Welcome again to Prime of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas concerning the sport we love.
The Blue Jays haven’t but crashed right into a windowpane, by no means to recuperate, however 23-26 actually isn’t what was anticipated of them getting into the season. Earlier than the season, our playoff odds gave them 49% likelihood to make the postseason. Toronto’s odds peaked at 57.9% on April 22, however since then, the workforce has fallen off. As of this morning, the Blue Jays have a 24.0% chance to make the playoffs. That leaves them with some severe choices to make over the following two or so months earlier than the July 30 deadline. Contemplating their present scenario, let’s check out their choices in the event that they select to not bolster their huge league roster by the tip of July.
Stand Pat
That is essentially the most simple choice: Don’t do something and hope for some enhancements. Each hitter aside from Daulton Varsho, Davis Schneider, and Danny Jansen has underperformed this yr, and perhaps the Blue Jays can keep within the hunt lengthy sufficient for his or her bats to catch hearth. The group might decide that is its best choice just because their gamers in all probability would have much less commerce worth whereas they’re enjoying under expectations. If the return bundle isn’t what the Blue Jays need, why not keep they course?
Solely Promote The Leases
The Blue Jays have a complete bunch of free brokers after the 2025 season. And whereas they might determine to commerce these guys (extra on this later), Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins might discover it greatest to carry on to them and go for one final run subsequent season. However that doesn’t take the Blue Jays out of the motion on the deadline; they’ve a number of engaging gamers on expiring contracts to dangle to contenders.
Justin Turner has slumped horribly just lately — getting into final evening’s sport, his wRC+ in Could was -21, after 152 in March/April, bringing his seasonal wRC+ right down to 96 — but when he can rebound to being solidly above common, contenders could be blissful to accumulate his righty bat and postseason expertise. The Twins, Rangers, and Rays all have gotten wRC+ values under 80 from their designated hitters, and Turner also can fill in at third base, second base, and first.
Yimi García has been certainly one of baseball’s greatest relievers this season, permitting only one run in 19 innings. He’s additionally struck out 35% of opponents, and his xERA (1.44) and FIP (2.24) each again up his strong efficiency. He would make any contender’s bullpen higher, and he’s all the time bounced round between roles, so he doesn’t must be pigeonholed into a selected inning or scenario. It’s price noting that García has by no means been this good earlier than, and as Ben Clemens wrote in his column yesterday, “you possibly can’t commerce your newfound reliever for a shiny prospect,” so it’s unlikely that García alone would web the Blue Jays a robust return bundle. That mentioned, if Toronto is out of the race, it’d as properly get one thing for a 33-year-old reliever who may not be with the workforce subsequent yr anyway.
Lefty Yusei Kikuchi is slightly quietly pitching the perfect he ever has within the majors, with a 2.64 ERA throughout 10 begins and a career-low stroll charge of 5.5%. Groups all the time want beginning pitching, and his above-average charge of inducing grounders and popups will play wherever.
Rounding out this group is Jansen, who on a charge foundation has hit higher than every other catcher in baseball, with a 191 wRC+ in 82 journeys to the plate getting into final evening’s sport. His harm historical past ought to scare groups just a little bit; he’s by no means had greater than 384 plate appearances in a season, and that was again in 2019. It’s additionally price noting, as our affiliate editor Matt Martell wrote final yr for the New York Instances, that groups not often commerce for a catcher in the course of the season due to the actual challenges that include the place. Even so, I believe Jansen is well-suited for the function Mitch Garver held final yr with the Rangers: catching typically but additionally getting loads of plate appearances at DH to verify his bat stays within the lineup.
Defensive whiz Kevin Kiermaier, righty changeup specialist Trevor Richards, and lefty energy bat Daniel Vogelbach spherical out the group of seven Blue Jays who get to fly freely on the finish of the season.
Blow It Up
OK, however what if the Jays do determine to kind of tear it down? In any case, it’s the struggling huge three hitters — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer — who deserve at the very least a good chunk of the blame for Toronto’s underperformance. The workforce didn’t even get a homer from a cleanup hitter till Bichette hit one on Wednesday — 48 video games into the season!
I don’t assume the Blue Jays would go as far as to commerce Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, or José Berríos, since Berríos is the one one pitching notably properly this yr and his decide out after 2026 might complicate issues an excessive amount of to work out a commerce, however the remainder of that group of gamers with membership management past this season could possibly be on the block, headlined by Guerrero Jr. and Bichette.
Vladdy continues to tantalize along with his bullet dwelling runs (although he has solely 5 this yr) and large exit velocity, however as we transfer additional and additional away from it, his MVP-caliber 2021 marketing campaign appears to be like extra like an outlier than an indication of issues to come back, because it absolutely seemed to be in its rapid aftermath. Nonetheless, he’s in simply his age-25 season, and it’s completely believable that one other workforce may deliver out the perfect in him. I’m puzzled making an attempt to determine what he’d deliver again in a commerce, since he’s making $19.9 million this yr and can in all probability be up round $25 million subsequent yr, however let’s not overthink issues. He’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and if his suitors aren’t going to surrender at the very least one high 100 prospect for him, the Blue Jays ought to inform them to get misplaced.
Bichette is kind of the identical man on the finish of each season, with a wRC+ between 120 and 130 in every of the final 4 years; during the last three, he’s hit 29, 24, and 20 dwelling runs, respectively. His fielding is all the time under common (however not horrible), and the one talent that’s on the decline is his base-stealing, with 25 stolen bases in 2021 adopted by 13 in ’22 and simply 5 final season, although he already has 4 this yr. On the floor, the person is a metronome, however issues get … bizarre … beneath the hood. Final yr, his first-half wRC+ was 132, adopted by 109 within the second half. The yr prior, it was simply 106 within the first half earlier than he surged to 164 after the All-Star break. That streakiness is why I’m actually not involved about his efficiency to date this yr; the dude is sure to get scorching in some unspecified time in the future! It might be silly of groups to only assume issues will even out, however they shouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into his gradual begin, both. A contending workforce in want of a shortstop this yr, such because the Giants or Guardians, would definitely have an interest.
The Blue Jays would get way more modest returns for right-handed nearer Jordan Romano, righty relievers Chad Inexperienced and Erik Swanson, lefty relievers Tim Mayza and Génesis Cabrera, and utilitymen Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Cavan Biggio, however they could possibly be used as an add-on piece to sweeten the return in a commerce for certainly one of Toronto’s high gamers or to accumulate prospect depth in a separate deal. In any case, the Blue Jays’ farm system has simply two Prime 100 Prospects: lefty pitcher Ricky Tiedemann and infielder Orelvis Martinez.
I’m not right here to advocate for Toronto to take any explicit path; I’m simply laying out the choices. The worst plan for the Blue Jays could be not having one.
Weekend Windup
Listed here are some issues to regulate as we head into the lengthy Memorial Day weekend:
• Ketel Marte appears to be like to increase his 21-game hitting streak — the longest within the majors this season — when the Diamondbacks start a three-game set at dwelling tonight in opposition to the Marlins. Lefty Braxton Garrett will get the beginning for Miami, which bodes properly for Marte, who’s hitting .347 in opposition to lefties this yr.
• The Cubs and Cardinals will lastly meet for the primary time this yr, opening a three-game set tonight at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have regarded cooked for a lot of the first quarter of the season, however they enter the weekend simply 5 video games out of first place within the NL Central after profitable eight of their final 10 video games — together with being the primary workforce to brush the Orioles within the common season since Adley Rutschman got here up two years in the past.
In the meantime, the Cubs are trending in the other way after going 3-7 of their final 10 video games. Nonetheless, they’re solely two video games behind the first-place Brewers. After a run of dealing with loads of excessive octane beginning pitchers (Jared Jones, Paul Skenes, Max Fried, Chris Sale, AJ Smith-Shawver), they’ll get to see three lower-velocity guys in Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, and Sonny Grey.
• Juan Soto returns to San Diego for the primary time for the reason that Padres traded him to the Yankees final December, and comes again to city on hearth. Over his final six video games, Soto is 9-for-23 (.391) with 4 dwelling runs and 7 RBIs. After a mini-slump dropped his common to .301 and his OPS to .917, these numbers are again to .312 and .972, respectively. He’ll be flanked within the lineup as typical by Anthony Volpe, who’s received a 16-game hitting streak, and Aaron Decide, who homered but once more on Thursday for his fifteenth of the season.
• As soon as his 10-game suspension for pitching with “sticky stuff” is over, Ronel Blanco is ready to return on Sunday in opposition to the A’s. Whereas he asserted the substance he received caught utilizing was simply rosin blended with sweat, he’ll absolutely be beneath elevated scrutiny. Blanco, who has a 2.09 ERA in eight begins to this point in 2024, was the primary pitcher to be suspended for international substances this season after 4 had been suspended final yr.
• Nick Lodolo is aiming to return to the Reds rotation on Monday, and boy may they use him. The Reds have floundered to a 4-16 file of their final 20 video games, and Lodolo had a 3.34 ERA and a couple of.90 FIP in six begins earlier than hitting the IL with a groin harm. That was his second IL stint this yr, after he missed the season’s first couple weeks whereas recovering from the leg fracture that value him most of 2023.
