Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/5/24

Tech assist: Embedding on fangraphs web site is damaged. Lacking opening <

Dan Szymborski: Uh oh

Dan Szymborski: OK, this appears to be mounted now

Dan Szymborski: However I’ll need to kind fairly slowly since no one’s in right here but

Oddball Herrera: So I used to be Dylan Crews’ first dwelling run.  It was a homer in 30/30 parks, however had an anticipated BA of like .330…I perceive {that a} 30/30 homer could not have a 1.000 xBA, however isn’t it somewhat odd that what was apparently a no-doubter was by xBA a lot most of the time an out?

Oddball Herrera: My final query makes me surprise what the ‘worst’ 30/30 ballparks dwelling run by xBA appeared like

Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means actually checked out this as I’m unconvinced by the utility

Dan Szymborski: quite a lot of park results are *oblique* and never simply park configuration

Dan Szymborski: Like in Oakland, a few of these 30/30 homers would have been foul outs earlier within the PA

Dan Szymborski: and it wind/temperature/humidity results from stadium to stadium

individual: how the hell is Eugenio doing this? I assume ZiPS thinks the workforce choice is an efficient deal by now?

Dan Szymborski: I requested AI to make a dramatization of what occurs after I break the pc

Dan Szymborski:

individual: it’s okay, a few of us know how one can copy into the jotcast hyperlink!

Dan Szymborski: At the beginning, it was solely eight of you!

Insert Witty Title Right here: Ought to the MLB contemplate shifting to a dice baseball as a substitute of a spherical ball?

Dan Szymborski: I might say no on that

Dan Szymborski: Thought it is perhaps ENTERTAINIGN at a decrease degree

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I didn’t even reply the Eugenio query. Sorry I’m distractable

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would have anticipated to be mroe prone to choose up the choice than not earlier than the season!

Dan Szymborski: It’s mainly a $13 million determination since there’s a $2 million buyout. Preseason, ZiPS had him at 2.0 WAR in 2025 with a 98 wRC+. Now it has him as much as 2.6 WAR

Dan Szymborski: Given the place Arizona is expertise smart, with a mid-80sish win roster, it’s laborious to not choose up the choice

Tech assist: How has Oneil Cruz’s bounce again from damage effected his projections?

Dan Szymborski: Up a bit, however mroe from elevated enjoying time than icnreased perfromance

individual: the house run in x ballparks, does it assume the identical projected distance in every single place together with COL/AZ?

Dan Szymborski: You *can* get the statcast model that makes use of environmental knowledge

Dan Szymborski: however it appears to be a generalized mannequin, not one particular to the state of affairs

John: Your writing companion Ben did an article on WAR utilizing RE24.  Do you favor WAR executed this fashion and do you utilize this logic in any respect in ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t desire this fashion, personally

Dan Szymborski: It’s INTERESTING in fact

Dan Szymborski: And it wouldn’t actually make a lot sense in ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: since the advantages of RE24 WAR are as a descriptor of what occurred, not an estimate of future expertise

Lowetide: Festa could or could not have a two-start subsequent week. Ought to I threat it or run Woo for a one-start?

Dan Szymborski: Actually is determined by whether or not you want quantitative or qualitative class boosts

Delusional Padres Fan: It’s nonetheless early, however Jackson Merrill’s batted ball profile looks like it was designed by a pc program.  Onerous line drive up the center, different manner, pulled excessive flyballs, and weak floor balls.  Unsure I’ve something so as to add apart from stating that.

Ist es vorbei für mich?: What’s Mistaken with Corbin Burnes?

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto satisfied that it’s not only a plip

Dan Szymborski: blip

Insert Witty Title Right here: Okay, pyramid ball then? I’ve had worse concepts.

Dan Szymborski: I believe one of many points is that floor balls develop into very bizarre

Dan Szymborski: and also you’d presumably kill somebody if the corners are sharp?

Chapman vs. Swanson: Which a kind of offers would you quite have?

Dan Szymborski: probaby swanson nonetheless

Padreser: What are your ideas on how the Padres are dealing with Ethan Salas? Appears unusual to only let a high prospect wrestle like this. Final yr they even had him play just a few video games in Double-A for some motive too?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve expressed an curiosity in advancing him aggressively. I can’t say for positive, however I’ve gotten the sensation from speaking with those who they really need him catching higher pitchers and that they assume the offensive half will deal with itself

Dan Szymborski: However Eric would in all probability have a greater really feel for that

Scrapper: Do you know that Christopher Sanchez is third in MLB in fWAR for pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: I did; he’s been up there all yr!

Scrapper: Do you assume the Orioles might have gotten Skubal or Crochet in a trafor Mayo or Basillo, and if that’s the case, will the Orioles remorse not pulling a set off on a deal like that on the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: OR? No.

Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly assured that the asks have been *excessive* particularly for Skubal

Dan Szymborski: And Crochet mainly saying Operation Shutdown: The Subsequent Technology if he didn’t get an extension, he turned riskier and fewer useful

Joe: What sort of deal do you assume Santander will get?

Dan Szymborski: 4 or 5 years for 20-25 mill every

HopefulFan: Win or lose with the contract extension of Chapman for the Giants? Protection is clearly elite, however is it price paying for that, a .230 avg, and 20 HRs?

Dan Szymborski: I used to be form of skeptical, however ZiPS assume it’s high quality

individual: pyramid ball sounds good to lastly put Whit Merrifield out of his distress

individual: t y p i n g s l o w l y  .  .  .

seth: simply needed to say i appreciated your Joey Votto article. I spent the previous couple of weeks studying all of the native and nationwide retrospectives on his profession and it 1) makes me really feel outdated, and a couple of) jogged quite a lot of nice reminiscences of fine Reds baseball. Can’t look ahead to him and Miggy to get inducted collectively!

Oden: I hold making an attempt to see why Lawrence Butler’s bubble will burst, and there’s nothing. His anticipated stats are higher than precise. Pretty customary BB/Ok charges. All the things to my eyes appears so as. Possibly inflated HR/FB, however he hits the ball laborious.
Is he only a actually good participant who was missed a bit by prospect rankings? Any thought what transfer to Sacramento could imply for him going ahead?

Dan Szymborski: I believe one of many points is that he wasn’t some man crushing the minors who was a borderline Ken Phelps All_Star

Dan Szymborski: He had like a WRC+ within the 90s (UNtranslated) in AAA and I believe one thing like 110 in AA

Your Title: do you might have any intel on why Zach Eflin was so low cost to amass in comparison with the opposite beginning pitchers moved on the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I used to be legitimately stunned

Dan Szymborski: You possibly can argue that the Jays acquired extra for 2 months for Kikuchi than the Rays acquired for a yr and two months of Eflin

individual: who’s executed extra in 2024 for his or her future by ZiPS, Matt Shaw or Emmanuel Rodriguez?

Dan Szymborski: Shaw’s five-year projections has improved greater than Rodriguez’s, however ZiPS already favored the latter much more than the previous

Scrapper: What is going to the Orioles’ infield and catching appear like firstly of 2027?

Dan Szymborski: may depend upon Basallo’s improvement

Dan Szymborski: however because it stands, Adley/Mayo/Westburg/Henderson/Holliday is clearly a reasonably good guess

JWR: Is it heretical so that you can be a soccer fan but when not, what’s your favourite soccer workforce?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a Steelers fan

Dan Szymborski: I do know, it’s odd to be an Orioles/Steelers fan

Dan Szymborski: however I used to be too younger for the Colts and my dad’s household was from Pittsburgh and I had already adopted a workforce earlier than the Browns turned the Ravens

JWR: How do you assume that O’Neil Cruz will modify to CF?  Wouldn’t RF be a extra logical spot given his arm?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’ll be high quality. It is smart to attempt CF earlier than settling for a nook

JWR: As an Orioles fan, would you be pleased if the Orioles signed Santander at 4 x 25 million/yr?

Dan Szymborski: Positive. The O’s have been underspending for a logn time

individual: if the White Sox really pull off a 12-10 end to keep away from 120 losses, it will likely be the most important upset since…?

Dan Szymborski: Given how the White Sox have performed this yr, it’d be like Park County pee wee hockey beating the Crimson Wings

JWR: GIve us a minor leaguer or first yr participant whose future ZIPS has gone although the roof due to his efficiency in 2024.

Dan Szymborski: It was Ortiz again in July, however now David Fry is #1

Oddball Herrera: What number of PAs does Holliday need to run a 58 wRC for earlier than Elias begins kicking himself for apparently making him untouchable on the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Loads

ViviTheBlackMage: Have you ever ever performed any of the FromSoftware video games?  I’m 45 Hrs into Darkish Souls and loving it regardless of it’s age and ruthlessness

Dan Szymborski: Solely dabbled somewhat

Visitor: When was the final time you cried and why?

Dan Szymborski: August 2019 when it turned clear that I’d very instantly need to put Galileo to sleep

Dan Szymborski: (my 20-year-old huge grey gourmand cat for individuals who don’t keep in mind)

Dan Szymborski: Thank goodness that was newer because the time earlier than was a videogame

Dan Szymborski: (I stunned myself by tearing up a bit on the dangerous, first ending you get in Chilly Metal IV, even within the unported Japanese model)

Twinsnowins: The 8 spot the Twins gave up within the 4th to the Rays final evening was the worst form of demise by 1,000,000 paper cuts.  I’m afraid they’ll simply limp into the playoffs with/with out Buxton/Correa after which for the primary spherical be like nah, we’re good and get swept

Dan Szymborski: Hey, they’ve executed that earlier than!

James: Does zips purchase the brand new Hunter Brown?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has for some time

Visitor: Curious what ZiPS thinks of Chapman’s 30s after his rebound season. He’s now as much as 37.3 bWAR (30ish fWAR) at age 31. Dare we are saying…he has a shot on the HOF? Any manner you possibly can see it taking place?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS favored it greater than I did. Can be extra in Jay’s piece

individual: Buxton with a setback… about how do you assume a ZiPS profession rerun assuming common well being would look?

Dan Szymborski: I did a time warp for him a pair years in the past

Colton: Have any opinion on the Yankees odd use of Dominguez this yr? How would you might have dealt with issues otherwise?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means had anybody take a look at me just like the Yankees apparently take a look at Alex Verdugo

mmddyyyy: After they say “center center” what’s it the middles of?

Dan Szymborski: strike zone

My title?: Why does MLB.com care a lot whether or not I’m human?

Dan Szymborski: People spend cash

Disco Danny Ford: Any thrilling overseas imports for 2025?

Dan Szymborski: Sasaki most clearly!

individual: “the time earlier than was a videogame” Pac-Man is simply stuffed with tragedy, I do know

Stephen: Is the choice to not convey up Jasson and play him over Verdugo as dangerous and dumb as many Yankees fan say it’s?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

ViviTheBlackMage: What would Zips supply Bregman and do you assume it’s cheap contemplating Bregman’s greatest years have been aided by the juiced ball and trash can shenanigans?  He appears to have settled within the 4-5 WAR vary which continues to be spectacular

Dan Szymborski: I’m unconvinced by the proof that it was an element

Dan Szymborski: and it’s dangerous largely due to the mens rea, not the outcomes

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would nonetheless supply Bregman 5/130

Dan Szymborski: He’s mainly been high quality for 3 months

Eli: Is there something Zips sees in Verdugo and Lemahieu that justifies the Cashman/Boone regime’s continued blind loyalty to random vets?

Dan Szymborski: No

Colton: Did the horrible begin to the yr meaningfully transfer Carroll’s future projections? Conversely, has the torrid second half moved them again a lot in the event that they did?

Dan Szymborski: Not meaningfully, simply shaded down a bit

individual: if tearing up a bit = crying then I’m a veritable John Boehner

Dan Szymborski: Properly, I solely teared up a bit on the online game

Dan Szymborski: I cry cried about dropping my buddy

mmddyyyy: What number of staff does an MLB org have?

Dan Szymborski: I’d guess someplace aroudn 500

mmddyyyy: Which period zone are you in?

Dan Szymborski: Japanese

Dan Szymborski: I’m from Baltimore however have lived in Ohio since 2007

Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means lived in a special time zone

mmddyyyy: Will we already know the tip of season voters?

Dan Szymborski: I believe solely Jack O’Connell within the BBWAA is aware of *all* the voters

Dan Szymborski: I did get my task of NL ROY just a few weeks in the past

mmddyyyy: How many individuals are within the chat proper now?

Dan Szymborski: 143

Dan Szymborski: Fewer than ordinary after the gradual begin

Dan Szymborski: at 12:05 it was at 11

Dan Szymborski: Because of me screwing up the put up

Visitor: For lack of higher phrasing, what are the error bars like for rookie defensive projections? I requested just a few months in the past why ZiPS didn’t like Colton Cowser’s protection when he was T3 by OAA, and his protection has progressively gotten an increasing number of common since then. Identical factor with Masyn Winn, however the different manner!

Dan Szymborski: Surprisingly, they’re similar to the error bar for all defensive projections, which stunned me. Very giant

individual: if, again on july 1, ZiPS solely knew the longer term W/L report til now of one in all both BAL or NYY, what would it not have predicted the division odds of the opposite workforce to be?

Dan Szymborski: I can positively not do that on the fly!

Visitor: Why doesn’t wOBA deal with IBB’s identical to common walks? Is it as a result of they’re thought of context dependent? It looks like for many hitter’s it might be a sufficiently small quantity to not likely matter and for somebody like 2004 Bonds it feels bizarre to exclude them from his offensive profile.

Dan Szymborski: Properly, somebody needed to determine by some means

Dan Szymborski: I’m unconvinced, although IBBs are messy due to their context dependence

Crimson Sox, however from blood: Kutter and Houck have each been tough previous few months. Do you consider both will flip it round and end robust?

Dan Szymborski: I’m extra bullish on Houck

angels 202?: ought to i even care in regards to the angels in any respect?

Dan Szymborski: No

individual: don’t robots additionally gamble on sports activities although?

Dan Szymborski: Sure, however there’s promoting and robots don’t get moderate-to-severe situations that it’s important to ask your physician about

Dan Szymborski: Although I’m nonetheless questioning why I’m speculated to be asking my physician if a drug is correct for me. I might assume that the physician had already thought of it

Dan Szymborski: Such as you wouldn’t go to the hearth division and ask them in the event that they although about utilizing fireplace hoses

Dan Szymborski: “Ask your French restaurant if butter is best for you.”

J: Has ZiPS’ outlook of PCA modified from this season?

Dan Szymborski: It had pale somewhat earlier, however it’s again to the place it must be

Dan Szymborski: effectively, again to the place it was

Dan Szymborski: the philosophical assertion of what PCA projection is morally superior is a theological query I can not reply

Phil: With Roman Anthony shifting up the prospect lists and Campbell not far behind, what ought to the Sox do with all their outfielders? O’Neill will presumably transfer on, however do they commerce one other man?

Dan Szymborski: I believe you simply see hwo issues shake out

Dan Szymborski: some will disappoint, somebody will get injured, so on

Oddball Herrera: Hey let’s be honest now…after final season the Twins have raised the expectation from “simply pleased to be right here” to “simply pleased to not get swept”.  The sky is the restrict! (I say this as a lifelong Twins fan, not being imply spirited)

mmddyyyy: Do you favor to shell your individual peanuts?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: household reasosn

Sen. Blutarsky: Byron Buxton is the Glass Joe of MLB.

Dan Szymborski: However Glass Joe’s particular transfer doesn’t hit laborious

Dan Szymborski: I believe Buxton is extra Don Flamenco

Dan Szymborski: or perhaps Bald Bull

Oden: might consuming skyline chili with beans —and making you name it chili—make you cry? What in case you needed to make a video of it professing your love, and in addition having fun with a Hotdog “sandwich” on the similar time?

Dan Szymborski: Consuming issues I don’t like doesn’t make me CRY

Visitor: do the fan graphs projected standings take into consideration total workforce efficiency, or do they favor latest success. for instance, the padres have been a .500 workforce till after the break

Dan Szymborski: They’re based mostly on the standings too date and the remainder of season projections

individual: I’ve at all times been hung up on that “average to extreme” language in drug advertisements too lol, it’s the “I’m a traditional individual” conceit that’s so strongly shattered by the necessity to use that apparent legalese

Dan Szymborski: I like answering moderate-to-severe or mild-to-moderate when somebody asks me how one thing is doing

Padre Sr: The Angels play the White Sox 6 occasions within the last 2 weeks. They’ll actually assist determine historical past.

Austin D.: Have you ever thought of doing (or perhaps have executed already) a ZiPS time warp for the remainder of Dave Kingman’s profession had he not been (possible) blackballed from the league? 35 dwelling runs at 37 years outdated is insane for a final season, even when he was a below-average hitter total that yr. Thanks on your time!

Dan Szymborski: I imply, he was fairly dangerous

Dan Szymborski: and a leaping off level at 37 isn’t going to be all that fascinating, I don’t assume

individual: do you favor to shell your individual pistachios? I do solely as a result of it’s the one factor retaining me from consuming 2500 energy price each sitting

re: peanuts: salted peanuts: simply eat the shell too!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually eat a ton of nuts

Dan Szymborski: peanuts usually tend to find yourself in stir fry

individual: Skyline sponsors some factor of the Reds broadcast, however I already neglect which one I used to be so triggered

Dan Szymborski: Skyline’s huge in Cincy clearly!

mmddyyyy: would growth imply an extended schedule?

Dan Szymborski: Most likely not

Guardcore Clevelander: There are sufficient nuts at fangraphs that you simply don’t want extra, Dan, you’re good xD

Dan Szymborski: in fact, peanuts are legumes!

ViviTheBlackMage: Are you continue to doing all your each different day fasting routine? I’ve gotten good outcomes from a 16:8 intermittent technique however am contemplating making an attempt different fasting choices out of curiosity

Dan Szymborski: Yup, down 51 kilos because the finish of the World Sequence

Dan Szymborski: And on that observe, since I’ve a Lindor piece to complete up, I’m going to need to bid you all farewell for this week!

individual: I’m having fun with this chat btw, very comparable vibes to the traditional FG chat period (not that present ones are dangerous, they’re just a bit much less… vivacious imo)

Dan Szymborski: Aren’t my chats often the identical?

individual: I believe it was the much less busy-ness because of the embed

individual: however anyway, perhaps it’s nothing substantive. g’day!

Dan Szymborski: ah

Dan Szymborski: I wish to assume my chats are often vivacious!

Dan Szymborski: However then once more, all of us wish to assume good issues about ourselves