This 12 months’s season kicks off Monday at Izumo, the place 2022-2023 winner Komazawa College tries to make it 3 in a row. Regardless of dropping 2 of final 12 months’s prime members, Taiyo Yasuhara and Mebuki Suzuki, to commencement and the absence of star Third-year Keita Sato who remains to be rehabbing an damage, Komazawa’s crew is sort of precisely as sturdy because it was final 12 months, when it gained by 2 minutes regardless of being ranked solely 4th within the area.
However out of the 9 Kanto Area groups within the Izumo area, Komazawa is the one one which is not stronger on weighted common of its 6 quickest males over 5000 m and 10000 m. Meaning it is available in ranked Sixth, nonetheless a stable contender for prime 3 however a stretch for the win. Captain Kotaro Shinohara is contemporary off a JPN-born outside 5000 m collegiate report 13:15.70 two weeks in the past in Niigata and 1st-year Shunsuke Kuwata stepped up the identical weekend with a 13:39.47 PB, so likelihood is good Komazawa will are available in swinging even with out Sato.
On the prime of the rankings is the Ivy League Choose Crew, which incorporates folks like Kieran Tuntivate, Acer Iverson, Perry Mackinnon and Matthew Pereira who’re pretty much as good as the very best Japan has produced. However final 12 months the Ivies had been ranked #2 and completed solely thirteenth out of 21 groups, so it is in all probability finest to not get too excited. Excluding 2 years when it had non-Ivy members, in 20 appearances the Ivy League has solely made prime 10 twice, ending Ninth in 2015 and tenth in 2017. Doing it once more this 12 months can be spectacular given how good all the opposite groups are.
Aoyama Gakuin College was ranked Third final 12 months and completed solely fifth, but it surely went on to win Hakone and has had plenty of momentum since then. 4th-year Masaya Tsurukawa ran a 13:18.51 this season, on the time the all time outside 5000 m mark by a Japanese-born collegiate runner earlier than Shinohara eclipsed it, and general AGU has the quickest 6-man 5000 m common within the area, 13:32.96. It is a heavy favourite for the win.
Assuming each crew is at 100%, which by no means occurs, the very best bets to present AGU a race for the win are Koku Gakuin College, 4th final 12 months, and Soka College, 2nd final 12 months. KGU has the quickest 6-man 10000 m common within the area after the Ivy League, 28:12.42, the quickest half marathon common, 1:01:48, and consists of 1:00:43 half marathoner Ayumu Yamamoto and a pair of:06:18 marathoner Kiyoto Hirabayashi. Half marathon credentials can be extra related at Nationals and Hakone, and if there is a weak point in KGU’s armor it is the 5000 m, the place it has solely the Seventh-best 6-man common.
Soka completed 2nd final 12 months 2 minutes behind Komazawa however had its crew inserting stripped when Kenyan Kamina Leakey had a constructive drug take a look at after getting back from coaching at house. Even with him gone the Soka crew is superior to final 12 months’s, particularly over the 10000 m the place it is ranked #3 at 28:19.39 on 6-man common. Below head coach Kazutaka Enoki Soka has tended to punch above its weight, and given the way it ran final 12 months it’s going to in all probability land some fairly stable punches on AGU and KGU.
Barely again from the three favorites, Josai College has been constructing towards one thing particular, ending Third at Izumo final 12 months, fifth at Nationals after which a stunning Third at Hakone. It is the one crew within the area other than the Ivies to have two males below 28 minutes for 10000 m, Third-years Victor Kimutai and Shoya Saito, however at this level within the season it is somewhat inclined to an absence of depth, depending on them and 4th-year Itsuki Hirabayashi with a spot again to the remainder of the crew.
Komazawa leads a trio of groups one other step again, with Daito Bunka College making it again to Izumo after taking tenth at Hakone, and final 12 months’s Sixth-place finisher Waseda College. Each groups are on the best way up, DBU led by 1st-years Takuma Ohama and Evans Kiprop and Waseda by 4th-year Taishi Ito and this 12 months’s nationwide XC champ Tomonori Yamaguchi. DBU’s strengths lead extra towards 10000 m and Waseda’s to 5000 m, so with a median stage size of seven.52 km Izumo would be the good assembly within the center.
After that it is a race between the final 3 Kanto Area groups and perhaps the Ivy League to make the highest 10. Toyo College is ranked Ninth however is one other crew that often runs increased than potential, having completed eighth final 12 months. The most important stroke towards it’s the absence, once more, of senior Kosuke Ishida, who had a stellar observe season after lacking all of final 12 months’s ekiden season. Ending Ninth behind Toyo final 12 months, Hosei College is ranked tenth this time round. Teikyo College made Izumo off a Ninth-place end at Hakone, however its strengths lie largely on the half marathon distance and it could want an excellent day and a few luck to make prime 10 right here.
Virtually all the very best male highschool distance runners go to varsity within the Kanto Area to have an opportunity to run Hakone, which means that it is powerful for even a single faculty from another area to beat even the final Kanto crew. Izumo is just about the one place it ever occurs, but it surely does not appear like this can be one of many years the place it does. With PBs of 13:49.54, 28:28.40 and 1:02:44 Kyoto Sangyo College 4th-year Kaito Kojima is unquestionably ok to have gone to any of the highest Kanto packages, however as a crew KSU’s prime 6 averages of 14:11.96, 29:16.07 and 1:04:34 do not even come inside 2 seconds per km of bottom-ranked Kanto crew Teikyo’s, so it could in all probability take somebody on one other crew entering into critical hassle for them to have a shot of operating down even 1 Kanto faculty.
Fuji TV has the dwell Izumo broadcast beginning at 13:00 native time Monday. JRN can be on-site in Izumo to cowl the race dwell.
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