Cody Bellinger has one of many extra vital opt-out selections of the offseason. The Cubs heart fielder/first baseman must determine whether or not to bypass the remaining two years and $50MM on the three-year, $80MM contract he signed late final winter. If he foregoes this 12 months’s opt-out, he’d have one other out clause throughout the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20MM left on the deal).
Final weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA As we speak wrote that Bellinger was “totally anticipated” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t appear to be set in stone, nevertheless. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported this night that Bellinger has but to determine whether or not he’ll take a look at the market.
Bellinger is wrapping up a stable if barely disappointing 12 months. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 house runs over 545 plate appearances. He has primarily maintained the career-best pure contact skill that he confirmed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his journeys this 12 months, marginally larger than the 15.6% strikeout price he managed throughout his first season on the North Facet.
The downturn has been in his energy output. Bellinger had eight extra house runs and 13 further extra-base hits a 12 months in the past. He has one other week so as to add to this season’s totals however isn’t going to make up that a lot floor. His slugging share is down greater than .090 factors from final 12 months’s glorious .525 mark. The sustainability of final 12 months’s energy manufacturing was all the time the most important query. Bellinger acquired to his spectacular 2023 output regardless of a below-average 31.4% arduous contact price and 87.9 MPH common exit velocity. This 12 months’s batted ball metrics are equally middling and the outcomes have certainly regressed.
There’s however nonetheless loads to love within the profile. Bellinger has confirmed to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s one other season faraway from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him earlier than his ultimate arbitration 12 months. It’s secure to say that his 47-homer MVP kind isn’t coming again, however Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s nonetheless able to taking part in heart area, though the Cubs have used him more and more in proper area and at first base.
Bellinger has graded as a median defender in slightly greater than 400 heart area innings. He has posted comparable marks in additional than 350 innings in proper. The Cubs’ greatest outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in heart. One other staff might give Bellinger extra constant reps up the center for not less than a season or two.
The 2-time All-Star stays one of many youthful attainable free brokers within the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s greater than a 12 months youthful than Harrison Bader, who’d in all probability be the highest heart fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s almost a 12 months youthful than Anthony Santander and about the identical age as Tyler O’Neill. Whereas there’s a good quantity of nook outfield expertise — headlined, after all, by Juan Soto — the middle area class is just not sturdy. Bellinger declined a qualifying supply final winter and is now not eligible to obtain one, so there’d be no draft choose forfeiture this time round.
That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and respectable all-around manufacturing, he’d have a good argument for a four- and even five-year deal. If he merely wished to maximise the assure, he shouldn’t have a difficulty beating the $50MM remaining on his present contract. That’d require taking a paycut subsequent season although. Bellinger wouldn’t match subsequent 12 months’s $27.5MM wage on an annual foundation over 4 or 5 years.
If Bellinger and his camp on the Boras Company anticipate his energy to rebound, bypassing the opt-out could be the probably resolution. He’d have one other probability to retest the market prematurely of his age-30 marketing campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago might require taking part in proper area for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, although, doubtlessly elevating questions amongst different groups about his long-term viability in heart area.
From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would in all probability be the higher consequence. That’d allow them to play Seiya Suzuki extra ceaselessly in proper area as a substitute of limiting him to designated hitter — the place he’d have to play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s sturdy 12 months lessens the necessity to have Bellinger round as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, within the bullpen and in the back of the rotation.
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