Does a tough second half matter in October? Some World Sequence hopefuls would possibly need to look away

For greater than three months this season, the Phillies and Guardians owned the 2 greatest information within the sport. Then baseball occurred.

On July 1, they had been each on 100-win paces. Now, as that standings chart illustrates so vividly, they’ve spent the previous two months enjoying extra like an 80-win crew than a 100-win crew. Humorous how that occurs. The query is, what does it imply for his or her win-the-World-Sequence aspirations?

They’re not the primary groups in historical past to find how lengthy a baseball season actually is. However that isn’t the story right here.

The story is: A tough second half, for groups like this, typically means greater than you’d in all probability guess it means. I’ve achieved the maths so that you don’t must.

The wild-card period is 30 seasons previous now. You’d suppose the wild-card security internet would have given many groups the rope to slog via a .500-ish second half — or worse — and nonetheless be able to rock in October. But when that’s what you’d suppose, suppose once more. Take a look at what’s really occurred, simply within the theoretically extra forgiving wild-card period (1995-present).

Dropping second-half information, nonetheless made it to the World Sequence

2023 Diamondbacks: 32-39
2006 Cardinals: 35-39
2006 Tigers: 36-38

Worst second-half information, received the World Sequence

2006 Cardinals: 35-39
1996 Yankees: 40-37
2014 Giants: 35-31

(Supply: Baseball Reference / Stathead)

Adam Wainwright celebrates after the Cardinals defeated the Tigers in Sport 5 to win the 2006 World Sequence.  (David E. Klutho / Sports activities Illustrated through Getty Photos)

Sure, you learn that proper. Within the wild-card period, just one crew has survived a shedding report after the All-Star break and nonetheless received the World Sequence. …

And solely three groups have performed .500 or worse and even lived to play in a World Sequence — the place two of them (the 2006 Cardinals and Tigers) really matched up with one another. …

However even when we elevate the bar barely, each World Sequence winner in these final three a long time has been a minimum of 5 video games over .500 within the second half — apart from the three groups above.

So what does that inform us about baseball? Let’s ask the supervisor of the membership that had the worst second half of any of the groups on these lists — Torey Lovullo of the 2023 Diamondbacks.

“It’s an emotional curler coaster,” Lovullo informed me and Doug Glanville on the newest episode of The Windup’s Starkville podcast. “This recreation is loopy. And it’ll put on you down.”

So how does any crew spin via that curler coaster and survive with sufficient equilibrium to hit the reset button in October?

“We discuss consistency,” Lovullo mentioned. “We simply need to have guys that perceive the place they’re at and never get too excessive or not get too low. However ultimately, we’re going to seek out our method. It’s the insanity of a baseball season, and it does occur. And when you let it spiral, it should take you into a spot that’s very darkish. However when you consider that you simply’re going to discover a method out of it, (you may).”

Extra on the Diamondbacks momentarily. However first, let’s look extra intently on the Phillies and Guardians — and the way frightened they need to be about their very own second-half points.

The Phillies

The Phillies had been driving excessive once they swept the Dodgers in July. Then issues went sideways. (Invoice Streicher / USA At present)

THEIR GREATEST HITS — On July 9-10-11, the Phillies bulldozed Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers in a three-game collection in Philadelphia. So 93 video games into their season, the Phillies had been 61-32. They had been on a 106-win tempo. They had been 6 1/2 video games up on L.A. within the race for the Nationwide League’s No. 1 seed. That they had the perfect pitching workers within the league and the deepest offense within the league. What might probably go improper? Ha.

HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? So naturally, over the Phillies’ subsequent 35 video games, they went 13-22. Just one crew had a worse report over that six-week stretch. And it was — who else? — the White Sox. Simply three groups had a worse ERA in that span. And the Phillies’ once-rampaging offense scored almost 80 fewer runs in that stretch than Torey Lovullo’s Diamondbacks. So …

HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? There was one factor Dave Dombrowski knew: Regardless of the heck was occurring together with his crew, these 35 video games had been not telling him this group wasn’t proficient sufficient.

“We had eight All-Stars, proper?” the Phillies’ president of baseball operations mentioned. “In order that tells you you’re a really proficient crew. So that you don’t go from a crew that has a variety of expertise to not having any expertise.”

However Dombrowski did see a number of issues that involved him. One was the pitching — beginning with a banged-up rotation whose points wound up overtaxing the Phillies’ beforehand dominant bullpen.

However Dombrowski additionally was puzzled by the surprising decline of the offense after a persistently relentless first half. Subsequent factor he knew, that very same lineup spent a month re-enacting NLCS Video games 6 and seven in opposition to the Diamondbacks.

Most of all, although, Dombrowski questioned if possibly they’d all gotten too comfy after such a dominant first half. The Phillies had such an enormous lead by the center of June, they appeared to begin prioritizing what they might do to maintain their core wholesome for October. So Dombrowski admits he has requested himself if that probably despatched the improper message.

“I don’t know,” he mentioned. “Perhaps we set the tempo someplace. Perhaps we began taking a look at the long run quite than the quick time period. However I’m unsure about that.”

He simply knew there was time to repair what felt damaged. And during the last couple of weeks, the Phillies appear to have achieved that, roaring via a 9-2 streak in opposition to the Royals, Astros, Braves, Blue Jays and Marlins. So what modified? We’ll get again to that momentarily. However first …

The Guardians

After a win over the White Sox on July 4, the high-flying Guardians had been one of many worst groups within the AL over the subsequent 48 video games. (David Richard / USA At present)

THEIR GREATEST HITS — On the Fourth of July, the Guardians dusted off the White Sox to lift their report to 54-31. They led the AL Central by six video games (after as soon as main by as many as 9 in late June). That they had the perfect report within the American League, the fewest runs allowed within the league and 80 extra runs scored than that they had on the identical stage final season. In order that they had been all set for a run at 100 wins, proper? Oops.

HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? The marathon is all the time longer than it appears. Over the subsequent 48 video games, the Guardians went 21-27. Solely two groups within the AL — the Angels and White Sox — had worse information in that stretch. The Guardians’ beginning pitching imploded (10-24, 4.87 ERA). And going by their 83 wRC+, solely two lineups in baseball had been much less productive.

By the tip of play on Aug. 27, after a 3rd straight loss at house to Kansas Metropolis, the Guardians’ nine-game pad had, shockingly, disappeared. The Royals had tied them within the standings. And a gorgeous Cleveland baseball summer time didn’t appear so balmy anymore. So …

HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? Was it actually as bleak as all these messy factoids above made it appear? Not within the eyes of the Guardians’ unflappable president of baseball ops, Chris Antonetti.

“We had a extremely powerful stretch of video games after the All-Star break,” Antonetti mentioned, “with seven of our 9 opponents in playoff place on the time we performed them.

“Final I regarded,” he went on, “I believe we now have the second-most wins within the AL in opposition to groups with higher than a .500 report. So we’ve held our personal there.”

However does that report alone inform the complete story of the Guardians? I’m not so positive it does.

Early within the season, balls had been crusing over the fence. Steven Kwan appeared like he would possibly make a cost at .400. And this regarded like a totally completely different offense than the group that completed twenty seventh in MLB in runs scored final 12 months — and useless final in homers.

However what did the subsequent seven weeks seem like, after the White Sox left city on July 4? Not fairly so picturesque!

But additionally, there have been …

 (*Eleventh-best in MLB; **Ninth-lowest in MLB)

Just like the Phillies, the Guardians appear to have rebounded within the final week or so. They’ve received 5 of their final seven. They’ve stretched their lead within the Central again to 4 video games. And so they averaged almost seven runs per recreation within the 5 wins. So when Antonetti appears at these final two months, he sees simply the conventional “ebbs and flows to the common season.”

He sees a rotation that appears a lot improved after the addition of Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd. He sees an offense whose downturn stemmed principally from matchups with a bunch of fantastic staffs. So right here was his big-picture learn:

“Perhaps I’m not fascinated by it deeply sufficient,” he mentioned. “However I’m unsure there’s an excessive amount of I’d make of it. There’s not a variety of predictability to which groups win and advance as soon as the postseason begins.”

Then he requested: “Didn’t Texas and Arizona (the 2 World Sequence groups in 2023) battle in August final 12 months earlier than surging in September?”

Wonderful query! The Rangers misplaced 16 of 20 in August and September, however then received 17 of their subsequent 21 video games. And the Diamondbacks rocked via a wilder experience to the World Sequence than any crew ever.

On July 1, they had been 16 video games over .500 (50-34). However then … repeat after me … baseball occurred. The Diamondbacks received solely seven of their subsequent 32, propelling them from 16 video games over .500 to 2 video games underneath, with 46 left to play. Whereupon they boomeranged once more, going 27-15 earlier than getting swept of their closing collection of the season in Houston.

It added as much as a sub-.500 second half — however with a season-saving rebound in September. And if that looks like a blueprint for all of the groups on our Not So Good record, it’s as a result of it’s.

For each a type of groups, September gives the chance to rediscover their first-half mojo. And the Diamondbacks leaned into that chance, then used the reminiscence of that rebound once more this season to gas their torrid restoration from a 25-32 begin.

“I believe our guys have a really excessive baseball IQ … and this innate perception,” Lovullo mentioned. “We used to hope we had been going to win video games. We had been so involved about what’s taking place throughout the sector, within the different dugout. (However now) we consider in a lot of what’s occurring in our house that we all know we’re going to discover a method to get one thing achieved each single evening.”

“Should you let it spiral, it should take you into a spot that’s very darkish. However when you consider that you simply’re going to discover a method out of it, (you may),” mentioned Torey Lovullo, who guided the 2023 D-Backs to an unlikely World Sequence look. (Joe Camporeale / USA At present)

So what have we realized from these rides on the baseball curler coaster? It’s as fundamental as a 3-and-2 fastball:

Wake me up earlier than September ends

If all of this feels acquainted to Dave Dombrowski, it’s as a result of he has seen this film earlier than. Heck, he lived this film — with the 2006 Tigers.

“It’s humorous. I used to be speaking to Jim Leyland (the supervisor of that Tigers crew) about 2006 only in the near past,” Dombrowski mentioned. “And we agreed that one of many frequent denominators was: You should have had a extremely good first half … to qualify for the postseason and nonetheless be under .500 within the second half.  So principally, it normally means the expertise is there. And for some purpose, you’ve fallen off. So why?”

Why? Dombrowski believes there’s no extra essential query for any crew to ponder. When a crew begins to slip, there may be virtually all the time a couple of purpose. However the hazard signal he’s all the time looking out for is when a crew with an enormous lead takes its foot off the accelerator.

“Typically,” he mentioned, “some folks will grow to be considerably, I don’t know if that is the precise phrase, however content material. They’ll lose a bit little bit of that additional fireplace. And despite the fact that that’s not good, what it’s good to do is rekindle that fireside — to seek out it once more in an effort to achieve success within the postseason.”

That’s precisely what occurred to that 2006 Tigers crew, he believes. So “the important thing to getting again on observe,” he mentioned, “is the ‘why’ — and the way do you repair it?”

In 2006, Leyland delivered a message to his troops that September: Let’s get targeted. And over the previous couple of weeks, Dombrowski mentioned, his supervisor in Philly, Rob Thomson, has empowered the leaders in his clubhouse to sing that very same tune.

“It’s one thing they’ve talked about,” Dombrowski mentioned, “one thing they’ve labored on. And I believe they’ve already gotten that message throughout. I believe we’ve performed a lot better (not too long ago). And we actually wanted to get that again in gear.”

Is the baseball marathon a collection of ebbs and flows? It all the time is. And generally these ebbs and flows even strike in September. However as October nears, Dombrowski has lengthy understood, the perfect groups understand it’s the flexibility to play with focus and vitality every single day that usually separates the champs from everybody else.

So in baseball, September isn’t foliage time. It’s focus time.

“It’s simply a type of issues,” he mentioned, “the place you simply must sort of get it again. If you win a variety of video games early, you set your self able the place you may stand up to that little lull.

“However you’re not going to win a championship,” Dombrowski mentioned, “when you proceed to have that lull going into the postseason.”

(High photograph of Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh: Matt Krohn / Getty Photos)