AL MVP Race: Bobby Witt Jr. is placing collectively an MVP-caliber season on the unsuitable time

Bobby Witt is having an all-time nice season, particularly for a shortstop. Going again to 1969, solely two shortstops have put up greater than 10 fWAR, 1991 Cal Ripken Jr. and 2002 Alex Rodriguez. For bWAR there are three together with Ripken, Rodriguez, and Rico Petrocelli who I’ll come again to once more later as he’s the one baseball participant in historical past with a ten+ WAR season that I had by no means heard of earlier than. Witt is on tempo to hitch their ranks. He at present has 9.6 WAR per Fangraphs and eight.9 on Baseball Reference. He has performed each sport this season and is on a per 162 sport tempo of 11.1 and 10.4 respectively.

It’s not simply WAR both. Amongst certified shortstops since 1969, he ranks eighth in batting common, sixth in slugging, and first in wRC+. It’s arduous to inform the place he’ll find yourself with the counting stats, however he’s doubtless going to be 30/30 and already has 117 runs and 97 RBI. It’s only a straight up monster season, and but he’s not going to win the MVP. In virtually another 12 months, or heck within the Nationwide League this 12 months, he would doubtless win it simply. Sadly for Witt, Aaron Decide is having probably the best (non-steroid aided) trendy season on the plate that we now have ever seen.

Loads of persons are giving numerous stats about how nice Decide is and also you can learn them at your leisure. He’s on tempo to hit proper round 60 residence runs, however with what he has been doing currently, would possibly break his personal American League report. His wRC+ is 223 which implies he’s 123% higher than the typical hitter within the league. Witt will most likely win the batting title, however Decide is second. His OBP is .464, and no person with out the final identify Bonds has completed something like this degree of manufacturing within the 2000s. Return additional and solely Ted Williams and Babe Ruth be a part of the celebration.

So, Witt could be very doubtless going to complete second in MVP voting this 12 months, and it simply made me marvel who one of the best gamers to lose out on the MVP have been. These break down into just a few teams, however first I’ll present you the highest 10 based on Fangraphs and Baseball Reference WAR. Then we’ll delve a little bit deeper into how they ended up lacking out on the {hardware}. I’ll keep away from pitchers for simplicity’s sake. They don’t win typically and have their very own award which muddies the water.

You may see that that the 2 formulations don’t significantly agree what this high 10 ought to appear to be, however it’s extra that I’m utilizing an arbitrary reduce off at high ten. As an illustration, Mike Trout 2018 is simply outdoors the Fangraphs checklist. Regardless, this provides a great checklist of participant years that will usually be MVPs, however as a consequence of some unhealthy voting, luck, or timing, they didn’t get the award. That occurred in just a few alternative ways, so I’m going to group them into these archetypes. We are going to save essentially the most ludicrous for final. Additionally, Witt is on tempo to eclipse all of them.

Three of those gamers misplaced in the identical method it seems to be like Witt goes to. That they had an unbelievable 12 months, however another person was even higher. Two of them bumped into peak Barry Bonds when he received 4 consecutive MVPs from 2001 to 2004. Sammy Sosa’s nice 2001 had no likelihood in opposition to 73 residence runs. Ditto for Adrian Beltre in 2004 when Bonds had a 212 wRC+. All the traditional Barry Bonds caveats apply, however dishonest or not, he was one of the best participant by the numbers and far of the league nonetheless had their blinders on. Mike Trout bumped into one other nice participant in 2018. Mookie Betts had an outstanding season, higher than Trout’s most likely and Betts had by no means gotten an MVP earlier than. The voters’ tendency to become bored with giving it to the identical individuals time and again made it almost inevitable. The following group most likely mustn’t have misplaced, however no less than you possibly can see the argument

Comprehensible however most likely not proper:

Jason Giambi had an MVP caliber 12 months in 2000, and whenever you evaluate him to Alex Rodriguez it isn’t loopy that he received. Giambi hit 43 homers and Rodriguez completed with 41. Giambi had just a few extra RBI and A-Rod scored extra runs. Total, Giambi was only a higher hitter that season by most metrics together with all three slashes the place he hit .333/.476/.647. WAR likes Rodriguez higher based mostly on protection, each high quality and the place he performed. That was nonetheless the Seattle based mostly shortstop model of Rodriguez, and he was actually good. Giambi was a BAD first baseman. The defensive distinction between these two is very large. He most likely didn’t deserve the award, however no less than I perceive what occurred. The one defensible alternative over Rodriguez would have been Pedro Martinez who was unbelievable that 12 months.

In 1973, Pete Rose had a really Pete Rose season, however only a bit higher than all of the others. He collected 230 hits and managed a .338 common whereas getting on base 40% of the time. By all trendy defensive metrics, it was additionally his greatest season within the discipline. He ended up at 7.3 fWAR and eight.3 bWAR. In 2024 the slugging discrepancy between him and Darrell Evans would have been understood significantly better. Evans hit 41 residence runs and slugged .556 ending second in that statistic. Rose hit 5 homers and his .437 slugging proportion was fantastic, however method behind Evans. Evans simply performed within the unsuitable period to win based mostly on the combo of statistics he produced, however he additionally misplaced to somebody who was solely barely much less unbelievable. Nonetheless, Evans completed 18th within the voting.

Now essentially the most memorable MVP dialogue of my lifetime as a result of I used to be very a lot within the on-line baseball group throughout it. Miguel Cabrera received the MVP in each 2012 and 2013. In these two seasons Mike Trout took second place in each votes. It’s fairly straightforward to elucidate what occurred in 2013. Cabrera received the triple crown, which had not been completed since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Trout had an outstanding season, however the historical past of the triple crown makes me assume the hole in WAR of 1 and a half or so by each estimations was not sufficient. The 2012 vote was the one which I might actually take concern with.

They have been almost the identical from a hitting perspective. Cabrera has an edge in slugging, however they have been virtually an identical after park changes and such. I believe Trout being a rookie damage him quite a bit as a result of voters might assume he was already going to get an enormous award, so they might cut up and ensure each gamers get an honor. I simply assume the hole in protection, each place performed and the way significantly better Trout was on the more durable job, was so huge that it’s absurd to say Cabrera was extra deserving.

The curious case of Rico Petrocelli was not one I used to be anticipating to see going into this. Petrocelli manned brief all through the again half of the 60s for the Purple Sox after which switched and lined third for the primary half of the 70s. He was a great participant, not Corridor of Fame good, however a stable on a regular basis man for 10 years. He was normally value 2 to 4 WAR, however in 1969 he doubled his WAR output relative to another season by placing up 10. Harmon Killebrew beat him out for the award with a stable, although unspectacular season. He led the league in residence runs and RBI whereas amassing 145 walks. Killebrew was good, however he was fairly tough over at third base and solely okay when he performed first. Regardless of Killebrew having 17 extra homers than Petrocelli, their slugging percentages have been .584 and .589 respectively. Petrocelli had a greater common and slugging proportion, and he was an unbelievable shortstop. He was fourth in fielding proportion and made the fewest errors of any common shortstop in baseball, simply fewer makes an attempt for no matter cause, which pushed the fielding proportion down a bit. It was comparable in trendy phrases to what Bobby Witt is doing now defensively. Killebrew had the massive identify and out hit him barely, so Petrocelli needed to accept a seventh place end within the MVP voting. He sadly by no means even received a Gold Glove, which he would have completed many instances by trendy metrics.

The egregiously unhealthy MVP choices:

We’re completed with the comprehensible outcomes, now on to a number of the indefensible nonsense that MVP voting has hire previously. Beginning with a basic in 1985 the place Don Mattingly took residence the award over Rickey Henderson. Rickey would let you know that Rickey was one of the best baseball participant, and in 1985 he was. He hit .314/.419/.516 whereas scoring 146 runs and stealing 80 bases. His slugging proportion ought to all the time be adjusted since half of his walks and singles flip into doubles. Don Mattingly hit .324/.371/.567 whereas taking part in awful first base protection. Nobody ever charged him with an error although, and so it appeared like he was good and he received a number of gold gloves. He additionally performed for a great Yankees group whereas Henderson was on a really mediocre Oakland group. It was not a sensible choice, however a number of the upcoming ones are a lot worse.

The 2002 model of Miguel Tejada led the league in nothing. Effectively, aside from video games performed, I assume. It was a fantastic season, however not an MVP caliber one. Alex Rodriguez in the meantime was spectacular. He hit 57 residence runs and had 142 RBIs to Tejada’s 108. Tejada outhit A-Rod by .008 in common however Rodriguez crushed him in on-base and slugging. Sadly, the Rangers have been final of their division whereas Oakland received it, and the voters thought that was sufficient to make up for the 4+ WAR hole in manufacturing. Clearly Tejada didn’t have the higher season, even a number of the voters would concede that, however his group made the playoffs so he was “extra useful”.

The following one is private for me. Ken Griffey Jr. has quite a bit to do with why I’m writing about baseball proper now. He was my favourite participant as a child, and I bear in mind getting up each morning and turning on SportsCenter to see if he hit a house run the evening earlier than. Juan Gonzalez virtually matched Griffey as a hitter in 1996. Griffey completed 49 residence runs and 140 RBIs whereas Gonzalez had 47 and 144. Their OPSes have been 1.020 and 1.011, so it seems to be like they have been fairly near even. Right here’s the rub although, Arlington was a very pleasant park to hit in whereas the Kingdome was a really common park, so Griffey was doing it in arduous mode. Oh yeah, and he was probably the greatest middle fielders of all time that season versus a nasty nook outfielder. Griffey ought to have received this simply, or no less than it might have gone to his teammate, Rodriguez, who would have additionally been deserving that 12 months.

Mike Schmidt led all of baseball in residence runs and slugging in 1974. He was second in runs and third in RBIs. He was an distinctive third baseman. And he nonetheless misplaced to Steve Garvey within the MVP vote. He additionally completed behind Lou Brock, Mike Marshall, Johnny Bench, and Jim Wynn. Garvey hit .312 and drove in 111, so he wasn’t unhealthy or something. He simply didn’t do something that stands out. He received a Gold Glove at first base? That’s all I received. It simply doesn’t make any sense besides that Schmidt struck out an excessive amount of for that period.

Lastly, the final and most ridiculous of the bunch. Are you able to think about placing up an all-time nice season as a shortstop after which watching a reduction pitcher win the MVP over you? In 1984 Cal Ripken Jr. completed the 12 months fifth within the AL in wRC+, hitting .304/.374/.510 whereas scoring 103 runs and driving in 86. He had one of the best offensive WAR by Baseball Reference due to the positional adjustment. He was additionally the best defensive WAR. He received the 1983 MVP so possibly individuals didn’t wish to give it to him once more? Ripken not solely misplaced the vote, he completed twenty seventh? I’m not sufficiently old to recollect this time interval, however it’s baffling to take a look at with 2024 eyes. The winner that 12 months was Willie Hernandez who threw 140.1 innings in reduction for Detroit. He had one of the best ERA for any AL reliever at 1.92, however second was 2.03, so not precisely otherworldly. Two different AL relievers had extra saves. Hernandez additionally received the Cy Younger Award though Mike Boddicker had a 20-win season. In 1983 Jesse Orosco had a significantly better reduction season and completed third. I really feel like there was one thing else that brought about this. There isn’t a method that many citizens actually thought Hernandez had an MVP season. Cal Ripken Jr. can add to his trophy assortment the worst therapy in an MVP vote of all time.