The Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional is the marquee race in North America within the second half of the 12 months, a 1 ¼-mile race with a $7 million purse that goes a great distance towards figuring out Horse of the Yr. This 12 months would be the 41st version of the Breeders’ Cup Traditional. A lot has modified within the sport of horse racing because the first version in 1984, however historical past can information us in a number of methods by way of what to search for in a Traditional winner.
I’ve compiled information on the final 25 editions of the race to attempt to establish useful tendencies for selecting the winner of this 12 months’s version Nov. 2 at Del Mar. Utilizing the Breeders’ Cup Classics from 1999 to 2023, there are a number of factors that bounce out as important.
Favorites are profitable extra typically
There have been some longshot winners of the Traditional within the final 25 years, however seven favorites have received within the 20 editions since 2004 and the final 9 winners (and 10 of the final 11) have been lower than 5-1 odds. Seven of these 9 winners had been 7-2 odds or much less. Merely put, you didn’t have to enterprise previous the logical winners lately.
The common profitable odds since 1999 for the Traditional winner had been 7.5-1 with a median of 4.4-1.
Impeccable current type
Primarily based on the pattern above, it’s no shock that current Breeders’ Cup Traditional winners have entered the race in tip-top type. Traditional winners over the previous 25 years have been distinctive within the 5 months main as much as the race – from June 1 by means of (however not together with) the Breeders’ Cup Traditional.
The final 25 Traditional winners compiled a cumulative report of 46 wins from 79 begins for a 58.2% profitable proportion and completed within the prime three in 74 of these 79 races, good for 93.7%.
The final 10 years have yielded even higher outcomes with 22 wins from 30 cumulative begins (73.3%) by Traditional winners from June by means of their closing prep races from 2014 to 2023. These horses completed first, second, or third in 28 of their 30 begins.
Moreover, 16 of the 25 winners entered the Breeders’ Cup Traditional off a win and Vino Rosso in 2019 crossed the end line first within the Jockey Membership Gold Cup however was disqualified and positioned second. The final 11 winners both received their closing prep or ran second, overwhelmed by lower than a size. Inconsistent racehorses simply don’t win the Breeders’ Cup Traditional.
Elite class
The final 20 winners of the race had been all confirmed Grade or Group 1 winners. Twenty-three of the 25 already had a Grade 1 win on their résumés and the opposite two had been Grade 2 winners.
The Breeders’ Cup Traditional is just not a spot for a breakout efficiency from a runner on the rise, it’s a race received by established stars.
New York, New York
Twelve of the final 25 Breeders’ Cup Traditional winners made their closing pre-World Championships begin in New York, together with 5 of the final 9. That stunned me a bit as solely two of the 25 occasions had been held within the state.
In truth, 11 of the final 25 Breeders’ Cups had been held in California. Should you take away the 2 held at Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park in 2008 and 2009 – the one two editions within the final 25 years held on an all-weather floor – 5 of these 9 California Breeders’ Cup Classics had been received by horses who prepped in New York.
California is a transparent second with seven winners, together with 5 popping out of the race now referred to as the California Crown (previously the Goodwood then Superior Once more Stakes). The opposite six winners got here from Kentucky (2), Europe, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey.
Tactical pace, particularly not too long ago, is advantageous
Closers can and do win the Breeders’ Cup Traditional – 4 closers within the final 25 years to be exact – however make no mistake, tactical pace has been a big benefit within the 1 ¼-mile race. Eleven of the final 25 winners profiled as racehorses that most popular to race on or close to the lead. Of the final dozen Breeders’ Cup Traditional winners, six led after the opening quarter-mile and none was greater than 3 ½ lengths again at that time within the race. The final 12 had been second or higher in early stretch, so this race not too long ago has not been received by horses rallying from means again.
On the dust in California
Eleven of the final 25 editions of the Breeders’ Cup had been held in California with 9 at Santa Anita Park and two at Del Mar. Should you take away the 2 held at Oak Tree at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009 – the one two editions within the final 25 years held on an all-weather floor – what do the California Traditional winners seem like?
The oldest of the 9 on this pattern was received by Corridor of Fame coach Richard Mandella’s nearer Pleasantly Excellent, a Grade 2 winner who was victorious in 2003. The final eight (2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023) had been received by confirmed Grade 1 winners and all had been received by horses that had been inside 2 ½ lengths of the entrance after the primary half-mile with 4 of the eight setting the tempo. The final seven of this group completed first of their closing Breeders’ Cup prep, though Vino Rosso, as talked about above, was disqualified and positioned second within the 2019 Jockey Membership Gold Cup.
What makes for a reside longshot?
Sadly for longshot gamers, this race has not been a hotbed for upsets with solely seven $20 winners since 1999 – and 4 of these got here within the first 5 years of the 25-year pattern.
There have been solely three $20 winners since 2004 and certainly one of them, Raven’s Go in 2008, was an completed European invader who received the race throughout one of many two occasions held on an all-weather floor. Three potential avenues for worth are: three of the seven $20 winners had been 3-year-olds, three of the seven had been closers or nearer/stalker varieties, and 4 positioned (prime three) however didn’t win their closing prep race.
Odds and ends
It takes a quick racehorse to win the Breeders’ Cup Traditional, no shock given the gravity and status of the marquee race of the World Championships. The common profitable Equibase Pace Determine for the winner from 1999 by means of 2023 was 121.1 with a median of 120, with a variety of 113 to 130. A top quality 3-year-old is a viable win candidate with eighth of the final 25 editions, or 32%, received by 3-year-olds going through older horses.
Most Possible 2024 Winners
I might think about Draftkings Travers Stakes winner Fierceness and European invader Metropolis of Troy would be the top-two betting decisions with Japanese invaders Without end Younger and Ushba Tesoro maybe not too far behind. Of those 4, Fierceness stands out.
Historical past would counsel Fierceness has a fantastic shot to win. He’s a champion with three Grade 1 wins to his credit score in terrific type with victories in each of his begins because the begin of June. He’s a 3-year-old with tactical pace who enters off a win in New York Aug. 24 within the Travers Stakes at this 1 ¼-mile distance.
I’m much less assured in Metropolis of Troy regardless of a number of constructive tendencies as a result of this can be his first begin on a mud predominant monitor. Raven’s Go on the all-weather floor in 2008 is the lone European winner during the last 25 years, though Arcangues in 1993 authored the best upset within the historical past of the World Championships at 133.60-1 odds in his first begin on dust.
Metropolis of Troy is a Kentucky-bred 3-year-old by 2018 Triple crown winner Justify, he has received three Group 1 races because the begin of June with no defeats, and boasts some tactical pace. The cruising pace he’s proven so far might be a far cry from the kind of early pace he would want on dust to be inside a number of lengths early within the Traditional. I’m hesitant to take a brief value on a horse attempting one thing for the primary time, on this case racing on dust in opposition to the perfect dust routers on the planet.
Without end Younger completed third within the Kentucky Derby Presentee by Woodford Reserve in Could and received his first begin since then Oct. 2 within the Japan Filth Traditional. He’s not received on the Grade/Group 1 degree and didn’t present within the Kentucky Derby the tactical pace that helped him win the United Arab Emirates Derby in March. Nonetheless, he completed third by a head in a gutsy race at Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby was his lone defeat in seven profession begins and he was bumped steadily within the stretch run. I’m a bit apprehensive that he is perhaps nearer to the again of the pack than inside a number of lengths of the tempo, however I feel his class is established regardless of the shortage of a top-level win on his résumé.
Ushba Tesoro received the 2023 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline amongst three Group 1 victories and completed second in his most up-to-date begin, so he checks the category and type containers. His lack of early pace harm his probabilities final 12 months within the Traditional when he was fifth and entered the race on a six-race profitable streak. He’s completed second in all three of his races this 12 months. I imagine Ushba Tesoro may win the Breeders’ Cup Traditional, however I would want an enormous value to again him, so he may match extra of the longshot mould for my part.
Likewise, I might need worth to again Sierra Leone to win. He’s a Grade 1-winning 3-year-old nearer with two wins, two seconds, and two thirds in six races. He enters off a 3rd within the Travers and has not received any of his final 4 races. He additionally tends to be overbet.
Highland Falls has two wins and one second in his three begins since June. The Kentucky-bred colt by two-time Horse of the Yr Curlin out of 2006 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Spherical Pond enters out of a Grade 1 win in New York, taking the Jockey Membership Gold Cup by 4 lengths at this 1 ¼-mile distance. He’s proven extra tactical pace with expertise and he’s the perfect he’s ever been. I feel he’s a powerful win contender in case you are wanting past the plain entrants.
Newgate earned his first Grade 1 win in March for Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert and was third by a head Sept. 28 within the Grade 1 California Crown Offered by SirDavis American Whisky, incomes a 122 Equibase Pace Determine. That was his lone begin since an unplaced end within the Dubai World Cup in March and this 4-year-old with tactical pace may enhance in his second begin off the prolonged layoff at what figures to be a stable value.
