Cody Bellinger has one of many extra vital opt-out choices of the offseason. The Cubs middle fielder/first baseman must resolve whether or not to bypass the remaining two years and $50M on the three-year, $80M contract he signed late final winter. If he foregoes this 12 months’s opt-out, he’d have one other out clause in the course of the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20M left on the deal).
Final weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA As we speak wrote that Bellinger was “totally anticipated” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t appear to be set in stone, nonetheless. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported on Friday that Bellinger has but to resolve whether or not he’ll check the market.
Bellinger is wrapping up a stable if barely disappointing 12 months. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 residence runs over 545 plate appearances. He has primarily maintained the career-best pure contact capability that he confirmed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his journeys this 12 months, marginally greater than the 15.6% strikeout fee he managed throughout his first season on the North Aspect.
The downturn has been in his energy output. Bellinger had eight extra residence runs and 13 further extra-base hits a 12 months in the past. He has one other week so as to add to this season’s totals however isn’t going to make up that a lot floor. His slugging proportion is down greater than .090 factors from final 12 months’s glorious .525 mark. The sustainability of final 12 months’s energy manufacturing was at all times the largest query. Bellinger bought to his spectacular 2023 output regardless of a below-average 31.4% onerous contact fee and 87.9 MPH common exit velocity. This 12 months’s batted ball metrics are equally middling and the outcomes have certainly regressed.
There’s nonetheless nonetheless loads to love within the profile. Bellinger has confirmed to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s one other season faraway from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him earlier than his ultimate arbitration 12 months. It’s protected to say that his 47-homer MVP kind isn’t coming again, however Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s nonetheless able to enjoying middle subject, though the Cubs have used him more and more in proper subject and at first base.
Bellinger has graded as a median defender in a bit of greater than 400 middle subject innings. He has posted related marks in additional than 350 innings in proper. The Cubs’ greatest outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in middle. One other crew might give Bellinger extra constant reps up the center for a minimum of a season or two.
The 2-time All-Star stays one of many youthful doable free brokers within the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s greater than a 12 months youthful than Harrison Bader, who’d most likely be the highest middle fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s practically a 12 months youthful than Anthony Santander and about the identical age as Tyler O’Neill. Whereas there’s a good quantity of nook outfield expertise — headlined, after all, by Juan Soto— the middle subject class shouldn’t be robust. Bellinger declined a qualifying provide final winter and is not eligible to obtain one, so there’d be no draft choose forfeiture this time round.
That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and respectable all-around manufacturing, he’d have a good argument for a four- and even five-year deal. If he merely wished to maximise the assure, he shouldn’t have a problem beating the $50M remaining on his present contract. That’d require taking a pay lower subsequent season although. Bellinger wouldn’t match subsequent 12 months’s $27.5M wage on an annual foundation over 4 or 5 years.
If Bellinger and his camp on the Boras Company anticipate his energy to rebound, bypassing the opt-out can be the possible choice. He’d have one other probability to retest the market upfront of his age-30 marketing campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago could require enjoying proper subject for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, although, probably elevating questions amongst different groups about his long-term viability in middle subject.
From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would most likely be the higher final result. That’d allow them to play Seiya Suzuki extra continuously in proper subject as a substitute of limiting him to designated hitter — the place he’d have to play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s robust 12 months lessens the necessity to have Bellinger round as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, within the bullpen and behind the rotation.
