalkers, as outlined by horses coming from between one to 4 lengths off the tempo, did next-best with wins in 120 of the 355 sprints to account for 34% of winners. Closers from four-plus lengths behind gained simply 48 of the 355 sprints accounting for wins in solely 14% of the races.
The phase of horses on the most danger from dangerous journeys as a result of put up positions in Truthful Grounds sprints are the mid-pack stalkers, who can get caught in robust spots huge on the flip in the event that they draw exterior posts in huge fields. These horses typically have for use too laborious to realize place going into the flip, or else they’ll fall into the Truthful Grounds entice of attempting to make center strikes whereas huge on the flip as an alternative of utilizing the extra prudent technique of ready till the lengthy Truthful Grounds straightaway earlier than launching successful late bids.
In grime routes run on the 2023-24 Truthful Grounds meet, the observe desire was for velocity horses racing on or near the tempo. That group gained 112 of the 276 grime routes run on the meet to account for 41% of the winners. Stalkers gained 86 routes (31% of the entire), and closers gained 78 routes (28% of the entire).
In Truthful Grounds route races run between one mile and 1 1/16 miles, put up place generally is a key concern because of the quick run to the primary flip. Horses that break from huge posts in these races can endure ground-losing journeys – particularly on the distance of 1 mile and 70 yards – giving velocity horses and pressers who break from the within a tactical benefit.
Publish positions performed a task as a handicapping consider Truthful Grounds grime routes final season. Horses from the within posts 1-3 gained 53% of the grime routes, versus horses from the center posts 4-6 that gained 39% of the races. The typical area measurement in grime routes was 7.11 horses per race, so exterior posts weren’t a giant issue; nonetheless, horses from exterior posts did nonetheless handle to win 25 races for a decent 9% of the entire.
Truthful Grounds Turf Ideas
Truthful Grounds is understood for carding loads of turf races however then having a whole lot of these races get taken off the turf. Adjusting for that is one thing Truthful Grounds handicappers should cope with frequently. There have been solely 47 turf routes run at Truthful Grounds on the 2023-24 meet. Turf sprints are uncommon and there have been solely 11 of these races run all season in 2023-24.
In Truthful Grounds turf routes, closers coming from 4 or extra lengths off the tempo are inclined to do the very best – and particularly, closers breaking from the center posts. Closers gained 20 of the 47 turf routes final season to account for wins in 43% of the races, and 13 of these 20 successful closers broke from posts 4-6 with that small phase of the horses accounting for wins in 28% of the turf routes run on the meet. Stalkers accounted for wins in 34% of the turf routes final season. Frontrunners carried out the worst as horses on or close to the lead gained solely 11 of the 47 turf routes to account for wins in 23% of the races.
Within the small quantity of turf sprints run final season, stalkers from between one size and 4 lengths off the tempo gained 8 of the 11 races. Within the decade of the 2020s there have been a complete of precisely 200 turf sprints run at Truthful Grounds. These races had been honest by way of put up positions and have favored stalkers to the tune of 85 successful stalkers within the 200 races. Closers do the worst within the turf sprints with simply 44 wins within the 200 turf sprints the final 4 years.
Now could be the time to prepare for the 2024-25 Truthful Grounds race meet. Benefit from the season and better of luck.
