Fall racing returns to Keeneland Race Course because the annual October season will get able to open for its 17-day meet from Friday, Oct. 4 to Saturday, Oct. 26. Keeneland will appeal to large fields and high quality horses to supply one thing for all horseplayers, together with prime 2-year-old racing, nice turf racing, and top-rung racing and wagering in any respect ranges within the coronary heart of Bluegrass nation in Lexington, Ky.
Keeneland’s 22 fall stakes races will supply mixed purses of $9.85 million and can embrace six Grade 1 races – 5 of that are run on opening “Fall Stars Weekend,” Oct. 4-6. The Keeneland fall meet additionally will probably be extraordinarily necessary by way of the Breeders’ Cup with Fall Stars Weekend internet hosting eight Breeders’ Cup Problem Sequence “Win and You’re In” races.
Pretty much as good as Keeneland’s opening weekend will probably be, there’ll nonetheless be three nice weeks of racing to observe for racing followers and handicappers to take pleasure in. Let’s take a look at some elements that may allow you to make profitable bets on the Keeneland fall meet.
Keeneland fundamental monitor profitable traits
Keeneland’s race meet comes and goes quick, so the time is now for handicappers to start out brushing up on the issues they should know to money tickets through the fall season.
Let’s begin by taking a look at sprints in an effort to discover the popular Keeneland fundamental monitor operating types. In dust sprints, Keeneland positively is without doubt one of the tracks the place you don’t wish to wager on horses attempting to come back from too far off the tempo. Horses profit by staying inside 4 lengths of the entrance, and pace horses on the lead or inside a size of the tempo have the most effective probability to win.
In 137 dust sprints run on the final two Keeneland meets (2023 fall meet and 2024 spring meet), 76 have been received by horses on or near the tempo accounting for 55% of the winners. Stalkers received 50 instances accounting for 36% of the dust dash wins. Late runners closing from 4 or extra lengths off the lead received solely 11 races for 8%. With a median dust dash subject measurement of 8.66 runners per race, there was little or no favoritism by way of inside, center, or outdoors publish positions.
Dust routes at Keeneland over the course of the final 12 months have additionally been truthful by way of publish positions with a median subject measurement of seven.72 runners per race. An evaluation of the popular operating types in dust routes reveals front-end favoritism, however not practically as robust as in sprints. Horses on or near the lead received 34 of the 78 dust routes run the final 12 months accounting for 44%. Stalkers received 26 races accounting for 33% of the wins, and closers received 18 instances (23% of the races).
Based mostly on these stats in each fundamental monitor sprints and routes due to this fact, a horses’ possibilities of profitable lower primarily based on how far off the tempo will probably be within the race.
Keeneland fall turf suggestions
One of many staples of the standard day-to-day racing at Keeneland is high-quality turf racing, which usually options full aggressive fields.
The profitable monitor profile is totally different in Keeneland turf routes than it’s in dust races. All operating types and publish positions have respectable possibilities in Keeneland turf routes primarily based on stats from the previous 12 months, however there’s a operating model choice towards off-the-pace horses. In 69 turf routes run on the 2023 fall and 2024 spring meets, stalkers had the sting with horses racing between 1-4 lengths off the tempo profitable 29 instances accounting for 42% of the races. Late runners coming from not less than 4 lengths off the tempo received 21 races (30%), and horses racing on or near the tempo fared the worst with 19 wins within the 69 turf routes (28%).
Turf routes had a median subject measurement of 10.4 horses per race and inside, center, and outdoors posts have all been truthful the previous 12 months in Keeneland turf routes. If there may be any handicapping angle to be present in these publish place statistics, it’s that outdoors attracts beginning at post-position 7 really did the most effective, profitable 39% of the turf routes versus posts 1-3 that yielded winners in 35% of the races and posts 4-6 that yielded winners in 26% of the races. Many handicappers downgrade the possibilities of outdoors horses in turf routes, and if that’s the case, it’s best to have the ability to discover reside overlays on missed outdoors horses in Keeneland turf routes.
Keeneland doesn’t card many turf sprints. There have been solely a complete of 27 turf sprints run on the 2023 fall and 2024 spring meets mixed, and a complete of 53 turf sprints run relationship again two years. Early pace, stalking, and shutting operating types all had related success within the turf sprints. The one statistical benefit proven in these races over the last two years favored outdoors horses drawn in posts 7 and better. These horses from outdoors posts did the most effective, profitable 22 of the 53 races to account for wins in 42% of the turf sprints.
Keeneland fall meet jockeys to look at
The jockey title on the corresponding 2023 Keeneland fall meet was received by Tyler Gaffalione who had 25 winners to prime runner-up Luis Saez’s 20 winners. Saez, who received the 2022 Keeneland fall meet title 21 wins to twenty over Gaffalione, was coming back from an damage final 12 months and missed the primary few days of the meet. This units up an fascinating battle to see who will prevail atop the jockey standings this season with Gaffalione and Saez very probably main the best way.
Flavien Prat completed third on the 2023 fall meet with 16 winners, adopted by John Velazquez with 10 winners. Ricardo Santana Jr. rounded out the highest 5 with eight wins.
Different jockeys who may make their presence felt within the 2024 Keeneland jockey standings embrace Joel Rosario (5 wins in 2023 and 13 wins in 2022), Florent Geroux (six wins in 2023 and 12 wins in 2022), and Brian Hernandez Jr. (six wins every of the previous two fall meets).
Keeneland fall main coach traits
Brad Cox received the corresponding Keeneland fall meet coaching title in 2023 with 13 winners from 57 starters for 23%. Chad Brown was second with seven winners from 23 starters, but it surely needs to be famous he had a considerably larger 30% win proportion. Cox additionally received the 2022 Keeneland fall meet coaching title with 11 wins as Todd Pletcher and Wesley Ward completed shut behind with 10 wins apiece. Cox, Brown, Pletcher, and Ward all needs to be among the many prime trainers on the 2024 Keeneland fall meet.
Moreover Brown, a few of the different trainers who earned excessive win percentages ultimately 12 months’s Keeneland fall meet included Chris Hartman (6-for-24, 25%), Tom Amoss (5-for-18, 28%), Phil Bauer (4-for-9, 44%), and Ben Colebrook (4-for-12, 33%). Illinois-based Armando Hernandez received three of his 4 begins.
Handicappers additionally may be to know one thing in regards to the trainers who had disappointing seasons on the Keeneland fall meet in 2023. That group included Rusty Arnold (0-for-22 after going 1-for-26 in 2022), D. Wayne Lukas (0-for-15), Ron Moquett, (0-for-20), Al Stall Jr. (0-for-14), Wayne Catalano (0-for-15), Saffie Joseph Jr. (1-for-16), and Brian Lynch (1-for-17).
Hopefully the following tips and traits from Keeneland may also help you might have a profitable fall season in 2024. Benefit from the meet and better of luck.
