The Grade 1, $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional brings collectively a full subject of 14 plus one additionally eligible to Del Mar on Nov. 2, and consists of 11 horses with Grade 1 or Group 1 stakes wins of their careers.
Metropolis of Troy, a Kentucky bred son of undefeated 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, has received six of seven races in his profession, all on turf and all in England or Eire. He most just lately received the Group 1 Juddmonte Worldwide Stakes in a subject of 13. Perpetually Younger is remembered for his stirring stretch battle on this yr’s Kentucky Derby introduced by Woodford Reserve the place he completed third overwhelmed by two noses. He has additionally received six of seven up to now, most just lately the Japan Grime Traditional Stakes. Subsequent, arguably the perfect horse in North America on filth at marathon distances starting from 1 3/8 miles to 1 ¾ miles, earned his seventh straight win final month within the Grade 3 Greenwood Cup Stakes. Highland Falls enters the Traditional off a win on the 1 1/4-mile distance within the Grade 1 Jockey Membership Gold Cup Stakes. Equally, Mixto received the Grade 1 FanDuel Racing Pacific Traditional Stakes on the distance and at Del Mar when final seen on the finish of August. Fierceness, who was favored within the Kentucky Derby this yr however completed 15th, has returned to win each races he’s run in since then, most just lately the Grade 1 Draftkings Travers Stakes on the distance of the Traditional. Tapit Trice received the Grade 2 Woodward Stakes in his most up-to-date race and is one other who matches at this degree. Ushba Tesoro completed fifth within the 2023 Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional then received the Group 1 Tokyo Daishoten Stakes final December, earlier than three second-place finishes this yr, two in group 1 stakes. Newgate received the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap Offered by Yaamava’ Resort & On line casino at this mile and one-quarter distance in March and most just lately was overwhelmed a head and a nostril within the Grade 1 California Crown Stakes introduced by SirDavis American Whisky. Arthur’s Trip received the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes in August earlier than ending fifth behind Highland Falls within the Jockey Membership Gold Cup, through which Pyrenees was second, the identical place he completed within the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes in June. Sierra Leone was concerned with Perpetually Younger within the Derby stretch battle. Subsequently, he completed second or third in three races, most just lately behind Fierceness within the Travers. Senor Buscador received the $20 million Group 1 Saudi Cup Stakes in February however has completed third, fourth and fifth since then. Derma Sotogake completed second within the 2023 Traditional however completed no higher than fifth in three races this yr. The lone additionally eligible within the subject is Rattle N Roll, who’s winless in 4 races since profitable the Blame Stakes in June 2023.
Evaluation and primary win contenders:
Profitable on the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Breeders’ Cup Traditional and related races takes a mix of velocity and stamina, and Subsequent has that and extra. Rather a lot will likely be mentioned about the truth that he has executed his finest at longer distances, starting from 1 3/8 miles to 1 ¾ miles, however earlier in his profession Subsequent received 3 times at distances from one mile to at least one mile and one-eighth. After becoming a member of the barn of William “Doug” Cowans within the spring of 2022, Subsequent received a turf race at 1 1/8 miles then two races later was entered in a 1 ½-mile turf race which was moved to filth. The remaining is historical past as Subsequent received the primary of seven straight races all at these longer distances talked about above. He led from begin to end in three of them however in 4 others he raced patiently in second till the ultimate flip, when Subsequent put in a burst of velocity to be in entrance with an eighth of a mile to run. Averaging a seven-length margin over his nearest rival on the eighth pole in every of these final seven wins, Subsequent remained unchallenged to the wire. Utilizing the GPS knowledge contained in Equibase charts and obtainable to racing followers in every single place, when profitable the Greenwood Cup on September 21, Subsequent by no means slowed down over the past 5 eights of a mile, persistently working 37 to 38 miles per hour. Subsequent did this whereas by no means shortening his stride, as indicated by a median stride size of 23.5 to 24 ft and a stride frequency of two.3 strides per second over greater than a half mile. Subsequent has additionally earned very constant Equibase Pace Figures of 109 and 110 in his final 4 races, demonstrating his 2024 marketing campaign has been executed completely. There could also be horses with extra early velocity than Subsequent on this yr’s Breeders’ Cup Traditional Discipline, however I don’t suppose there’s any horse as persistently quick, and as mentally powerful, as Subsequent and that could possibly be the important thing to incomes his eighth straight win and the most important win of his profession on this yr’s Traditional.
Metropolis of Troy solely must run as properly on filth, which he’s racing on for the primary time, as he has on turf, to win the Breeders’ Cup Traditional. A Kentucky-bred son of undefeated champion Justify, Metropolis of Troy definitely has the pedigree for 1 ¼ miles on filth, and he’s received on the distance (or near it) twice. When victorious within the Epsom Derby in June, Metropolis of Troy put in a really sturdy rally with three-eighths of a mile to run then drew off convincingly in a subject of 16, incomes a 123 determine. He then bettered that to 124 when profitable the Coral Eclipse Stakes in July on the distance of the Traditional, this time rallying from about three lengths again with three furlongs to run. Exhibiting a brand new dimension within the Juddmonte Worldwide Stakes in August, Metropolis of Troy went to the lead in a subject of 13 and held all of it the best way, enhancing to a career-best 129 determine. With such versatility and an amazing pedigree for filth, Metropolis of Troy has each proper to run one other “A” race ok to win.
I had been toying with quite a lot of very good equine athletes for my third win contender, and it was a shock even to me that it turned Tapit Trice after I checked out quite a lot of components. Now six-for-12 in his profession, Tapit Trice was thought of a high contender for the 2023 Kentucky Derby introduced by Woodford Reserve after a neck win within the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. He completed seventh in that race and was no higher than third in three races following the Derby in 2023. Rested 11 months, maybe with high coach Todd Pletcher pointing to this yr’s Traditional all alongside, Tapit Trice received the Monmouth Cup Stakes with a 106 determine which was fairly sturdy contemplating the prolonged layoff. Regressing to complete fourth within the Jockey Membership Gold Cup behind Highland Falls and Pyrenees, Tapit Trice bought again on observe in a giant means with a victory within the Woodward Stakes on the finish of September, incomes a profession finest 110 determine within the course of. Though the Woodward was run at 1 1/8 miles and though Tapit Trice has completed no higher than third in three tries at 1 1/4 miles, that’s not sufficient to attract a conclusion that he can’t run as properly at this distance as he has at 1 1/8 miles. Moreover, as a son of Tapit, sire of 2022 Traditional winner Flightline, I feel this distance will go well with Tapit Trice simply nice. Final, however not least, the GPS knowledge on Tapit Trice is similar to Subsequent, because the colt’s velocity via the final three-eighths of a mile within the Woodward was constant at 36 to 36.5 miles per hour, his stride size didn’t shorten because it averaged 25.5 over that very same distance, and his stride frequency remained fixed at 2.1 per second. What this appears to recommend is, as others tire within the remaining quarter mile, Tapit Trice will likely be working the identical velocity and might go these tiring pacesetters and pressers, presumably posting the upset win or not less than working a lot better than his excessive odds recommend he’ll.
Different contenders, with their finest Equibase Pace Figures: Ushba Tesoro (127), Newgate (122), Fierceness (110) and Perpetually Younger (110). Ushba Tesoro closed from 12th to fifth in final yr’s Traditional however is a yr older and extra mature. Though second in his final three races, Ushba Tesoro received the Tokyo Daishoten simply previous to that with a 123 determine and earned a 127 determine when second within the Dubai World Cup in March at this distance. Newgate completed ninth within the World Cup then after six months off ran completely the perfect race of his profession when overwhelmed a head and a nostril within the California Crown Stakes on September 28, incomes a 122 determine. Fierceness has received two stakes races in a row versus three yr olds, incomes a 108 determine within the Jim Dandy Stakes introduced by Mohegan Solar after which a 110 determine within the Travers (on the distance of the Traditional), through which he beat the wonderful filly Thorpedo Anna by a head. Perpetually Younger missed in a 3 horse picture on this yr’s Derby or in any other case is perhaps undefeated in seven races. He has been pointing to this race since then and simply beat 14 horses within the Japan Grime Traditional at this distance so he enters the race in high type, having earned back-to-back 110 figures within the Kentucky Derby and the U.A.E. Derby simply previous to that.
The remainder of the Traditional subject, with their finest Equibase Pace Figures, is Arthur’s Trip (115), Derma Sotogake (117), Highland Falls (113), Mixto (108), Pyrenees (108), Rattle N Roll (115), Senor Buscador (114) and Sierra Leone (110).
High contenders in choice order:
Subsequent
Metropolis of Troy
Tapit Trice
Different horses of word:
Ushba Tesoro
Newgate
Fierceness
Perpetually Younger
