I’ll at all times have an affinity for hitters with a knack for vertical bat variability. To successfully cowl pitches at totally different heights within the strike zone, a hitter has to range the angle of their bat relative to the bottom to create carry. To hit a pitch on the prime of the zone for a line drive, the bat needs to be flatter, and to carry a pitch on the backside of the zone for a line drive, the bat needs to be steeper. It’s a easy idea that some hitters can execute with extra consistency than others. Jackson Merrill is a type of guys.
Once I first actually began stepping into the mechanics of hitting, Mike Trout was the dude who made it straightforward to know vertical bat variability. Classic Trout’s decrease half appeared nearly similar throughout all swings, however relying on the peak of the pitch, his whole torso angle would regulate. By way of the years, gamers like Michael Brantley, Freddie Freeman, and Trea Turner have all executed spectacular ranges of vertical bat variability, too. And unsurprisingly, all of them maintained (or nonetheless do) strikeout charges properly beneath the league common with nice gap-to-gap line drive expertise. When Eric Longenhagen first in contrast Merrill’s swing to that of Brantley, I grew to become very impatient anticipating what the Padres outfielder would do within the huge leagues. Thus far, he’s exceeded expectations.
By way of his first 121 profession video games, Merrill has hit for a 125 wRC+ with a .290/.321/.484 slash line. Over the previous month, he’s discovered his energy stroke to go together with his excellent line drive swing, and through that span, he’s been the most effective hitters in baseball, with a 182 wRC+ throughout 104 plate appearances. It’s come at an excellent time for the Padres, who’ve picked it up and are solely three video games behind the NL West-leading Dodgers.
Merrill’s sound mechanics and manufacturing on the plate are all of the extra spectacular contemplating that he’s nonetheless only a 21-year-old rookie who can be studying a brand new place. Though his outfield expertise within the minors was restricted to 45 innings in left discipline final yr at Double-A, he’s already become one of many prime defensive middle fielders within the recreation (6 OAA).
His potential to go down and get it with the very best of them whereas nonetheless overlaying the highest of the strike zone is the important thing to his success so early in his profession. Under is a desk highlighting his performances in each the higher and decrease thirds of the zone:
Merrill Efficiency by Vertical Zone
| Zone | xwOBA | League Rank* |
|---|---|---|
| Higher Third | .381 | 27 |
| Center Third | .432 | 29 |
| Decrease Third | .386 | 25 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
*Out of 194 batters to see at the very least 1,250 pitches as of Aug. 20
Elite hitters have all totally different shapes of manufacturing. Juan Soto mashes every part on the prime of the zone, Aaron Choose crushes every part within the coronary heart, and Yordan Alvarez demolishes every part down low. However it’s unusual for hitters to be this productive on each excessive and low pitches. Actually, among the many 194 hitters who’ve seen 1,250 pitches this season, solely two different gamers have xwOBAs that rank within the prime 30 on pitches in each the higher and decrease thirds of the zone, Ketel Marte and Marcell Ozuna, who’re two of the very best 11 hitters within the recreation by wRC+. Merrill and Ozuna are the one two hitters with top-30 xwOBAs in all three vertical thirds.
As I mentioned earlier than, a hitter must make use of a flatter swing path on the prime of the zone and a steeper one on the backside. Sounds straightforward sufficient, however the tough half is producing sufficient bat pace throughout a spread of bat angles to make it work from a harm perspective whereas sustaining the physique management to make contact. What’s notable right here is how Merrill does this: Not like most hitters, Merrill retains his bat vertically oriented towards high and low pitches, which permits him create sufficient carry to shoot the gaps irrespective of the peak of the pitch. It’s a stability of energy and finesse that Merrill appears to have mastered.
I might throw a bunch of numbers at you to clarify this explicit ability, however the easiest way to know that is by watching what he does together with his physique and bat. Let’s have a look:
Higher Third
Earlier than watching the decrease third swings, listed here are a number of fast notes. He maintains his posture and shoulder aircraft throughout all three of those swings. Due to that, he retains his bat on the identical vertical aircraft as these pitches so he can sq. up the underside a part of the baseball to create backspin however not get to this point below it that he pops them up. Additionally, his torso backbend on the second swing is implausible. This transfer is most noticeable from a hitter like Shohei Ohtani, who proper earlier than contact bends his higher physique backward to present his barrel house to get behind the ball. Few hitters have the required higher physique or t-spine flexibility to do that; Merrill is one in every of them. Okay, now onto some swings within the decrease third:
Decrease Third
Take note of his again shoulder on every of those swings. Merrill’s physique and bat are shifting collectively as he swings, and he makes use of his again shoulder as a information to get his barrel on aircraft with pitches within the decrease third. Whether or not it’s a back-foot breaking ball or a dotted heater away, his again shoulder angle traces up his swing.
The essential factor to remove from all of that is Merrill has a terrific understanding of find out how to use his higher physique to get his bat on aircraft with pitches at totally different heights. That’s the elite ability carrying his recreation proper now. He has the expertise to develop extra instruments and sharpen those he at the moment owns as he beneficial properties extra expertise. He’s already began tapping into his energy extra over the past month or so. He nonetheless chases too many pitches and struggles towards lefties, albeit in a small pattern of plate appearances (70 wRC+, 127 PA), however once more, he’s 21 and figuring issues out in his first huge league season. What we’re seeing from him proper now’s basically his start line as a hitter, and that’s actually thrilling.
