The graceful, lefty stroke has aged like high-quality wine by baseball historical past. Ben Rice is likely one of the newest examples of a left-handed hitter whose swing alone makes him enjoyable to observe. Shifting by the Yankees’ system as a bat-first catcher, Rice’s explosive minor league efficiency the final 12 months pressured his identify into the massive league dialog when first baseman Anthony Rizzo landed on the injured listing with a fractured arm.
Even earlier than Rizzo went down, Rice was mixing in additional time at first base at Triple-A this season. That’s the place the organizational want was, and his expertise weren’t fairly suited long-term at catcher anyway. As you’d count on, his protection at his new place has been a piece in progress, and the identical is true for the remainder of his recreation. On the plate, Rice is experiencing the identical ups and downs that almost all rookies do: Pitchers are determining how greatest to assault him, and he’s studying the best way to make changes on the massive league degree.
With a 102 wRC+ over 142 plate appearances, Rice has been formidable so far, however a lot of that is because of his scorching streak that got here alongside along with his call-up. Throughout his first 19 video games, he slashed .267/.348/.567 with 5 dwelling runs, together with the three in opposition to the Pink Sox on July 6, and a 154 wRC+ over 69 plate appearances. Throughout his 18 video games (73 PA) since then, he’s batting .143/.247/.283 with two homers and a 53 wRC+. Regardless of that current skid, ZiPS nonetheless believes in Rice, giving him a projected 110 wRC+ for the remainder of the season. No projections come with out uncertainty, after all, however there’s a purpose why ZiPS – and different projection techniques – are assured the under-the-radar prospect can proceed to be above common on the plate. Let’s get into it.
Heading into 2023, Rice was a 24-year-old prospect in A-ball. Regardless of good offensive performances in 2021 and ’22, he wasn’t the kind of participant many have been anticipating to rise by 4 ranges over the course of a 12 months, but that’s precisely what he did. With selective aggression and a knack for creating pure loft in his swing, Rice dominated minor league pitching from the second the 2023 season began by when he obtained his main league call-up this June. The good minor league efficiency is a key purpose for his strong projection. He walked so much, didn’t strike out an excessive amount of, and hit for energy. Even with out the gaudy total manufacturing, the bones of which have continued throughout his seven weeks within the massive leagues.
His 84th percentile SEAGER is implausible for any hitter, not to mention a rookie. He assaults hittable pitches at a excessive clip and has nice really feel for the strike zone, chasing beneath 20% of the time. Though his numbers within the minors advised his swing selections have been above common, this efficiency in his first chunk of enjoying time has strengthened that he can maintain it up at this degree.
As he’s struggled over his previous 18 video games, he’s nonetheless taking his walks (12.3%) and the standard of his plate appearances continues to be robust. It’s a pleasant ability to fall again on by ruts like this. The slumps are going to occur, however swing selections and plate self-discipline are foundational items that may assist hitters emerge from tough stretches. Earlier than diving deeper into Rice’s struggles and potential weaknesses, let’s spherical out the opposite piece that enhances his swing selections so nicely: his swing.
Like I stated initially of this piece, Rice’s swing has that look to it. It’s low effort, however nonetheless adequate to provide pull facet raise. It’s a bit steep, however has sufficient adjustability to not get dominated by excessive warmth. We’re nonetheless coping with a small pattern right here, however Rice has proven some constructive indicators within the high third of the strike zone regardless of his .279 wOBA up there. He doesn’t chase above his palms usually and may even get on high of pitches sufficient to drive them. Listed here are some swings with a wide range of outcomes:
The very first thing that stands out to me is Rice’s base. All through every of those swings, whiff or barrel, his ft are securely within the floor. A secure base is the first step to having an adjustable swing. As a way to create pull facet raise on pitches in numerous elements of the strike zone, your ft should be safe sufficient to provide your higher physique an opportunity to regulate. On the whiffs, it seems like Rice is only a bit late to get his ft within the floor, inflicting him to hover additional over his again hip and fail to get his bat on a really perfect path to make contact. That’ll be one thing to concentrate to going ahead as pitchers look to vary his eye degree and power him to cowl each the highest and backside of the zone.
However as I stated, when Rice’s ft are cemented within the floor, he’s in an important place to create hard-hit raise. By means of 88 batted balls, Rice is operating an almost 40% sweet-spot fee. As a reminder, that quantity is the share of batted balls which might be hit between eight and 32 levels. It’s your greatest alternative to hit barrels. Due to this, Rice’s contact high quality has been excellent up to now; each his .463 xwOBACON and 19.3% barrel fee can be among the many league leaders if he have been a professional hitter. Mainly, when Rice has made contact, the outcomes have been favorable. That mixed along with his selective aggression and unwillingness to go away the strike zone has led to a .375 xwOBA. That’s an enormous hole from the place his .310 wOBA sits, however bear in mind, that is nonetheless a small pattern and the hole isn’t resulting from unhealthy luck alone. Rice has actually struggled in opposition to the sluggish stuff up to now.
In opposition to breaking balls and offspeed pitches, Rice has hit .171 and .125, respectively. The anticipated numbers don’t look unhealthy (.385 xwOBA and .296 xwOBA) however his efficiency in opposition to righty offspeed pitches and lefty breaking balls is regarding. On a league-wide degree, left-handed batters have a .270 wOBA and 29.7% whiff fee in opposition to right-handed offspeed pitches. Rice’s wOBA sits at .250 and his whiff fee is extraordinarily excessive (40.5%). With left-on-left sliders, the whiffs haven’t been as unhealthy within the small pattern (21.4%), however he hasn’t managed any good contact in opposition to them (.080 wOBA).
From a pitch sequencing perspective, right-handed changeups or splitters and left-handed breaking balls are perfect for neutralizing lefty batters. They’re the right pitches to take Rice off the heater. If he doesn’t be taught to enhance in opposition to these pitches, then he’s most likely going to wrestle within the massive leagues. I do know, it’s fairly easy! Let’s check out a number of the swings to see what’s happening:
So the massive query right here: Can Rice be adjustable sufficient to cease swinging over these pitches? Within the first clip, he confirmed a capability to decelerate and make contact with a low changeup, whereas within the fourth one, he fouled off a well-located breaking ball. However these are only a two examples. In opposition to each of those pitch-type-handedness combos, Rice’s outcomes have left a lot to want. He’s in an adjustment interval the place pitchers are daring him to show he can take totally different swings and skim totally different speeds within the zone.
Regardless of the poor performances, I don’t suppose Rice’s swings have seemed all that unhealthy after watching each single swing he’s taken in opposition to these pitches this 12 months. Evaluating hitting isn’t all visible, however it’s signal to see batters keep balanced once they swing as an alternative of getting utterly fooled.
Contemplating Rice’s above-average swing selections and the truth that it hasn’t been visually regarding, I’m truly bullish on his potential improvement in opposition to these pitches. Plus, the Yankees have began defending him a bit in opposition to lefties with good breaking balls anyway. Over the last two weeks, DJ LeMahieu has began at first base over Rice in opposition to Cristopher Sánchez, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana. Rice has nonetheless had alternatives in opposition to left-handed relievers occasionally, however supervisor Aaron Boone appears to be making an attempt to stop the younger hitter from getting uncovered in tough matchups.
By way of the remainder of this season, I’m assured Rice can come by on that 110 ZiPS projection if he retains up his method and continues to create the kind of injury he has on his batted balls. There are holes are in his profile, however his strengths are compelling and must be sufficient to carry up his offensive efficiency, particularly in opposition to right-handed pitching.
When Rice was on his heater, it was simple to dream that he may very well be the Yankees’ subsequent nice lefty-swinging first baseman for years to return. However in actuality, he’s not prone to be a famous person slugger. As a substitute, the chances are in his favor to be 10-15% higher than the common hitter. And in a lineup that already has elite offensive manufacturing on the high, that’s all of the Yankees want from him. As he works by his struggles, it’ll be essential to see some type of adjustment, whether or not bodily or psychological, in opposition to righty offspeed pitches and lefty breaking balls. Nevertheless, there is no such thing as a denying {that a} hitter with nice plate self-discipline and the pure means to drag the ball within the air is anyone who can stick round within the massive leagues and have success on the plate.
