With six days left within the common season — and 6 video games for many groups — three groups have clinched their respective divisions (the Brewers, Guardians, and Phillies), and two others have clinched playoff berths (the Dodgers and Yankees). That leaves 10 groups combating for seven spots, however even with the playoff discipline not totally set, we thought it might be a enjoyable and worthwhile train to spotlight numerous aspects of the potential October groups by going across the diamond to establish the strongest and weakest at every place in every league.
That is one thing of an offshoot of my annual Substitute Stage Killers sequence, and actually even some confirmed October members have spots that also match the invoice as true lineup sinkholes — suppose first base for the Yankees and Brewers, to select one place from among the many aforementioned groups — however this time with no commerce deadline to assist fill them. For this, I’ll be contemplating full-season efficiency however with a watch to who’s finest or worst now, with accidents and changes in thoughts. In contrast to the Killers sequence, I’ll even be contemplating pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens a part of the deliberations.
For the primary installment of this sequence, I’ll give attention to every place’s finest among the many remaining Nationwide League contenders. On this case that limits the sector to the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Mets, Diamondbacks, and Braves, with the final three of these groups combating for 2 Wild Card spots.
Catcher: William Contreras, Brewers
Over the previous two seasons, simply three catchers have put up five-win seasons, particularly Adley Rutschman in 2023 (5.4 WAR), Cal Raleigh this yr (5.0 WAR), and William Contreras, twice (5.8 WAR final yr, 5.4 WAR this yr). The now-26-year-old backstop has set profession highs in video games (150), video games caught (116), homers (23), common exit velocity (92.8 mph), hard-hit price (49.3%), and extra, all whereas hitting a strong .285/.367/.475; his 133 wRC+ is tops on the remaining Brewers, for the reason that resurgent Christian Yelich (153 wRC+) is finished for the yr on account of again surgical procedure. Contreras’ pitch framing has fallen off sharply relative to final yr, from 14.4 runs above common to 2.2 by FanGraphs’ measures, and from 7 above common to 1 under in Statcast’s methodology. Nonetheless, he’s a lot stable defensively whereas offering distinctive offense for the place.
First Base: Bryce Harper, Phillies
Freddie Freeman’s consistency helped make him the sport’s prime first basemen in recent times, however he’s had a barely off season with the bat (no .300 batting common or .500 slugging share), and missed time on account of a damaged finger and his son’s scary bout of Guillian-Barré syndrome. Bryce Harper, who performed simply 225 video games in 2022–23 whereas coping with a partial UCL tear, Tommy John surgical procedure, and a mid-season transfer to first, lastly bought a comparatively full and regular marketing campaign in. Regardless of a 30-game house run drought from August 10 by September 13 (a span throughout which he nonetheless hit .324/.400/.460), he’s had a usually sturdy efficiency on the plate, batting .285/.372/.525 (145 wRC+) with 29 homers and 5.1 WAR, second amongst all first basemen behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Regardless of having performed simply 303.1 innings at first base previous to this season, he’s fared properly by the metrics (5 FRV, 3 DRS, 0.8 UZR) as properly.
Second Base: Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks
Across the time each Michael Baumann and Dan Szymborski touted Ketel Marte as being worthy of consideration within the NL MVP race in August, the 30-year-old switch-hitter aggravated a left ankle sprain that he initially suffered on August 10. He ended up lacking 19 video games, besides, he’s virtually lapped the sector, performance-wise; his 6.1 WAR will not be solely tops amongst all second basemen, it’s 2.3 wins forward of the second-ranked Jose Altuve, and three.6 forward of the second-ranked second basemen from amongst playoff-bound NL groups, the Mets’ Jose Iglesias (OMG). Marte has hit .295/.373/.565 whereas setting profession highs in homers (35) and wRC+ (152). He’ll received’t carry house the {hardware}, however he’ll be on MVP ballots for positive.
Shortstop: Francisco Lindor, Mets
Whereas Shohei Ohtani grabbed the highlight along with his pursuit and singularly spectacular seize of the 50-homer and 50-steal milestones, the again damage that has restricted Francisco Lindor to a single inning since September 13 has most likely determined this yr’s NL MVP race as soon as and for all. It’s solely a slight stretch to say that Lindor bought it from carrying the Mets, as 14 of his 31 homers both tied the sport or gave his staff the lead, together with six from August 17 by September 11. He’s hit .297/.370/.551 (158 wRC+) with 22 homers for the reason that begin of June, when the Mets have been 11 video games underneath .500, and .271/.342/.494 (135 wRC+) with 31 homers, 27 steals, and seven.4 WAR total. Past the sluggish begin, it’s been a stellar marketing campaign, an absolute pleasure to observe.
Third Base: Eugenio Suárez, Diamondbacks
For the primary 4 entries above, my selections mirror the NL WAR leaderboards as utilized to the winnowed discipline. Right here, whereas the Phillies’ Alec Bohm — who has put collectively the perfect season of his five-year profession — has a slight edge on Eugenio Suárez (3.9 to three.7), I’m choosing the latter primarily based on the arc of his season and his longer monitor report at this stage of efficiency. As I wrote final week, Suárez struggled from March by June (.196/.279/.312, 67 wRC+), however since July 1, he’s been on a tear, batting .315/.361/.630 with 23 homers; his 166 wRC+ within the latter span is the Tenth-best within the majors. The largest motive for the turnaround seems to be Suárez taking the Diamondbacks’ recommendation to incorporate the Trajekt Arc — a brand new robotic hitting machine that marries video of a pitcher’s supply at recreation pace with an correct approximation of his choices, launch level, and tempo — into his pregame routine. He’s carried out dramatically higher in opposition to each pitch sort since then, making him one of many recreation’s most harmful hitters of late.
Left Area: Jackson Chourio, Brewers
Jurickson Profar has bounced again from a dreadful 2023 marketing campaign to place collectively the type of yr expertise evaluators envisioned when he was anointed the sport’s no. 1 prospect again in 2013 — it’s simply that no person thought it might take till he was 31. His 4.5 WAR and 143 wRC+ are each higher than Jackson Chourio’s 3.8 WAR and 119 wRC+ (.273/.328/.469), however the latter, a 20-year-old rookie who himself was fifth on our preseason High 100 Prospects checklist this spring, has damaged out after a tough begin. Chourio hit simply .210/.254/.327 (61 wRC+) by Might, however has batted .303/.362/.536 (145 wRC+) with 16 of his 21 homers and 14 of his 21 steals since June 1. He’s simply the third 20-year-old ever to have a 20-homer, 20-steal season, after Vada Pinson (1959) and Mike Trout (2012), and he’s performed excellent protection (12 DRS, 8.6 UZR, 6 FRV) on the two corners as properly, with extra innings in left discipline (695.2) than proper (466.1).
Heart Area: Jackson Merrill, Padres
One other rookie, one other Jackson. Neck-deep in shortstops however ankle-deep in outfielders, the Padres determined to proceed experimenting with their 2021 first-round choose within the outfield, having begun to take action close to the top of final season, with Jackson Merrill recognizing in left discipline at Double-A San Antonio. Regardless of having performed simply 46 video games above Excessive-A, he so impressed the staff this spring, first in left after which in heart, that he skipped Triple-A totally and has emerged as one of many Padres’ prime gamers. The now-21-year-old has hit .292/.326/.503 (131 wRC+) with 24 homers, 16 steals, and eight FRV (additionally 5 UZR and -1 DRS); his 5.1 WAR leads the staff and is tied with Harper for seventh within the NL. Of these 24 homers, 9 have both put the Padres into the lead or tied the sport, six of them within the seventh inning or later, together with two walk-offs.
Proper Area: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
After splitting his time between proper discipline, second base, and shortstop in an MVP-worthy marketing campaign final yr, Mookie Betts spent the primary two and a half months of this season at brief, a scenario necessitated by Gavin Lux’s sluggish return from the torn ACL that led to final yr’s unique shuffle. After lacking eight weeks on account of a fractured left hand, he returned to his outdated area in proper discipline and regarded proper at house. General, he’s hit .295/.380/.505 (147 wRC+) with 19 homers, 16 steals, and 4.6 WAR in simply 110 video games (a 6.8-WAR tempo). Certain, he’s performed simply 37 video games in proper in 2024, however heading into October, he’s clearly the man you’d need on the market.
Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
Unable to pitch this season after present process a UCL restore final October, Ohtani determined to develop his recreation in one other path and wound up changing into the primary participant ever to pair 50 homers and 50 steals. He has a league-leading 53 of the previous plus 55 of the latter, and reached each plateaus within the aforementioned three-homer, two-steal, six-hit tour de drive. Even with out an inning within the discipline, his 8.3 WAR leads the NL, as do his .640 SLG and 177 wRC+. Not solely is he probably headed in the direction of his second third MVP award, he lastly will get to showcase his spectacular skills within the postseason for the primary time.
Beginning Rotation: Phillies
Over the course of the total season, the Braves and Phillies have had the NL’s prime two rotations, with the previous proudly owning a slight edge in ERA (3.66 to three.72), a extra substantial edge in FIP (3.49 to three.87), and a modest edge in WAR (16.4 to fifteen.8). Nevertheless, these numbers are distorted by the Phillies giving 15 begins to Taijuan Walker, who has posted a 7.18 ERA and 6.96 FIP however who clearly received’t be taking the ball in October. The entrance 4 of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez is in fairly good condition heading into the playoffs, even with Nola struggling to maintain the ball within the park currently.
In contrast, the Braves just lately misplaced Reynaldo López to a bout of shoulder irritation, his second journey to the injured checklist in as many months; he missed three weeks in late July and August on account of a bout of forearm tightness. What’s extra, Chris Sale’s common fastball velocity fell 1.7 mph from August (95.4) to September (93.7), a notable concern on condition that he’s already thrown extra innings this yr (177.2) than in any season since 2017 — a lot in order that he’ll solely begin as soon as this week, on further relaxation, as an alternative of twice on regular relaxation even with a playoff berth hanging within the stability. The staff’s probably playoff rotation of Sale, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach — whose 154.2 innings within the minors and majors is 89.2 greater than final yr — continues to be an excellent one if everybody’s wholesome, but when I’m splitting hairs, these issues bump them down a notch.
Bullpen: Brewers
This was a tricky name, as a result of the form of a bullpen evolves over the course of an extended season, notably because of deadline strikes. The Brewers’ bullpen owns the majors’ second-lowest ERA (3.20) and eighth-lowest FIP (3.83) total, and it’s been even higher within the second half (2.93 ERA, 3.33 FIP). Nearer Devin Williams, who didn’t make his season debut till July 28 on account of stress fractures in his again, has posted a 1.37 ERA, 1.89 FIP, and 46.3% strikeout price in 19.2 innings since returning, although he’s handled shoulder soreness alongside the way in which. Setup males Trevor Megill and Jared Koenig have been much less efficient of late than over the course of the season — which provides me pause on this context — however the reverse is true for Aaron Ashby and Joel Payamps, Milwaukee’s different higher-leverage guys.
The opposite staff I gave sturdy consideration right here to was the Padres, who’ve been equally sturdy within the second half (2.87 ERA, 3.00 FIP) thanks largely to the deadline pickups of Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, and Bryan Hoeing, who collectively have mixed for a 1.43 ERA and 28.6% strikeout price in 69.2 innings post-trade, with middlemen Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon pitching properly, too. The one motive I didn’t put the Padres first right here is the continued struggles of nearer Robert Suarez, who has yielded a 5.79 ERA and 4.61 FIP since August 8 whereas permitting runs in eight of his 19 appearances and blowing three saves. The left-handed Scott, who has notched 18 saves with the Marlins and 4 with the Padres, does supply an alternate, however my issues about Suarez are sufficient to push the needle in the direction of Milwaukee.
Protection: Brewers
This one wasn’t tremendously shut. Milwaukee ranks third within the majors in DRS (66 runs), fifth in FRV (26), and sixth in UZR (19.1), with the Diamondbacks the one NL contender who surpasses them in any of these classes (26 UZR). Shortstop Willy Adames‘ defensive metrics are weak, however second baseman Brice Turang, third basemen Joey Ortiz, and proper fielder Sal Frelick every lead the majors in at the least one metric, and their different outfielders (Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, and Blake Perkins) are sturdy as properly.
