NFL Week 3 Picks – Upset Picks, Survivor, Futures, and Extra

This week, our merry band of Betting Life specialists — Matthew Freedman, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich — present some love for the Vikings, goal a pair upsets, and deep dive into the Saints of their NFL Week 3 picks.

Pull up a chair, pour your self a pumpkin-spiced drink, and saddle as much as our skilled roundtable …

Our Favourite NFL Week 3 Decide

• What’s your favourite wager for Week 3?

Matthew Freedman: Eagles +3 at Saints (-118). Final Thursday, the lookahead line for this sport was Eagles -3, and it was even -3.5 at some books. Per week-over-week adjustment from -3 to +3 — with out a QB harm or catastrophic cluster harm — is just too a lot, particularly for HC Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr. For his profession, Allen as a favourite is 9-16-1 ATS; Carr, 22-37-2 ATS.

Matt LaMarca: Vikings ML (+120). I’m all aboard the Vikings bandwagon. With Kevin O’Connell manning the offense and Brian Flores dealing with the protection, that is arguably the best-coached staff in soccer. No staff has seen an even bigger improve in my private energy scores. They managed to beat the 49ers in Minnesota final week, and if they will try this, there’s no purpose they will’t beat the Texans, too. Regulate the harm report, although. The early experiences on Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are promising. In the event that they’re each within the lineup, I count on the Vikings to take house the W.

Geoff Ulrich: Colts -1.0 (-110) vs Bears. Caleb Williams has zero TD passes and two INTs by way of two video games. He’s additionally averaged simply 4.04 yards per try by way of two video games, but has accomplished simply 58% of his passes. The Bears are extraordinarily fortunate to be 1-1 proper now, and the Colts’ go rush (which had 4 sacks in Week 1) is more likely to trigger an O-Line that allowed a number of sacks final week major problem.

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Finest NFL Upset Decide in Week 3

• Who’s your favourite underdog in Week 3?

Freedman: Packers +3 at Titans (-115). With Matt LaFleur, the Packers have a transparent edge in opposition to Brian Callahan, who’s a first-time NFL playcaller along with being a rookie coach. And in evaluating QBs Malik Willis and Will Levis, I don’t suppose the Titans have that massive of an edge. Willis regarded good final week in his first begin (10.1 AY/A, 6-41-0 dashing) with a powerful supporting solid, whereas Levis has proven a propensity by way of two weeks to provide video games away (5 turnovers, two all-time meme-level performs).

LaMarca: I actually like the thought of grabbing the Rams +7.5 at house vs. the 49ers. The Rams are coping with accidents to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, however the 49ers aren’t a beacon of well being, both. Christian McCaffrey is on IR, whereas Deebo Samuel is predicted to overlook a number of weeks. With out his high two playmakers, it stays to be seen if Brock Purdy can produce at an elite degree. The Rams are additionally the extra determined staff after beginning 0-2. In actual fact, they’re 0-2 each straight up and in opposition to the unfold, which has traditionally created betting worth in Week 3. Groups that match that pattern have gone 59-40-1 ATS since 2005, so I just like the Rams to cowl on this spot.

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Ulrich: Panthers +5.5 (-110) at Raiders. I wager this proper when the change to Dalton was introduced. The Panthers not solely get out of the strain cooker of a house sport this week after beginning 0-2, however with Bryce Younger benched and the Crimson Rocket (4-0 vs the Raiders lifetime) inserted they’ll be free to simply “play ball” for the primary time this yr. The Raiders are in a basic letdown spot after triumphing as a giant canine and have one of many worst rush defenses within the league, permitting 6.1 ypc to date.

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New Orleans Saints odds, traces, and futures

• In our weekly Fantasy Life NFL Participant Projections, Freedman has Derek Carr throwing for 235 yards and a pair of TDs. Our NFL sport mannequin says the Eagles at +120 is a major edge (we see it as extra even cash). Can we imagine within the Saints? If we requested you to place a wager of any form on the Saints proper now — future, Week 3, no matter — what would it not be?

Freedman: I need to hate cash, as a result of this will probably be my third week in a row betting in opposition to the Saints on the unfold. Because the preseason, I’ve upgraded no staff greater than the Saints in my energy scores — however I nonetheless have them a half level behind the Falcons and Buccaneers. If I needed to take a long-term place on the Saints a technique or one other, I’d most likely be fading them with a wager to overlook the playoffs (+165, BetMGM).

LaMarca: I hate to be that man, however there’s extra upside in promoting the Saints than shopping for them at this level. The general public loves to overreact to small samples, and the Saints have but to take care of any adversity. What occurs when this staff doesn’t soar out to an enormous first-half lead?

I’m additionally grabbing the Saints at +165 to overlook the postseason. That wager was -210 earlier than the beginning of the yr, so it has shifted tremendously after simply two wins — considered one of which was in opposition to the Panthers, who appear to be one of many worst groups in historical past. We have now sufficient of a monitor report on Derek Carr to know he’s not going to play like an MVP ceaselessly.

Ulrich: I get why everyone seems to be ready for the opposite shoe to drop with the Saints, however I’m not so positive that is the week. The Eagles have been one of many worst defenses within the league, rating thirty first in EPA in opposition to the run; they now face a Saints rush assault that’s first in rush success charge. I count on a higher-scoring sport, shut contest, however as a lot because it pains me to say it, I belief Derek Carr extra to shut out a sport proper now than I do the Eagles protection. There’ll come a time to fade this staff, however for Week 3 I already took the Saints at -1.0 and would play them as much as -2.5.

Moreover, in the event you’re searching for a Saints participant to be bullish on, our utilization man Dwain McFarland loves Chris Olave’s possibilities of breaking out in a sport atmosphere just like the one we should always get this week.

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Speedy Hearth Betting Questions

• Reply the next questions in precisely 5 phrases:

        Inform me concerning the 49ers the subsequent few weeks

Freedman: Brandon Aiyuk earns his cash.

LaMarca: Promote now. Purchase later. Revenue.

Ulrich: Brock Purdy steps up massive.

        Are you eyeing any longshot bets this week?

Freedman: Not likely. Not my type.

LaMarca: Vikings/Dolphins/Cardinals ML parlay (+1200).

Ulrich: Chuba Hubbard SGP: 100+y/TD.

        What’s going to Andy Dalton do for the Panthers?

Freedman: Mire them in unproductive mediocrity.

LaMarca: Elevate from abysmal to unhealthy.

Ulrich: Make the Panthers look respectable.

        How are your Survivor swimming pools trying?

Freedman: Have by no means felt so alive.

LaMarca: Nonetheless alive. Leaning towards Bucs.

Ulrich: If dropping within the first two weeks of a Survivor pool is cool, think about me Miles Davis (Ed. be aware: We allowed Geoff to go over 5 phrases for the sake of the joke)

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