On the sphere, the 2024 Seattle Seahawks will look rather a lot like the identical crew that wrapped the 2023 season. Geno Smith will nonetheless be quarterback, slinging passes to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The operating again platoon of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet will run round edges set by tackles Abe Lucas and Charles Cross. The protection will probably be led by Devon Witherspoon and Leonard Williams.
However the man calling the performs will probably be totally different. That’s what Seattle hopes will make all of the distinction.
Pete Carroll retired this offseason, calling it a profession after 14 years, 137 common season wins and a Tremendous Bowl victory with the Seahawks. In his stead comes Mike Macdonald, one other defensive-minded head coach Seattle hopes can bridge the hole between Carroll’s throwback mentality and an evolving NFL. That leaves massive sneakers for Macdonald to fill, however given his new crew’s largest weak spot, they’re sneakers that may simply match.
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The Seahawks’ protection was lower than the sum of its elements to wrap the Carroll period
Seattle rose to perennial rivalry beneath Carroll by way of two traits: a smothering protection and an environment friendly, run-heavy offense. From 2012 to 2015, a stretch wherein the Seahawks received 46 common season video games and appeared in two Tremendous Bowls, Carroll’s groups ranked no worse than fourth within the NFL in dashing yards over a given season. His protection ranked first general in factors allowed each a type of years.
That turned much less and fewer sustainable because the league advanced towards excessive affect passing offenses. Carroll finally leaned away from the run, rating seventeenth, twenty seventh, twenty second and thirty first within the league in handoffs over his ultimate 4 seasons. His protection fell right into a vortex as properly, rating twenty second, twenty eighth, twenty sixth after which thirtieth in yards allowed in the identical area.
Seattle was capable of overcome that and common greater than 9 wins per season over that closing stretch, but additionally didn’t win a single playoff sport. This all occurred regardless of a mishmash of star defensive gamers and stable starters together with, however not restricted to:
- Bobby Wagner
- Quandre Diggs
- Jamal Adams
- DJ Reed
- Riq Woolen
- Uchenna Nwosu
- Devon Witherspoon
- Leonard Williams
- Julian Love
- Jordyn Brooks
That group couldn’t tread water within the turbulent seas of the NFC West. Now Macdonald, mind behind the Baltimore Ravens protection that completed third, then first within the NFL in factors allowed in his two seasons as defensive coordinator, will get to work with a bunch that discarded a few of its older members — Diggs, Wagner and Adams are all gone — however brings again Love, Williams, Woolen, Nwosu, and Witherspoon together with 2024 first spherical choose Byron Murphy.
That’s stable star energy, however Macdonald’s energy is available in growing gamers to the height of their skills. Geno Stone and Justin Madubuike emerged as invaluable starters beneath his watch. Patrick Queen, a former first spherical choose, performed one of the best soccer of his profession after Macdonald turned DC (although the addition of Roquan Smith definitely performed a task). Kyle Van Noy revived his profession, as soon as once more, with a 9 sack 2023 regardless of not signing with Baltimore till late September.
Who might this apply to within the Pacific Northwest? Woolen backslid a bit after a formidable rookie marketing campaign. Boye Mafe could also be getting ready to a breakout after 9 sacks (with solely 16 quarterback hits) in 2023. Nwosu returns to the lineup after lacking 11 video games final 12 months because of damage. Tyrel Dodson was signed after 4 unremarkable seasons as a Buffalo Invoice and Jerome Baker arrived after six years as a Miami Dolphin. These two aren’t fairly Queen and Smith, however Macdonald’s monitor report suggests he could make that duo a helpful binary star system in the midst of the sphere.
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If that protection can’t enhance, Geno Smith can nonetheless push Seattle to a successful report
That isn’t a controversial assertion. Smith has performed it earlier than. He did it the final two years, successful 9 video games every season.
However the strain is squarely on his shoulders in 2024. He’s auditioning for a brand new head coach. He might be launched after this season whereas leaving solely $13.5 million behind in lifeless cap area (and is scheduled to hit free company in 2026 anyway).
Smith regressed from his shocking, comeback participant of the 12 months 2022 kind, however nonetheless remained an above common passer. His completion price dropped from a league-best 69.8 to 64.2 at the same time as his common throw distance fell from 7.6 yards to 7.0 (and his receiving corps added Jaxon Smith-Njigba). His landing price dipped (from 30 in 17 video games to twenty in 15) and his passer score slid from 100.9 to 92.1.
Nonetheless, he wasn’t dangerous by any stretch. His 4 fourth quarter comebacks and 5 sport successful drives led the league. Get rid of rubbish time — the snaps taken when the Seahawks’ win likelihood was both over 80 % or beneath 20 % — and Smith’s 0.161 anticipated factors added (EPA) per dropback was tenth greatest within the NFL.
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So what brought on the numbers downturn? Blocking was a giant perpetrator, as Smith’s strain price rose from 22 % to 25.5, the sixth-worst quantity within the league. This additionally made him much less efficient as a runner, as he left the pocket much less typically and gained fewer yards per scramble than he did in his spectacular 2022 (34 scrambles for 310 yards that 12 months, 20 for 158 in 2023). He was additionally barely worse as a passer; his dangerous throw price jumped from 11.8 to 14.6. The latter continues to be a high 10 determine, simply not the No. 1 rating Smith held in his first full season as Seattle’s starter.
Smith turns 34 in October, so it’s seemingly we’ve already seen his ceiling as a quarterback (although we thought that again in 2021 and, properly…). Fortuitously for him, Carroll was proactive in including reinforcements that may extend his peak.
Metcalf stays a stud. Lockett’s affect could also be waning as a speed-focused wideout who’ll flip 32 quickly, however his skill to keep away from contact has stored further miles from his odometer. Smith-Njigba is a curious story who averaged fewer than 10 yards per catch final 12 months and whose 1.26 yards per route run pegged him as much less efficient than Justin Watson or Wan’Dale Robinson. Nonetheless, he’s the identical man who might take over whole Huge Ten video games at Ohio State, so it will be silly to write down him off after an honest however unremarkable rookie 12 months.
Getting Cross and Lucas again to full well being after the 2 mixed for 20 video games final season can be a boon to that passing sport as properly. And if Macdonald wish to set up the run, Walker and Charbonnet stay fresh-legged tailbacks, neither of whom is even 24 years outdated but.
Smith ought to, on the very least, return to 2023 kind — once more, a man who was one of many league’s high 10 most effective quarterbacks when the sport mattered. Getting his two rising beginning tackles on the sphere on the identical time ought to solely assist, although dropping Damien Lewis at guard and changing him with Laken Tomlinson might create points.
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The desk has been set for Macdonald to achieve his first season in Seattle. The offense isn’t fairly in set-it-and-forget-it mode, however ought to be stable sufficient to maintain the Seahawks in playoff rivalry. The place he’ll must show himself is on the defensive facet of the ball, as his new crew has a stable mixture of younger expertise and older gamers seeking to stand out. Previously, Macdonald has been capable of maximize these returns, however that solely covers two seasons beneath a longtime head coach in John Harbaugh.
The larger concern is, properly, the remainder of the NFC West is a shark tank. The San Francisco 49ers stay stacked and hungry. The Los Angeles Rams wanted half a season to rebuild right into a playoff crew. The Arizona Cardinals are placing down roots as a future contender (it’s nonetheless a 12 months or two away, nevertheless it’s starting to come back into focus).
It’s doable Macdonald performs his playing cards proper in 12 months one and nonetheless finally ends up proper the place Carroll left at 9 wins. It’s doable issues worsen. However the mixture of roster and head coach counsel there’s extra causes to be optimistic concerning the Seahawks this fall than pessimistic. Once you’re changing a legend on the sideline, that’s about all for which you’ll be able to hope.
