I spent the previous six weeks unrolling my divisional predictions for the 2024 baseball season.
Now it’s time to take the following step, shifting as much as the league stage. Let’s begin with the American League.
Right here, as soon as once more, are the anticipated champions of the AL’s three divisions:
My predictions, as I’ve beforehand defined, are primarily based on a comparability of every present membership with 1,288 major-league groups because the period of free company started in 1976. I recognized the 50 closest matches (CMs) for each present-day membership, after which examined the next information of these groups. (Click on right here for particulars.)
Thirty-eight of Toronto’s 50 CMs, for instance, topped .500 of their subsequent seasons, 22 certified for the playoffs, seven gained league titles, and two gained the World Collection. I assigned level totals to those successive steps, starting from a single level for a plus-.500 mark to 4 for a world title.
The Blue Jays’ ensuing rating of 111 factors was not solely the very best within the AL East, however the most effective in the complete American League.
The league’s anticipated runners-up are the Tampa Bay Rays, who’re predicted to win a wild-card berth within the playoffs, and the Astros, the AL West’s leaders.
Under are the anticipated AL rankings for 2024, primarily based on my historic evaluation. You’ll see every membership’s prediction rating, its anticipated place within the divisional standings, its 2024 playoff standing, the outcomes for its 50 closest matches, and its 2023 report. The latter is adopted by the membership’s successful share and postseason abbreviations (if relevant) of P for a playoff berth, L for a league championship, and W for a world title.
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2024 prediction factors: 111
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Forecast for 2024 common season: First place in AL East
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Sure, division champion
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 22 playoff qualifiers, 7 league titles, 2 world championships
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2023 report: 89-73 (.549, P)
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2024 prediction factors: 105
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Second place in AL East
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Sure, wild-card qualifier
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 18 playoff qualifiers, 7 league titles, 4 world championships
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2023 report: 99-63 (.611, P)
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2024 prediction factors: 100
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Forecast for 2024 common season: First place in AL West
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Sure, division champion
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 21 playoff qualifiers, 5 league titles, 2 world championships
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2023 report: 90-72 (.556, P)
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2024 prediction factors: 100
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Third place in AL East
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Sure, wild-card qualifier
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 20 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 3 world championships
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2023 report: 101-61 (.623, P)
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2024 prediction factors: 83
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Fourth place in AL East
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Sure, wild-card qualifier
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 14 playoff qualifiers, 5 league titles, 3 world championships
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2023 report: 82-80 (.506)
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2024 prediction factors: 79
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Second place in AL West
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 17 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 0 world championships
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2023 report: 88-74 (.543)
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2024 prediction factors: 77
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Third place in AL West
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 13 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 2 world championships
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2023 report: 90-72 (.556, WLP)
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2024 prediction factors: 71
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Forecast for 2024 common season: First place in AL Central
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: Sure, division champion
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 14 playoff qualifiers, 3 league titles, 1 world championship
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2023 report: 87-75 (.537, P)
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2024 prediction factors: 58
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Fifth place in AL East
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 9 playoff qualifiers, 4 league titles, 2 world championships
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2023 report: 78-84 (.481)
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2024 prediction factors: 49
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Second place in AL Central
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 10 playoff qualifiers, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
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2023 report: 76-86 (.469)
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2024 prediction factors: 38
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Fourth place in AL West
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 6 playoff qualifiers, 2 league titles, 1 world championship
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2023 report: 73-89 (.451)
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2024 prediction factors: 35
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Third place in AL Central
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 1 world championship
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2023 report: 61-101 (.377)
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2024 prediction factors: 32
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Fourth place in AL Central
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 7 playoff qualifiers, 1 league title, 0 world championships
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2023 report: 78-84 (.481)
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2024 prediction factors: 11
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Fifth place in AL Central
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 1 playoff qualifier, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
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2023 report: 56-106 (.346)
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2024 prediction factors: 10
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Forecast for 2024 common season: Fifth place in AL West
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Qualify for 2024 playoffs: No
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Outcomes for 50 closest matches: 1 playoff qualifier, 0 league titles, 0 world championships
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2023 report: 50-112 (.309)
