A fees-paid automated berth to the Nov. 2 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf is up for grabs within the $500,000 Flower Bowl Stakes, certainly one of three graded stakes going down at Saratoga Race Course this Saturday.
Slated to be held at 1 3/8 miles on turf, the Flower Bowl has drawn 11 entries, together with two horses — #10 Film Moxy and #11 Amanda’s Folly — who will compete provided that rain causes the Flower Bowl to be switched from turf to filth. Assuming the race stays on the grass and they’re scratched, we’ll be left with a nine-horse area.
Two previous Flower Bowl winners have returned to hunt a second victory. #1 Struggle Like Goddess, a perennial chief amongst North America’s long-distance turf females, received the 2021 Flower Bowl when it was a Grade 1 race. She additionally completed second by a neck in the 2022 version.
On her finest day, Struggle Like Goddess is downright formidable. She’s crushed males within the final two editions of the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Traditional Stakes and completed third in opposition to males within the 2022 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf. She stays in good kind this yr, rallying to complete third within the Grade 1 New York Stakes Introduced by Rivers On line casino going a 1 3/16-mile distance shorter than her finest earlier than closing strongly from behind a gradual tempo to win the 1 3/8-mile Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes at Delaware Park.
The problem for Struggle Like Goddess on Saturday is the actual fact she’s drawn the rail publish. The Flower Bowl is unlikely to unfold at a quick tempo, so if Struggle Like Goddess will get boxed in behind a gradual tempo, she might have issue discovering a approach out in time to launch a successful rally. That’s what occurred within the 2022 Flower Bowl — Struggle Like Goddess bought buried on the rail behind an extremely gradual tempo, and by the point she discovered a transparent path it was too late to catch the front-running winner.
The opposite Flower Bowl winner entered this Saturday is #3 Parnac, who faces an reverse impediment. Parnac led from begin to end to win the 2023 Flower Bowl by 1 1/4 lengths over #7 McKulick. However Parnac benefited from setting extraordinarily gradual quarter-mile fractions of :25.19, :51.33, and 1:18.82. She’s been defeated by McKulick in a few begins since then, together with the 1 1/2-mile Glens Falls Stakes at Saratoga Aug. 1, so except Parnac lucks into one other uncontested lead, repeating within the Flower Bowl might show troublesome.
All this provides as much as the distinct risk of a brand new title successful the Flower Bowl. Three candidates seem to have sturdy possibilities: the above-mentioned McKulick, the up-and-coming #4 Everlasting Hope, and the European raider #9 Verbier.
McKulick has been a drive to reckon with for years. Again in 2022 she received the 1 1/4-mile, Grade 1 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes and 1 3/8-mile Jockey Membership Oaks Invitational. In 2023, she received the Glens Falls and the 1 3/8-mile Waya Stakes, along with ending second with a poor tempo setup within the Flower Bowl. This yr, McKulick counts victories within the 1 1/2-mile Orchid Stakes and the Glens Falls on her file. Lengthy-distance grass stakes are McKulick’s sturdy swimsuit, and drawing publish seven within the Flower Bowl affords her extra choices than Struggle Like Goddess for figuring out a clear journey. It’s value noting, McKulick defeated Struggle Like Goddess by a neck within the 2023 Glens Falls right here at Saratoga.
Transferring on to Everlasting Hope, the 4-year-old Godolphin homebred faltered in her first begin of 2024, fading from a pace-pressing place to complete fourth, 3 ¾ lengths behind McKulick, within the Glens Falls. However the tempo of the Glens Falls was sharp, and Everlasting Hope might have wanted a race for health functions. Final yr, Everlasting Hope went 2-for-2 in North America for famend coach Charlie Appleby, launching sturdy rallies to win the 1 3/8-mile Fasig-Tipton Jockey Membership Oaks Invitational and 1 1/8-mile Sands Level Stakes.
Based on Brisnet statistics, Appleby wins at a lofty 37% charge with horses operating again for the second time following a layoff. Everlasting Hope is eligible to maneuver ahead in her second begin of 2024, particularly if she reverts to the closing ways she employed so efficiently in 2023.
As for Verbier, she’s making her North American debut after successful the British E.B.F. Lyric Fillies’ Stakes racing 1 5/16 miles at York in England. The daughter of British celebrity Frankel is progressing in the correct path for coach Ralph Beckett, who has despatched Starlust and Kinross to file top-three finishes on the Breeders’ Cup World Championships lately.
We advocate taking a daring strategy to betting the Flower Bowl. Slightly than choosing a win guess on one horse, we advise betting trifecta tickets utilizing McKulick and Everlasting Hope on prime whereas including Struggle Like Goddess, Parnac, Verbier, and the Grade 1-placed #6 Neecie Marie beneath. If we are able to choose the highest three finishes so as, we’re certain to catch a pleasant payoff.
Wagering Technique A: Beneath $15
$1 trifecta: 4,7 with 1 with 3,4,6,7,9 ($8)
What to say on the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $1 trifecta 4,7 with 1 with 3,4,6,7,9
$1 trifecta: 4,7 with 4,6,7,9 with 1 ($6)
What to say on the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $1 trifecta 4,7 with 4,6,7,9 with 1
Wagering Technique B: Beneath $40
$1.50 trifecta: 4,7 with 1 with 3,4,6,7,9 ($12)
What to say on the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $1.50 trifecta 4,7 with 1 with 3,4,6,7,9
$1.50 trifecta: 4,7 with 4,6,7,9 with 1 ($9)
What to say on the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $1.50 trifecta 4,7 with 4,6,7,9 with 1
$0.50 trifecta: 4,7 with 1,4,6,7,9 with 1,3,4,6,7,9 ($16)
What to say on the betting window: Saratoga, Race 12, $0.50 trifecta 4,7 with 1,4,6,7,9 with 1,3,4,6,7,9
Good luck, and benefit from the race!
