A small however robust subject has turned out for Saturday’s $750,000, Grade 1 Resorts World On line casino Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga. The 1 ½-mile turf race awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf on Nov. 2 at Del Mar, and this prize – coupled with the wealthy purse – has attracted a pair of completed runners from the globally highly effective Godolphin steady.
The 2 horses carrying Godolphin’s royal blue silks are #2 Measured Time (7-5) and #4 Silver Knott (1-1). They create differing strengths to the desk, however there’s a powerful likelihood they’ll end first and second within the Sword Dancer. The query is, which one will win?
Silver Knott is the slim morning-line favourite, not less than partially as a result of he’s confirmed over the Sword Dancer distance. Runner-up by a nostril within the 2022 Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Silver Knott went 0-for-6 whereas competing over center distances from one mile to 1 ¼ miles in 2023. However since stretching out over longer journeys in 2024, Silver Knott has been unstoppable.
Certainly, the 4-year-old gelding opened 2024 with a pace-pressing victory within the 1 ½-mile, Grade 2 VisitLEX Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland, after which he rated behind a runaway chief on his solution to a 4 ½-length drubbing of the 1 3/8-mile, Grade 2 Man o’ Battle Stakes at Belmont on the Massive A. Ending third that day was Nations Delight, who lately gained the Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes.
Silver Knott’s newest victory got here within the 1 3/8-mile, Grade 2 Bowling Inexperienced Stakes at Saratoga. In a small, paceless subject, Silver Knott set an trustworthy tempo up entrance earlier than edging away to win by 2 ½ lengths, incomes a career-best 107 Brisnet Velocity ranking. Common rider Flavien Prat is retaining the mount within the Sword Dancer, and one other robust exhibiting needs to be within the offing.
Measured Time is the second selection on the morning line, however there’s an opportunity he’ll be favored by put up time. True, he misplaced his lone begin over 1 ½ miles, ending second within the Racing TV Floodlit Stakes at Kempton Park in England final fall. However that race occurred over an artificial monitor, and Measured Time has accomplished his finest work on turf.
In the course of the winter and spring in Dubai, Measured Time displayed glorious kind racing 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles). He gained the Group 2 Al Rashidya Stakes by 3 ¼ lengths, then took the Group 1 Jebel Hatta Stakes over stablemate Ottoman Fleet, who has since gained the Grade 2 Smart Dan Stakes and Grade 3 Arlington Stakes along with ending third within the Grade 1 FanDuel Fourstardave Handicap.
Measured Time ended his Dubai marketing campaign with a fourth-place end towards robust worldwide competitors within the Group 1 Dubai Turf, the place he was crushed just one ¼ lengths. Then, following a two-month break, he journeyed to the U.S. for the 1 3/16-mile, Grade 1 Resorts World On line casino Manhattan Stakes at Saratoga, during which he vied for early command earlier than edging clear to beat the above-mentioned Nations Delight by two lengths.
Profitable the Manhattan earned Measured Time a 104 Brisnet Velocity ranking. Technically, that’s slightly slower than Silver Knott ran within the Bowling Inexperienced. However as a son of British celebrity Frankel out of the Road Cry mare Minidress, Measured Time has the pedigree to shine whereas stretching out over 1 ½ miles on turf, so there’s a very good likelihood he’ll enhance over the Sword Dancer distance. Don’t overlook, Minidress has beforehand foaled Insurgent’s Romance, winner of the 2022 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf and a nine-time winner over 1 ½ miles.
So how ought to we guess the Sword Dancer? By the narrowest margin, we desire the probabilities of Measured Time over Silver Knott. Bettors taking part in on a small price range (say, $10) ought to take into account an exacta utilizing Measured Time in first place and Silver Knott in second place.
However you probably have extra capital to speculate (say, $30), we suggest a special technique. Moderately than attempt to cut up Measured Time and Silver Knott, we propose taking part in them collectively within the first two slots of a trifecta ticket whereas including #1 Soldier Rising (8-1) for third place.
Soldier Rising couldn’t sustain with Silver Knott within the Bowling Inexperienced, ending second by 2 ½ lengths. However the 6-year-old son of Frankel has repeatedly run nicely towards Grade 1 competitors over the previous couple of years. He’s completed second or third in no fewer than six Grade 1 races, together with the final two editions of the Sword Dancer.
As a late runner, Soldier Rising gained’t be helped by the small subject and certain sluggish tempo of this yr’s Sword Dancer, which ought to favor Silver Knott and Measured Time. However he seems more likely to shut for third place and produce a decent trifecta payoff.
Wagering Technique on a $10 Funds
$10 exacta: 2 with 4
What to say on the betting window: Saratoga, ninth race, $10 exacta 2 with 4
Wagering Technique on a $30 Funds
$15 trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1 ($30)
What to say on the betting window: Saratoga, ninth race, $15 trifecta 2,4 with 2,4 with 1
Good luck, and benefit from the race!
