Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/10/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

171: The Orioles… woof. I haven’t been in a position to make myself be serious about watching this workforce in weeks. Do you assume that there must be managerial/teaching adjustments made to treatment no matter trigger these final 3 months to occur?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, it looks like it’s time for the Orioles to be the AL East workforce with an important report who everybody thinks is horrible

Ben Clemens: Bear in mind the halcyon days of per week and a half in the past when everybody mentioned the Yankees have been a under .500 workforce who wouldn’t sniff the playoffs?

Ben Clemens: these have been enjoyable

Ben Clemens: The O’s are high quality, c’mon

Not AJ Preller: Contracts apart, who would you reasonably have for the following 5 years: JRod, Carroll, or Chourio?

Ben Clemens: I believe I’d take JRod

Ben Clemens: However there aren’t any incorrect solutions, imo

DeeBo: It’s a small pattern, I do know, however is there something from Connor Norby’s present sizzling streak that makes you assume the prospect studies might need undersold him a bit? He’s hit in every single place he’s been and appears like a really strong piece for the M’s going ahead

Ben Clemens: Ehhhhh…. I like Norby, however I don’t assume his current string of success is altering my view a lot

Ben Clemens: he’s placing out a 3rd of the time, and I don’t assume he’s gonna maintain posting a .300 ISO

Ben Clemens: I’m mainly in the identical place the place I used to be earlier than this sizzling streak – intriguing participant, favored the commerce for the Marlins, not prepared to alter my priors

Bob: Which two would you retain for fantasy baseball amongst Elly De La Cruz, Kyle Tucker, Jarren Duran and Paul Skenes?

Ben Clemens: I believe Skenes and Elly? Man, I don’t know

Ben Clemens: good downside to have, depends upon keeper costs and all

Ben Clemens: I’m positively apprehensive about Tucker’s harm for this 12 months, however I believe in the long run it’ll be simply high quality

Oaktown Blues: Hello Ben! On July 8, you wrote about Brent Rooker’s success constructed on not being afraid to rack up the Ks so long as he retains hitting it arduous. Since your article, Rooker has a 194 wRC+ and a 22.6% Ok charge (217 PAs). Do you assume he unlocked one other gear? Or simply an prolonged sizzling streak for a man who was already fairly rattling good?

Ben Clemens: I’m somehwere between these two. I considered writing about Rooker once more however to be trustworthy, I already write concerning the A’s loads 🙂

Ben Clemens: SO I assumed I’d give it a relaxation and perhaps let another person take it

Down by the River Ryan: I’m positive it’s automated and because of the entire indy ball factor, however Kumar Rocker being listed as No Faculty regardless of famously going to Vanderbilt appears to be like odd.

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, positively automated, however I”ll point out it

GA Blood: Nasim Nunez’s season makes me unhappy. I don’t perceive it within the context of the Nationals’ season. All season on the roster, 36 video games performed, 38 plate appearances. 141 wRC+. What was the purpose, actually?

Ben Clemens: I’ve been making an attempt to jot down about this for some time now

Ben Clemens: I can’t fairly discover an angle that works

Ben Clemens: for what number of days he’s been on the roster, he’s mainly simply by no means enjoying

Ben Clemens: That mentioned, I gave it up when the Nats began letting him play the occasional full sport in August

Ben Clemens: He’s now solely a type of attention-grabbing outlier — he has 17 PA previously month, and he solely had 14 in all the first half of the season

Sean: Do you assume Dipoto ought to lose his job if the M’s miss the playoffs with that beginning employees?  He’s carried out an important job constructing the farm, and the pitching employees, however are his roster selections holding the M’s again at this level?

Sodo Mojo: I’m torn concerning the Mariners retaining Dipoto for an additional 12 months.  On one hand I believe he isn’t the perfect GM to steer the groups ahead and there different higher choices who would gladly take the job though possession appears ambivalent about profitable. Then again that very same possession group employed Invoice Bavasi and Jack Zduriencik each of whom have been unmitigated disasters.  What ought to I believe as a Mariners fan?

Ben Clemens: I typed up after which deleted a number of attainable solutions right here

Ben Clemens: I’m actually divided right here

Ben Clemens: I really feel like the principle factor holding the Mariners again is all the organizational construction; possession doesn’t need to spend, and that view permeates downward

Ben Clemens: however letting Dipoto off the hook for placing that view into follow doesn’t really feel fairly proper

Ben Clemens: I believe I’d most likely give him one other 12 months towards my higher judgment, but it surely’s a extremely powerful one

Tom A.: Do outcomes on a 3-2 rely range relying if the rely began 0-2 or 3-2?  I’ve at all times been fascinated by this.  My feeling is that the batter has the relative benefit in each of those instances, however the pitcher in different instances.

Ben Clemens: I’m truly within the strategy of investigating this, or at the least the overall case of this

Ben Clemens: Right here’s a observe I took down at Saber Seminar: “rely not modeled nicely by Markov Chain??? examine”

Ben Clemens: somebody talked about that type of off hand and I’ve been inquisitive about it ever since

laughingstock: Why are stolen bases at all times assigned +0.2 runs of worth within the calculation of WAR, no matter period, state of affairs, and even which base you steal? I’ve by no means understood the reasoning there of not calculating the worth depending on the base-out state and run scoring surroundings, like is finished with the worth of caught stealing

Ben Clemens: it’s an important query that has to do with the best way wOBA is calculated, and I fully don’t perceive it

Ben Clemens: One other factor we talked about at saber seminar

2025: Which of those guys do you assume will be capable to repeat their success subsequent season: Houck, R Lopez, Schwellenbach

Ben Clemens: I believe I is likely to be most in on Lopez, which feels bizarre to say

Ben Clemens: b/c I actually didn’t assume he’d play as a starter

Ben Clemens: I used to be simply approach off on loads of these starter conversions, to be honest

Fernando Ludwick Jr: Is the NL wildcard race probably the most thrilling years?  Can’t bear in mind a race this tight….hope it bodes nicely for baseball typically.

Ben Clemens: I’m having a troublesome time pondering of 1 I personally loved extra since 2020

Ben Clemens: The Giants/Dodgers division race in 2021 was superior however that’s not wild card

Gotham: Are the times of Cashman getting a go over? The Dominguez / Verdugo conundrum apart, if he can’t signal Soto, what’s the top path ahead? Choose and Cole value a ton of cash, the farm system stinks, and outdoors of Wells there have been only a few nice surprises this 12 months…

Ben Clemens: I imply… the Yankees are good! They’ve loads of good gamers, and so they have the perfect report within the AL

Ben Clemens: for what it’s value, our most up-to-date replace has their farm system eleventh in baseball

Ben Clemens: I do love that now Yankees and O’s followers now need to burn all the things to the bottom on the similar time

Ben Clemens: they’re out-disappointing one another

James: Are you aware of any solution to get stats on test swings? My speculation is that umpires are much less more likely to name strikes when a batter checks his swing, even when it’s a strike, however I’ve by no means seen anybody analysis that

Ben Clemens: Sadly no. I’ve been serious about researching this actual query for some time, however the information simply doesn’t exist

Ben Clemens: I’m wondering if bat monitoring goes to make it attainable

Liam: Hey Ben! I’m inquisitive about your technical chops and instruments you utilize – I need to turn into somewhat extra savvy there, and was questioning once you discuss operating your monte carlo sims and different projections, is that carried out in python? r? and did you study primarily by tinkering?

Ben Clemens: Oh positive. That’s all carried out in Python, however R would possibly truthfully be higher

Ben Clemens: I simply began with Python and it really works for my functions

Ben Clemens: I take advantage of that and SQL pretty typically, SQL as a result of we’ve got a FanGraphs database and I would like to question it in clever methods. I discovered first largely by tinkering, however I’ll be completely trustworthy: AI has been a large assist in bettering my abilities lately

Ben Clemens: Should you’re keen to have interaction Gemini (or no matter your most well-liked LLM is) in a dialog about tips on how to code one thing you’re making an attempt to do, and should you principally perceive the logic behind it, you possibly can go far

Ben Clemens: I’ve gotten MUCH higher at doing advanced calculations or simply tough stuff that isn’t apparent at first look by asking an LLM tips on how to do it, discovering the place their directions goes incorrect, and simply iterating and refining

Refugee: is there a premium premium membership that provides us entry to that SQL database?

Ben Clemens: Ha, I don’t assume so, however you would positively create your individual from the information downloads that include membership

Ben Clemens: We don’t actually keep loads of the stuff I’m messing with to the excessive customary of high quality we like for official FG stuff

Esix Snead: I discover myself getting burned out from baseball because of the inundation of metrics and normal laptop optimization.  Really feel like there is no such thing as a “fog of struggle” or mystique as a result of each workforce has similar Trackman and batted ball information.  When each workforce has similar info in a zero-sum sport, it looks like the one variations in groups are how a lot cash possession is keen to spend, and the way near-death your proprietor is as to whether or not they’re keen to eschew future success in favor of a present run.   How do I not really feel jaded by this?

Ben Clemens: That’s positively an actual difficulty dealing with baseball at present

Ben Clemens: i do assume that groups are doing attention-grabbing and good issues round long-term technique, improvement, issues like htat

Ben Clemens: but it surely’s not significantly seen to us as followers, which makes that much less attention-grabbing

Ben Clemens: The rationale I write 5 issues, and why I have a look at whimsical stuff typically, is b/c the quantity of pleasure I get from that hasn’t modified

Ben Clemens: however the quantity of pleasure I get from making an attempt to determine whether or not the Cardinals are utilizing hte incorrect fifth starter based mostly on superior metrics has positively declined previously decade

Oddball Herrera: Should you’re bummed that everybody is utilizing analytics, simply bear in mind the Rockies are nonetheless on the market asking why guys can’t hit good in the event that they’re such good hitters

Ben Clemens: It’s an important query

Insert Witty Title Right here: Ideas on the US Open finals? Sabalenka is wonderful, I like how she goes full throttle on each shot. On the lads’s aspect, what do you concentrate on the aptly named Sinner’s failed check?

Ben Clemens: Love Sabalenka, and I fully agree, her type is admittedly enjoyable. I believe it additionally results in nice matches b/c when she’s off she simply will get boat raced, which retains issues shut

Ben Clemens: I suppose I’m okay with Sinner attending to nonetheless play, it looks like a foolish factor to get suspended over on the concentrations he had. That mentioned, it does really feel like particular remedy, perhaps everybody ought to get the good thing about the doubt like him

Ben Clemens: I like watching him play, although. It’s wild how he will get a lot energy into his pictures, it looks like he’s utilizing each single inch of his physique to take action

New GM: I’m wanting on the free company courses within the subsequent couple years after this one and there’s not a ton of place gamers on the prime of the market after Kyle Tucker, who might or might not even make it to FA, and Vlad who’s place restricted.  May we see spending this offseason inflated as a consequence of that or do most groups not look forward?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, to not give an excessive amount of away, however I’m making an attempt to mannequin for this somewhat bit in my free company predictions this 12 months

Ben Clemens: I believe that groups positively do spend for one winter with the following winter’s fallback choices in thoughts

Ben Clemens: there’s at all times loads of uncertainty, however I believe it’d be good to be barely extra aggressive this winter

Nate: Is there a break up on the web site for when the infield is drawn? I do know there are splits for when there’s a shift on, however curious if drawn-in infield is there someplace as nicely

Ben Clemens: no, however you would perhaps piece one collectively from statcast information about infielder depth

Ben Clemens: I’m positively curious, seems like perhaps one thing for later within the month

Sam: Do you assume there’s an answer to the quantity of groupthink that appears to permeate most MLB entrance places of work (not counting the Rockies) and the way it homogenizes the sport?

Ben Clemens: Not likely? I believe that’s only a aspect impact of the interconnected world we stay in

Ben Clemens: Like, title an business the place this isn’t an issue

Ben Clemens: the world is massively extra linked now than it has ever been, naturally groupthink is on the rise

Insert Witty Title Right here: What books do you may have lined up after the baseball season is over?

Ben Clemens: first on the record is Alien Clay (which I imagine isn’t even out within the US but) for a ebook membership

Ben Clemens: I simply bought my library card hooked as much as my e-reader, which has been a sport changer

Ben Clemens: since then I’ve learn The Fury (good), 9 Lives (meh), Fourth Wing (unhealthy), The Nice Prepare Theft (a basic)

Ben Clemens: happening trip subsequent week, so I’m gonna juice up the e reader much more

Oddball Herrera: Alien Clay based mostly on the title seems like a sequel to Chubby Rain

Okra: The O’s maintain enjoying Emmanual Rivera and Nick Maton over Mayo.  Rivera has been DFA twice this 12 months and Maton 3 times.  I don’t get it.  In the event that they don’t belief Mayo why didn’t they money him in on the deadline?

Ben Clemens: I’m very confused by that conduct too

Ben Clemens: I’m wondering if Holliday’s struggles are one way or the other messing with their confidence in enjoying minor leaguers

James: Is Verlander simply out of types from the accidents, or is he cooked? I don’t see a lot hope for this 12 months however is that this the top for good

Ben Clemens: Clearly I can’t say for sure, however I’ll say this:

Ben Clemens: I believe that the chances that it’s over are fairly excessive, greater than 50%

Ben Clemens: ‘over’ as in he’s by no means a real expertise prime 3 starter once more

Ben Clemens: prime 3 on the workforce, not prime 3 in baseball

Ben Clemens: arduous to foretell when pitchers will lose effectiveness, and perhaps he can simply discover some new adjustment to make it maintain working, however I kinda assume that is what decline appears to be like like

Dan: Do you assume there’s a entrance workplace equal to peak Mike Trout, does almost all the things very nicely; all time nice; the distinction between his workforce being common and a dumpster hearth and we simply don’t know as a result of it’s too arduous to measure or is the expertise degree of the entrance workplace personnel too flat for that comparability?

Ben Clemens: My guess is the second, that there’s simply not that a lot expertise hole

Ben Clemens: That mentioned, the primary is certainly true: we wouldn’t have the instruments to measure this nicely, so I’m unsure of my reply

Saint Lou: Will Ivan Herrera ever get an opportunity to play full time? I don’t perceive the reluctancy to play him extra.

Ben Clemens: I believe that this boils all the way down to the group’s long-running obsession with catcher protection

Ben Clemens: Having Yadi for 20 years or so actually messes together with your head, you already know?

Ben Clemens: That’s the way you get the pitching employees having a bizarre mini-revolt towards excellent catcher Willson Contreras

Ben Clemens: and Pedro Pages getting prolonged run regardless of positively not being an important main league hitter

Ben Clemens: I believe that there’s simply an organizational expectation that the one who catches will probably be an ultra-premium defender who does all the things and in addition is a pitcher whisperer, and that’s been powerful on Herrera, who is just not that, regardless of being an excellent participant

Dan: I bear in mind studying preseason previews within the early 90s and there was at all times at the least one which predicted my workforce can be on the earth collection. Now that I (and the media) perceive statistics higher and what makes profitable baseball is best understood it’s loads tougher to delude myself when my workforce is unhealthy.

Ben Clemens: Yep, completely agree with this

Ben Clemens: a greater understanding of what results in success in baseball positively decreases uncertainty

Zach: I’m curious to listen to about your expertise with how LLMs have affected your job/life. I do know you simply talked about it when it comes to coding, however how typically do you utilize it, are you enthusiastic about future iterations, and so forth.?

Ben Clemens: I primarily use it for work

Ben Clemens: I suppose I like its sorting of cooking/recipe outcomes higher than wanting by way of the depressing right here’s a narrative about my life earlier than the recipe type blogs

Brad: Ben…is it me or does Spencer Horwitz appear like he could possibly be an above common hitter?  I’ve seen him go the opposite approach and in addition drop the bat head and pull the ball.   The place do you see his place sooner or later?

Ben Clemens: I may completely see it

Ben Clemens: I used to be looking for one thing to jot down about for this week and ALMOST landed on Horwitz

Ben Clemens: I would nonetheless earlier than lengthy

Ben Clemens: it doesn’t look pretend, and the minor league numbers look actual

Ben Clemens: I believe that he’s gonna be a positionless wanderer defensively, although

Sanford: Juan Soto is youthful than 16 of the highest 35 rookies (45%) by fWAR this 12 months. That’s all

Dan: Cooking with a LLM is enjoyable as a result of you possibly can’t be 100% sure it didn’t hallucinate the recipe. Nicely perhaps an skilled chef can however not me

Ben Clemens: I believe that’s a part of the enjoyable

Ben Clemens: I strive loads of bizarre combos as it’s

Adam: Is DJ Herz something?

Ben Clemens: I’m making an attempt to reply this actual query for a buddy of mine who’s an enormous Nats fan

Ben Clemens: I believe sure? However I don’t have a superbly reasoned opinion simply but

Adam: Do you may have an inner heuristic for the relative significance of the elements of catcher protection?  I.e. what % is framing vs. blocking vs. throwing out baserunners?

Ben Clemens: HEre’s a technique of it

Ben Clemens: the worst blocker this 12 months, per Statcast, is Shea Langeliers at -6, greatest is six gamers at +3. Nobody else is worse than -3. So 9 run hole. The run sport hole is 12 runs (Will Smith +7, Yasmani Grandal -5). The framing hole is 25 runs (Patrick Bailey +16, Yainer Diaz -9)

Ben Clemens: in order that’s the order, and framing is, roughly talking, value as a lot as the opposite two abilities mixed

Ed Kranepool: 12 workforce pts league, 9 keepers.  Time to drop 1 of my keepers, Michael Harris?

Ben Clemens: I believe Michael Harris is nice. I’d positively not drop him

Ben Clemens: I’m gradual to replace my priors, although

Brett: What’s extra more likely to occur, somebody apart from Ohtani to be in 50/50 membership or somebody apart from Choose hitting greater than 62 HR in your lifetime?

Ben Clemens: I believe 50/50 membership

Ben Clemens: it’s solely been a 12 months since we had a legit contender in Acuna

Insert Witty Title Right here: Naming children are arduous.  I as soon as considered naming it after my favourite baseball participant, but it surely didn’t fairly sound correct.  Should you needed to title your future son after an enormous leaguer, who wouldn’t it be?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume we’ll do that, however Curtis Granderson

Ben Clemens: nice participant, nice man, and I occur to love the title

Adam: Are we on the level the place, push come to shove, the Dodgers would simply make use of bullpen video games within the playoffs reasonably than throw Buehler or Miller on the market?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe they need to make use of bullpen video games with these guys as a part of the plan

Jared: Which of those rookies do you assume could have the perfect profession? Holliday, Chourio, Merrill, or Langford?

Ben Clemens: Gimme Chourio

Ben Clemens: I’d have mentioned Merrill a month in the past, so I’ve these shut

Ben Clemens: I’m down on Holliday

Ben Clemens: so I’d go Chourio Merril (tier hole) Langford (mini tier hole) Holliday

Mark Seaman: Rangers pitching may not suck subsequent season. The offense wasn’t nice this 12 months, do they simply hope the younger guys determine it out?

Ben Clemens: they nonetheless mission nicely, I believe

Ben Clemens: loads of good choices, Carter will hopefully be again and higher

Ben Clemens: hope that Adolis Garcia is a median to barely above common hitter as a substitute of a tire hearth

Ben Clemens: I’ve been donw on the Rangers for some time, although. I believe certainly one of my ‘daring predictions’ for the 12 months was that the Rangers would miss the playoffs and end under .500

Ben Clemens: They’ve been gentle on depth for some time now

Ben Clemens: and when issues don’t hit proper, it’s ugly

ResumeMan: Oakland within the postseason!*

(*Ballers, that’s)

hopeful champion: would you begin Bido tonight towards the astros? even with him pitching in reduction the opposite day?

Ben Clemens: Yeesh, I believe no, however I don’t have a powerful lean both approach

Insert Witty Title Right here: Once I consider Curtis Granderson, all I consider is that business on repeat that saved mentioning his mother and father have been academics.  Additionally I believe I requested this to you years in the past as a result of I bear in mind pondering Curtis Carl Clemens can be a humorous title.

Ben Clemens: I don’t keep in mind that quesiton – however look, I actually like Granderson

DeeBo: What do you assume the temper contained in the White Sox clubhouse is true now? A variety of younger guys making an attempt to show themselves, however among the many veterans it should be fairly depressing

Ben Clemens: oh yeah I believe it’s most likely principally terrible

Ben Clemens: it’s simply NOT enjoyable to lose so typically in something

Guardcore Clevelander: Not a lot as query as an commentary. The Royals have a weak outfield, a powerful rotation, and no bullpen, with their greatest participant being a center infielder. The Guardians have a number of All-Stars who can play the outfield, a struggling rotation, an elite bullpen, and their greatest infielder is at third base. It’s just like the 2015 Royals and 2018 Guardians swapped roles.

Ben Clemens: That is Andrew Miller erasure, however true in a broad sense

Ben Clemens: It’s positively unusual to see the Royals constructed round a meteoric up-the-middle expertise whereas the Guardians go the pitching and protection route, though I don’t assume their outfield all stars will final

Sirras: When do the White Sox subsequent have a .500 season?

Ben Clemens: Uh…. yikes

Ben Clemens: I really feel like they’ve it in them to show it round quickly

Sully: With ~3 weeks left within the season, can I throw any starter in there for Ks and never fear a couple of blow-up hurting my lead in WHIP?  I’m at 1.063 and 2nd place is at 1.125.

Ben Clemens: let’s say you’re in a 1,400 innings max league. Your lead is 84 walks or hits

Ben Clemens: how a lot of a blowup are we anticipating? I’ve to imagine lower than that

Ben Clemens: so I believe you’re good

Visitor: Who do you assume will get disregarded of the NL WC? I do know that you simply wrote an in depth protection of the playoff odds methodology lately, and ARI and SD have very excessive odds; but it surely additionally looks like both workforce may get squeezed out. They don’t have a lot of a lead on NYM and ATL.

Ben Clemens: I believe it’ll be the Mets, although I hope I’m incorrect b/c this has been a extremely enjoyable workforce

Ben Clemens: However truthfully, it looks like a reasonably large tossup to me

Ben Clemens: all these odds are actually shut, and I’m DEFINITELY not assured that I’m good at telling a 60% probability from a 65% probability

Christian: New rule: The possession of the workforce with the worst common season report is compelled to promote on the finish of the 12 months.

Ben Clemens: oh sure, let’s do this

Insert Witty Title Right here: Bizarre hypothetical – would rising the baseball measurement assist scale back the huge velo we’re seeing nowdays? Or is that simply too excessive and perhaps in 2050?

Ben Clemens: I believe it’d simply be too excessive

Ben Clemens: I’d mess with seams and ball composition approach earlier than doing that

Ben Clemens: Okay, on that observe, I’m gonna name it a chat. Stick round for Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs chat later at present, banner Tuesday.