We attempt to unfold issues out right here at FanGraphs Dot Com, so it’s uncommon for us to have articles about the identical participant on consecutive days. However yesterday, we ran a narrative by Davy Andrews on Victor Robles, who’s been one of many uncommon brilliant spots for the Seattle Mariners this season. Robles was launched by the Washington Nationals in early June — which is itself a fairly darkish omen — however in 68 video games with Seattle, he’s carried out at a famous person stage, and… you recognize what, simply go learn Davy’s piece.
One thing this unexpectedly constructive might be not going to final endlessly. Even when Robles has rediscovered himself after years of hitting like a pitcher, I’d take the beneath on his OBP staying within the .400s for the long run. Which is the inherent irony of a narrative like that: By the point a scorching streak is price writing about, it’s often nearer to the tip than the start. However even by these requirements, Davy obtained a extremely horrible break. On Tuesday night time, Robles pulled off the baseball equal of flying his hold glider right into a set of high-tension wires. He obtained lifted within the third inning because of a hand damage, however not earlier than he made one of many extra baffling baserunning gaffes I can bear in mind.
I’m not right here particularly to dump on Robles, who in spite of everything was 25-for-25 in stolen base makes an attempt with Seattle to that time. Captain Bartholomew Roberts was the final Mariner to steal so steadily and so efficiently.
The context for this clip is that the Mariners had been down 2-0 within the high of the primary inning, with the bases loaded, two outs, and a 3-0 rely to Justin Turner.
So, I’ll say one thing in Robles’ protection. I get what he was considering. In the mean time he broke for house, he was on an all-timer of a basestealing heater, he had an enormous secondary lead, and no one was him. Least of all of the pitcher, Luis Gil, who was bent over together with his again to 3rd base, futzing with the rosin bag.
It’s fairly frequent for soccer coaches to depart a standing order for a faux punt. Reasonably than choose a second based mostly on recreation scenario, the coach will inform his particular groups captain to audible to a faux anytime he sees the opposition lined up in a sure method. Having designed the faux to make the most of a numerical benefit on one aspect of the formation or the opposite, the coach trusts his gamers to execute for a probable first down.
And that’s sort of what occurred right here. Robles didn’t break for house as a result of he’s a lunatic or an fool, he took off as a result of he acknowledged that the Yankees had given him an enormous opening. Even after Gil perked up instantly and made an ideal throw, it was nonetheless a bang-bang play on the plate.
And let’s not act just like the Mariners’ couldn’t have used a spark. They may not be lifeless — they had been nonetheless above 10% playoff odds getting into play Tuesday — however they’ve actually felt lifeless for a scorching minute. Their beforehand unhittable breakout pitcher, Bryan Woo, had simply been tagged for 2 runs within the high of the primary, and we will debate the idea of momentum all night time, however in a second like that, absolutely Robles would’ve recognized that his crew might use a morale enhance. Higher baserunners than Robles have gone on tilt and tried to power one thing when their crew is dropping and has struggled to attain runs.
With that mentioned, Turner has a profession .362 OBP, and Gil had already hit Robles and walked two different batters within the inning. Not one of the first three pitches of the plate look was shut. Odds are, Robles was coming house on the subsequent pitch anyway, both on a stroll or by advantage of Turner hitting a get-me-over fastball into the hole. And with two outs, the draw back was taking the bat out of the fingers of an excellent hitter in a good rely, and wiping a bases-loaded scenario off the board. Which turned out to be fairly unhelpful for a crew that, as soon as once more, is twenty fourth within the majors in runs.
The totality of it — the toughest base to steal, the truth that failure erased probably the most advantageous potential mixture of rely and baserunners — is simply staggering. Clearly it’s not probably the most damaging stolen base try in historical past, as a result of whereas the Mariners are preventing for his or her playoff lives (or no less than they had been), that is nonetheless the primary inning of a daily season recreation. As soon as upon a time, Babe Ruth obtained caught stealing to finish Sport 7 of the World Collection with a .300 hitter on the plate. By that normal, what Robles did is small potatoes.
So I went to Baseball Savant and appeared for precedent: Three-ball rely, two outs, runner caught stealing to finish the inning. Earlier than Robles, there had been 59 different cases since 2008, which is way back to the database goes, and just one different this 12 months. (In a type of glitch-in-the-Matrix coincidences, the final two instances this occurred earlier than Tuesday, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was on the plate.)
I’m a bit of shocked that it doesn’t occur extra. It’s frequent for the runner to be put in movement with three balls and two outs — no matter whether or not there are two strikes — as a result of there’s no hazard of the runner being doubled off on a ball within the air. And, on this scenario, we solely get a runner thrown out 3 1/2 instances a 12 months, throughout the complete league?
Oh nicely. Of the 59 failed stolen base makes an attempt, 51 had been both an tried steal of second or an tried steal of third with a runner on first — in different phrases, the baserunners tried to get a bounce on a stroll however the batter unexpectedly obtained a strike. In 18 of these cases, the hitter even swung and missed on the pitch, making the play, primarily, a blown hit-and-run.
Of the remaining performs, my favourite is that this 2018 try by Javier Báez to steal third base. By that time, the hitter, Ben Zobrist, was close to the tip of his profession, however he was nonetheless fairly useful with the bat in his fingers. Plus, the rely was 3-0.
Extra to the purpose, Báez obtained as dangerous a bounce as you’ll see, and ended up getting thrown out by — and I believe Statcast will again me up on this — about one million miles. What Robles did was an enormous danger, however I believe this was a worse baserunning choice.
There’s one, and just one, occasion of a runner getting caught stealing house with three balls and two outs in an inning: On June 26, 2011, Matt Treanor swung via a 3-0 pitch with Jeff Francoeur on first and Alex Gordon on third, with the Royals up 4-1 on the Cubs within the backside of the third inning. I can’t discover video of the incident, and the Related Press recap of the sport doesn’t point out it, however based mostly on the field rating, it appears to be like like this was a failed double steal. Catcher Geovany Soto threw to shortstop Starlin Castro, who obtained the ball again house in time to get Gordon on the plate. Irrespective of, Kansas Metropolis gained 6-3, and no one considered both of those groups once more for one more three years.
There are greater than 100 different cases of runners getting caught stealing house with two outs within the pitch monitoring period, regardless of rely, however solely three with the bases loaded. The latest occurred in 2015, so there’s no video on Baseball Savant. Fortunately, I discovered written descriptions of all three, so let’s see how these incidents had been acquired on the time.
On April 14, 2012, Brett Lawrie bolted for house with the bases loaded and José Bautista on the plate. And if you happen to wanted any data aside from “Brett Lawrie” to know whether or not that was considered as a clever alternative, supervisor John Farrell referred to as it a “main baserunning mistake.” Bautista, not wanting to hold his 22-year-old teammate out to dry, referred to as Lawrie “gutsy” and speculated that he would’ve been protected with a greater slide.
On August 24, 2012, Josh Donaldson obtained thrown out making an attempt to steal house with the bases loaded and two outs. Although the A’s went on to win that recreation, Joe Stiglich’s recap within the San Jose Mercury Information the subsequent morning began as follows: “ A doozy of a baserunning blunder by Josh Donaldson threatened to sink the A’s on Friday…”
The third failed steal of house got here on April 22, 2015, when Torii Hunter thought he noticed Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie go to the windup and took off. Hunter, who was 39 happening 40 by this level, obtained thrown out. However identical to the standing faux punt name, he’d talked the matter over with supervisor Paul Molitor beforehand and acquired Molitor’s blessing. At that time, it’s not a rash choice by a participant appearing alone, it’s a premeditated gamble by a savvy veteran, with the approval of the supervisor. Additionally, the Twins gained the sport, and as a lot as we nerds love to speak about course of, this can be a results-based enterprise.
Which is principally what Mariners supervisor Dan Wilson mentioned after the sport: “That’s a scenario the place you’ve obtained to know you’re going to make it.”
As a result of if you happen to don’t, it’s going to appear like one of many worst baserunning selections of the previous 20 years.
