It’s been a very good week for the Padres. As typical, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was busy forward of the commerce deadline, and whereas this 12 months’s additions weren’t as eye-catching because the 2022 commerce for Juan Soto — what on earth presumably could possibly be? — Preller vastly improved a middling bullpen and moreover fortified a skinny rotation, rattling the price of the prospects dealt alongside the way in which. In the meantime, the Padres elevated their possibilities of reaching the playoffs by taking a pair of video games from the Dodgers in San Diego, wins that not solely pulled them nearer to first place than they’ve been since early Could, but in addition clinched them the season collection between the 2 groups, giving them the potential tiebreaker in the event that they have been to complete with the identical document as Los Angeles. All of this, together with the truth that the Padres have one of many league’s best remaining schedules, provides them their greatest shot at pulling off an NL West upset since Preller took the reins late within the 2014 season.
On Tuesday, hours after the staff added relievers Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins and starter Martín Pérez from the Pirates, the Padres rallied to beat the 5 first-inning runs that the Dodgers held on starter Matt Waldron. Down 5-3 coming into the underside of the ninth, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill each homered off Blake Treinen, and after Robert Suarez buzzsawed by the Dodgers on 10 pitches within the prime of the tenth, Donovan Solano’s bases-loaded single plated the profitable run. On Wednesday, the Padres tagged Clayton Kershaw for seven runs (three earned) in his second begin since getting back from shoulder surgical procedure; San Diego even snapped Kershaw’s main league document of 423 consecutive begins with a strikeout.
The wins gave the Padres a 9-1 document over their final 10 video games; they strung collectively a season-high seven-game profitable streak towards the Guardians, Nationals, and Orioles from July 20–27, a span that included Dylan Stop’s no-hitter on July 25. With a 13-9 document for July on the heels of a 16-11 Could and 15-13 June, San Diego has now put collectively profitable information in three straight months, one thing it did not do final 12 months. (That staff couldn’t even handle back-to-back profitable months.) What’s extra, the Padres despatched the Dodgers to their first shedding month (11-13) since April 2018 and trimmed the division result in 4.5 video games, the smallest it’s been since Could 4, which coincidentally was the day they traded for Luis Arraez.
So, are the Padres for actual? They entered Friday with a 59-51 document, one sport behind the Braves (59-49) for the NL’s prime Wild Card spot however solely a half-game forward of the Diamondbacks (58-51) and a sport forward of the Mets (57-51). But it’s essential to level out that this has been a streaky staff all season, one which’s struggled to flee the gravitational pull of .500. Cherrypicking a number of dates, the Padres have been 9-9 on April 14, 18-18 on Could 4, 28-28 on Could 26, 35-35 on June 10, 40-40 on June 21, and 50-50 on July 19 earlier than occurring their present jag. They even hid one other 9-1 run in that forest of .500 information, from June 19–29; that lifted them from 37-40 to 46-41. Examine their trajectory so far to that of the Braves:
The take-home level is that the Braves have been comfortably above .500 all season lengthy, whereas the Padres not often have been. Previous to June 26, their eighty fifth sport of the season, they completed the day additional than two video games away from .500 in both route simply 5 instances, then slipped again in that zone from July 10–21.
I do suppose there are causes to be optimistic concerning the Padres going ahead. They’ve spent many of the season underperforming their projected profitable percentages, generally by about 30 factors, however their present .536 mark is simply 4 factors shy of their .540 Pythagenpat and 7 factors shy of their .543 BaseRuns mark. Whereas they’ve been with out Fernando Tatis Jr. since June 21 as a result of a stress response in his proper femur, the remainder of their lineup has rounded into form. For the primary 4 weeks of the season, Machado was confined to designated hitter obligation whereas he continued to recuperate from October surgical procedure to restore the extensor tendon in his proper elbow. Supervisor Mike Shildt primarily used light-hitting Tyler Wade as his third baseman, with Graham Pauley and the extra productive Eguy Rosario getting time as properly. The group hit simply .228/.291/.316 (79 wRC+) in that span, and Machado himself hit simply .241/.293/.361 (89 wRC+) by the tip of Could, however he’s raked at a extra consultant .298/.347/.517 (141 wRC+) clip since, with 11 of his 16 dwelling runs coming previously two months, together with two on Tuesday night time.
In the meantime, Xander Bogaerts hit simply .212/.265/.316 (68 wRC+) earlier than struggling a fracture in his left shoulder whereas diving for a ball on Could 24. Since returning to the lineup on July 12, he’s been completely on fireplace (.453/.464/.623, 206 wRC+), amassing a number of hits in eight out of 13 video games and going hitless simply as soon as; the spree has lifted his season wRC+ to 99. Arraez has hit for a 109 wRC+ whereas splitting time between first and DH, Donovan Solano, one other early-Could addition, has hit for a 121 wRC+ since becoming a member of the staff, and each Ha-Seong Kim (102 wRC+) and Jake Cronenworth (109 wRC+) have been above common as properly.
The one place the place the Padres aren’t getting better-than-average manufacturing of late is the David Peralta/Bryce Johnson platoon in proper subject. Tatis has been cleared for mild baseball exercise however has no timeline but for his return, and whereas Preller couldn’t provide one on Tuesday, he did say, “Each report I’ve gotten has been actually optimistic.”
Preller’s large focus forward of the deadline was in fortifying a bullpen that at present ranks tenth within the NL with a 4.07 ERA and fifth with a 3.74 FIP. Scott, arguably the very best nearer and greatest lefty obtainable on the deadline, posted a 1.18 ERA and three.25 FIP with a 29.1% strikeout charge in 45.2 innings for the Marlins, whereas righty Jason Adam, acquired from the Rays on Monday, put up a 2.49 ERA and three.36 FIP with a 27.8% strikeout charge in 47 innings earlier than the commerce. With Suaraz doing simply advantageous because the nearer, Scott and Adam have slotted into setup roles, bumping the remainder of the staff’s relievers down within the pecking order, with Hoeing (2.70 ERA and three.26 FIP in 30 innings for the Marlins) taking up because the lengthy man. As ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez famous, Scott, Adam, Suarez, and the earlier pair of setup males, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon, have mixed to carry hitters to a .183/.260/.285 slash line. To make room for the newcomers, Stephen Kolek was positioned on the IL with elbow tendinitis, Logan Gillaspie was optioned to Triple-A El Paso, Enyel De Los Santos was traded to the Yankees, and Austin Davis (the lone lefty of the group) was designated for task; these 4 pitchers had mixed for -0.2 WAR over 112.1 innings, with Kolek the one one within the black. In order that’s a major improve.
If there’s a criticism to be fabricated from Preller’s deadline efficiency — past the same old I-can’t-believe-he-traded-all-those-prospects ones and his not making hypothetical offers for gamers who proved out of attain for each staff (hey, Luis Robert Jr.) — it’s that he didn’t do extra for the rotation. Stop has been glorious, as has Michael King following a tough first month, and Waldron has proven that he and his knuckleball are greater than a novelty act. Nonetheless, the present beginning 5 has been with out each Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove since each landed on the IL on June 1. Pérez, an All-Star two years in the past for the Rangers, has reverted to his journeyman type, pitching to a 5.20 ERA and 4.95 FIP in 83 innings for the Pirates. He can flip in 5 innings each fifth day, which is one thing Adam Mazur — who was traded to the Marlins within the Scott deal — wasn’t doing; the 23-year-old rookie totaled 33.2 innings with a 7.49 ERA and 6.22 FIP over eight begins, solely two of which lasted longer than 4.2 innings. For the brief time period, Pérez raises the ground, however he’s not any individual who ought to take the ball in October.
Darvish, who posted a 3.20 ERA and three.52 FIP by his first 11 begins, was initially sidelined by a groin pressure and hasn’t pitched since. His return was slowed by a bout of elbow irritation in late June, after which on July 6 he was positioned on the restricted listing as he left the Padres for what the staff defined was “a private matter involving his household.” The Padres hope he’ll return this season however at present there’s no timetable; Shildt stated on the time that Darvish’s absence could be indefinite and provided little extra in the way in which of particulars. “Clearly we wish to respect his privateness. He desires to ensure all people is aware of he’s bodily in a great place. He’s nonetheless engaged on his craft,” stated Shildt, including, “The first factor… that we wish to do is simply ensure that Yu feels beloved and supported by his Padre household.”
Musgrove was sidelined by proper elbow and triceps discomfort, however in contrast to Darvish, he was not pitching properly, as his 5.66 ERA and 5.35 FIP attest. It was his second time on the IL in as many months, as he missed about half of Could as a result of elbow irritation; quickly sufficient, the underlying trigger — a bone spur and a bone bruise in his proper elbow — was found, and he acquired injections of cortisone and platelet-rich plasma. He’s scheduled to exit on a rehab task on Sunday, but it surely’s an open query as as to whether he’ll resemble the top-of-the-rotation model of himself when he returns to the Padres.
For as flimsy because the rotation has appeared on paper with out Darvish and Musgrove, and with Randy Vásquez filling in one of many different spots whereas averaging lower than 5 innings per flip himself, San Diego starters have posted the NL’s second-lowest ERA (3.89) and fourth-lowest FIP (3.83) because the begin of June; their 4.6 WAR is second in that span, a fairly spectacular feat. Preller reportedly explored trades for Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, and even outdated buddy Blake Snell, however with prime prospects Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries stated to be off-limits, it doesn’t sound as if discussions went deep, and anyway, from that group solely Flaherty and Kikuchi have been dealt.
That the previous went to the Dodgers and rated as the uncommon influence transfer this deadline is a possible drawback for the Padres. Certainly, the Dodgers didn’t sit nonetheless, moreover including Tommy Edman, Amed Rosario, and Michael Kopech, all of whom no less than assist the staff shore up depth that’s been compromised by a slew of accidents and underperformances. In Dan Szymborski’s post-deadline ZiPS check-in, the Padres elevated their odds of creating the playoffs by 3.2% (from 59.7% to 62.9%), however the Dodgers did so by 2.7% (from 93.6% to 96.3%). Contemplating that the Dodgers are those in first place and have a better potential path by the postseason ought to they cling on to the division lead, their odds of profitable the World Collection went up by 2.4% whereas these of San Diego fell by 0.1%. In the meantime, the Mets and Braves outgained the Padres by each measures.
As for the gamers Preller did commerce, 2022 first-round decide Dylan Lesko, a 20-year-old righty who was despatched to Tampa Bay within the Adam deal, was one in all simply 4 50 FV prospects dealt by Eric Longenhagen’s reckoning, whereas the 23-year-old Mazur and 20-year-old Robby Snelling, who each went to Miami, are 40+ FV prospects. Lesko and Snelling are too removed from the majors to assist this 12 months’s squad, and Mazur fell brief in his alternative. Preller, who has a contract by 2026, continues to be considered being on the recent seat given final 12 months’s crash and burn, so he wasn’t able to attend. Moreover, he’s not one given to prospect-hugging anyway. Through Gonzalez:
“One factor we’ve by no means been afraid of — we’re going to commerce gamers,” Preller stated. “I don’t know philosophically if it’s proper, fallacious — we’re going to commerce gamers, they’re going to point out up within the large leagues… and are going to do actually good issues. But when we get what we’re trying to do, and it really works for us this 12 months and over the following three to 5 years, we’re content material with that.
“Billy Beane… would all the time inform me, ‘I’ve traded All-Stars, MVPs, Cy Younger winners, and 20 years later we’ve accomplished lots of profitable and we’re nonetheless on this spot.’ We take it like we’re going to commerce gifted gamers; that’s a praise to our scouting group, actually, and our growth group.”
It could work out for Preller this 12 months. Per our Playoff Odds, the Padres’ 71.6% probability at reaching the postseason and 14.4% probability of profitable the division are each larger than they’ve been since mid-Could 2023, and a fast perusal of our historic graphs reveals that they haven’t had division odds this excessive this late within the season since Preller took over in August 2014. Certain, final 12 months’s loaded squad may need been extra eye-catching due to Soto and Snell, however this one has an actual probability to make good on all of that wheeling and dealing.
