Heading into the 2024 season, the primary query surrounding Paul Goldschmidt was one in all whether or not the Cardinals would be capable to get an extension accomplished. Curiosity in a brand new contract for Goldschmidt was reported way back to December, however president of baseball operations John Mozeliak mentioned in January that extension talks could possibly be tabled till early within the season. On the time, Goldschmidt was contemporary off a .268/.363/.447 batting line in 154 video games. That didn’t come near his 2022 NL MVP season (.317/.404/.578, 35 homers) — but it surely was nonetheless properly north of the league common and made Goldschmidt one of many extra productive first basemen within the recreation.
Quick ahead a couple of months, and the narrative has modified dramatically. Goldschmidt received out to the worst begin of his profession and appeared wholly unable to recuperate. He posted below-average offensive numbers in April, Might and June, slashing a .225/.294/.361 in 349 plate appearances over that stretch. By measure of wRC+, the perennially wonderful Goldschmidt had been 15% worse than a median hitter on the plate.
Even when one regarded on the dip from his 2022 manufacturing to his 2023 output because the potential starting of a decline, a drop-off of this magnitude was nonetheless a real shock. Goldschmidt hadn’t merely had some poor luck on balls in play; his strikeout fee spiked to a career-worst 28.7%. His 8.3% stroll fee was nowhere close to his profession mark. Goldschmidt was nonetheless hitting the ball laborious, however his contact was much less frequent and far of that arduous contact was coming within the type of laborious grounders fairly than well-struck liners and flies. Goldschmidt’s 43% ground-ball fee within the season’s first three months was his highest since 2017.
Since that time, issues have begun to show round. Goldschmidt had a modestly productive displaying in July (107 wRC+) and has seen his bat actually take off from August onward. He’s hitting .275/.315/.483 because the calendar flipped to July — together with a .286/.338/.493 slash since Aug. 1. Once more, this isn’t a easy change in fortune on balls in play. Goldschmidt’s 28% strikeout fee from the season’s first three months is all the way down to 23.5% since July 1 — and simply 21% since Aug. 1.
Regardless of that substantial dip in strikeouts, Goldschmidt hasn’t essentially develop into extra selective on the plate. He’s nonetheless not strolling practically as usually as he used to — 5.5% since July 1 — neither is he chasing off the plate any lower than he did within the season’s first three months. What he has accomplished, nonetheless, is develop into far more aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone. Goldschmidt’s sometimes affected person strategy led him to swing at simply 61.4% of pitches within the strike zone from Opening Day by means of the tip of June. Since then, he’s supplied at 68.1% of such pitches. His total swing fee by means of three months was at 46.2%, however he’s as much as 49.4% within the three months since.
Goldschmidt has had 50 plate appearances finish on one pitch this season. He’s hitting .347 and slugging .694 on these pitches. Of these 50, 26 got here within the season’s first three months. About 7.4% of his plate appearances lasted one pitch. Since July 1, practically 10% of his plate appearances have been of the one-pitch selection. It’s not an enormous distinction, but it surely lends credence to the truth that Goldschmidt has been extra aggressive and been higher off for it.
It’s been a story of two seasons for Goldschmidt (pardon the cliche). His first half regarded like that of a participant on the decline — mounting strikeouts, lesser contact, and an across-the-board deterioration in his outcomes. The previous two-plus months, nonetheless, inform one other story. Goldschmidt will not be the MVP-level hitter he was simply two seasons in the past, however he’s been clearly above-average since July, together with an outrageous .394/.429/.636 slash in his previous 70 plate appearances. His walks are down and will not recuperate if he maintains his extra aggressive strategy, however he’s hitting for common and energy alike. If Goldschmidt had flipped his two halves, beginning this sizzling after which fading towards league-average, his down season seemingly wouldn’t have garnered a lot consideration.
Because it stands, league-average is exactly the place Goldschmidt is at. His .246/.303/.414 batting line comes out to a good 100 wRC+. His OPS+ (98) is just 2% worse than common. A mean-hitting first baseman isn’t usually a QO candidate, but when the Cardinals imagine Goldschmidt can maintain his late surge, then there’s good cause to make a proposal. Even when he accepts, a $21.2MM wage for a participant whom they imagine can proceed within the neighborhood of a .275/.315/.483 tempo can be defensible. And if he walks, the Playing cards would in fact be entitled to draft compensation. On the flip aspect, if Goldschmidt have been to simply accept and revert to his first-half type, it’d be a transparent misstep that units the franchise again in 2025 as they give the impression of being to return to contending.
All of it comes all the way down to how a lot the Cardinals imagine in Goldschmidt’s second-half renaissance and the way a lot they’re keen to danger within the title of bolstering their 2025 draft pool. Six months in the past, Goldschmidt would’ve appeared like a no brainer QO recipient. Three months in the past, the choice would’ve appeared like a no brainer — for the alternative cause. Now, the Cardinals will fall someplace within the center. Let’s open this up for a ballot:
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