Southern California racing returns to Santa Anita Park with the observe’s 2024 Autumn Meet set to start on Sept. 27 and proceed by Sunday, Oct. 27. Santa Anita’s fall meet is among the season’s premier meets and is bound to supply prime betting alternatives and high-quality racing on each the turf and dust.
Along with every day top-notch racing at each stage, Santa Anita will provide 22 stakes together with the inaugural $1 million, Grade 1 California Crown Stakes Introduced by SirDavis American Whisky throughout its 16-raceday season. The stakes program can be an necessary steppingstone for horses making ready for this fall’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
The primary-ever California Crown Day at Santa Anita will characteristic 5 stakes price $2.8 million in purse cash on Saturday, Sept. 28. The occasion’s namesake California Crown Stakes for 3-year-olds and older at 1 1/8 miles on dust is the reimagined model of the previous Superior Once more Stakes that serves as Santa Anita’s main prep race for the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional.
Along with the California Crown, Santa Anita will host 4 extra Breeders’ Cup Problem Sequence “Win and You’re In” qualifying races in the course of the fall meet, together with the Metropolis of Hope Mile Stakes Introduced by MyRacehorse (prep for FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Introduced by PDJF) on Sept. 28. The opposite three Breeders’ Cup Problem Sequence races are on Oct. 5: the Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes Introduced by Oak Tree (prep for NetJets Juvenile Fillies), the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes Introduced by DK Horse (FanDuel Juvenile Introduced by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance), and the Grade 2 Rodeo Drive Stakes (Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf).
Get to know Santa Anita – ‘The Nice Race Place’
When handicapping Santa Anita, there are a number of developments horseplayers ought to take note of with the intention to enhance their profitable share. Listed below are some issues to look at for …
Santa Anita’s important observe can yield some post-position and running-style biases and angles, and that is definitely true primarily based on the statistics from the three most up-to-date meets in fall 2023, the winter meet from Dec. 26, 2023, to April 7, 2024, and the spring/summer season meet from April 19 to June 16.
On the primary observe, the predominant approach for horses to win Santa Anita dash races is with early pace. There have been 267 dust sprints run at Santa Anita within the observe’s three meets over the previous yr, and 160 of these races (60%) have been gained by horses racing on the tempo or inside one size of the early lead. This represents a large benefit over stalkers racing 1-4 lengths off the tempo who gained 85 dust sprints accounting for 32%, and closers coming from 4-plus lengths behind, who gained solely 23 of the 267 dust sprints, accounting for 9%.
When it comes to submit positions in dust sprints, inside submit positions are usually one of the best at Santa Anita and that has been the case the previous yr with horses breaking from posts 1-3 profitable 144 of the 267 dust sprints to account for 54% of the winners. Santa Anita dust sprints have a mean discipline measurement of 6.69 runners per race. The perfect mixture so that you can wager on in Santa Anita sprints is pace horses from the within posts 1-3. These inside pace sorts gained 85 of the 267 dust sprints to account for almost one-third of all winners of these races (32%).
Filth route races at Santa Anita play a lot the identical approach as sprints, however the front-running and inside benefits usually are not as dramatic. Santa Anita ran 158 dust route races (together with one mile) over the previous yr with speedy horses racing on or near the lead profitable 85 of the races to account for wins in 54% of the races. Stalkers gained 36% of the routes and closers gained 10%. You’d suppose that submit positions could be extra necessary in dust routes than they’re in dust sprints, however that was not true in the course of the previous yr. Horses breaking from center posts 4-6 do statistically simply in addition to horses from the within posts in two-turn races.
Santa Anita turf developments
Santa Anita’s turf course is house to a number of the finest grass racing within the nation and it typically performs pretty to all operating types and operating paths, with horses routinely having the ability to win races each on the lead and from off the tempo. Clearly, it’s higher to save lots of as a lot floor as potential and keep inside a workable putting distance of the lead, however horses have a good probability from outdoors post-position attracts, and irrespective of in the event that they go to the lead, press, stalk, or shut from off the tempo.
In 213 turf route races run at Santa Anita the previous yr, pace horses and stalkers had a slight benefit over closers coming from 4-plus lengths off the tempo. The perfect submit positions weren’t inside posts as you would possibly suppose, and out of doors posts weren’t an excessive amount of of a drawback, however one of the best posts have been center posts 4-6, which yielded wins in 88 of Santa Anita’s 213 turf routes to account for wins in 41% of the races.
In turf sprints, Santa Anita has lengthy been a turf dash epicenter due to its distinctive 6 ½-furlong downhill turf course. As of late, Santa Anita additionally conducts turf sprints from a backstretch turf chute that accommodates turf sprints at a wide range of distances. On the downhill course, the primary flip within the race truly is a proper flip, and with many years of stats for these races it’s typically accepted by handicappers that the within posts 1-3 are a drawback in turf sprints down the hill. When it comes to most well-liked operating types, pace horses, stalkers, and closers all gained at almost similar win percentages in a pattern of 44 downhill turf sprints at 6 ½ furlongs over the previous yr.
Flat turf sprints from the backstretch turf chute have change into extra frequent than downhill turf sprints at Santa Anita, and there have been 170 of these races run in the course of the previous yr. Submit positions typically are truthful in these races, however the win percentages slowly lower the farther out you go together with horses from posts 1-3 doing one of the best. Early pace or at the least some tactical pace tends to be way more of a key within the flat turf sprints at Santa Anita than in downhill turf sprints. Horses on or near the tempo gained 67 of the 170 flat turf sprints the previous yr (39%), whereas stalkers 1-4 lengths off the tempo gained 71 instances for 42%. Closers have been at a drawback in the event that they needed to come from greater than 4 lengths off the tempo with 32 wins within the 170 races, accounting for 19%.
Santa Anita fall coach developments
The main coach on the 2023 Santa Anita fall meet was Mark Glatt, who gained the coaching title 12 wins to 11 in a squeaker over runner-up Phil D’Amato. Glatt achieved the coaching title due to a superb 24% win share. D’Amato began much more horses and gained at a a lot decrease 12% clip. If you wish to return to the 2022 fall meet, Peter Miller edged Phil D’Amato 16 wins to fifteen to win the title two years in the past.
The remainder of the 2023 Santa Anita Autumn Meet high 10 was Miller with 10 wins, Richard Mandella, John Sadler, and George Papaprodromou with 9 wins, Doug O’Neill, Peter Eurton, and Michael McCarthy with eight wins, and Bob Baffert with 6 wins from 41 starters for 15%. The perfect bets amongst trainers for handicappers have been Glatt primarily based on his 24%; Mandella, who had a large 35% win share; Eurton, who gained at 28%; and Dan Blacker, who gained with 4 of his 11 starters on the meet for 36%.
On the just lately accomplished Del Mar summer season meet, Baffert gained the title with 23 wins and a 30% win share. D’Amato began almost twice as many horses and had 21 wins however with a way more modest 14% win share. O’Neill completed third with 18 wins (14%), adopted by Sadler in fourth with 17 wins (25%), and Glatt in fifth with 16 wins (16%).
Santa Anita high jockeys
Within the jockey’s room, primarily based on win statistics from final yr’s corresponding autumn Santa Anita meet, the rider to beat for the jockey title can be Juan Hernandez, who gained final yr’s fall meet title with 24 wins (25%). The clear second and third by way of wins have been Umberto Rispoli (20 wins, 22%) and Antonio Fresu (19 wins, 19%).
Hernandez ran away with the just lately concluded Del Mar meet title with 47 wins (28%). The clear second and third by way of wins have been Fresu (36 wins, 17%) and Rispoli (32 wins, 22%). Hector Berrios, Kyle Frey, and Kazushi Kimura have been subsequent. Mike Smith will be related at this Santa Anita fall meet. He had 9 wins from simply 63 mounts for 14% at Del Mar and gained 5 races from 44 mounts eventually fall’s Santa Anita meet.
On the different current Santa Anita meets, Hernandez was the winningest rider with 53 wins (22%) at Santa Anita’s Dec. 26, 2023, to April 9, 2024, meet, seven greater than Fresu’s 46 victories (18%). Hernandez additionally gained a detailed race on the April 19 to June 16 Santa Anita meet with 36 wins (20%), yet another than Fresu at 35 (19%).
Prepare for a tip-tip autumn season of racing and wagering at Santa Anita Park. Good luck and benefit from the meet.
