The sector for the $1 million, Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes Saturday at Monmouth Park accommodates six winners of stakes races for 3-year-olds amongst its eight entrants. Itemizing them so as of earnings thus far, we begin with Dornoch ($1.75 million), who drew the rail place within the beginning gate and comes off an upset win within the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes Introduced by NYRA Bets final month. He additionally gained the Grade 2 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in March.
Fierceness ($1.7 million) disillusioned when fifteenth because the post-time favourite within the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve when final seen, however he gained the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Introduced by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa by 13 ½ lengths previous to that. Timberlake ($1.1 million) rounds out the trio of millionaires entered within the Haskell, which is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional. Timberlake gained a Kentucky Derby prep race again in February, the profitable Grade 2 Insurgent Stakes. Mindframe proved he belongs at this Grade 1 degree when developing a half-length brief to Dornoch within the Belmont Stakes after making the lead early within the stretch. Tuscan Sky was visually spectacular when drawing off to a 6 ¾-length win within the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth final month and is one other who seems able to racing competitively on this discipline. Sea Streak gained the Lengthy Department Stakes at Monmouth in Could earlier than a fifth-place effort within the Pegasus, and hopes to reverse his fortune. Jasper’s Satisfaction tries stakes firm for the primary time, whereas Simply Step On It not too long ago gained an allowance-level race in Pennsylvania. Each seem to have their work minimize out for them on this gifted discipline.
Evaluation and prime contenders:
Though Dornoch was the highest choice on these pages final month within the Belmont Stakes, and might win once more on Saturday, I really feel Tuscan Sky has only a bit extra likelihood to win and will supply higher worth for our wagering {dollars} as nicely.
Contemplating there are a selection of horses within the Haskell discipline which have run their greatest races on the lead – or no additional again than third within the early levels – I see two potential early tempo eventualities which profit Tuscan Sky, in addition to Dornoch. Inversely, neither state of affairs advantages Fierceness in any respect, and I’ll take a stand towards him.
The primary of the 2 early tempo eventualities has Tuscan Sky going for the lead from the beginning from the no. 3 submit place, with Dornoch sitting second simply as he did behind Seize the Gray within the Belmont Stakes. In that race, Mindframe took the lead by a head over Dornoch with an eighth of a mile to run, earlier than Dornoch reasserted himself the remainder of the best way to prevail by a half-length. Underneath this Haskell tempo state of affairs, Tuscan Sky could have a slight edge as he earned a career-best 111 Equibase Velocity Determine final month within the Pegasus Stakes, which I imagine was the results of blinkers happening for the primary time. Tuscan Sky wears them once more for the Haskell.
The opposite early tempo state of affairs consists of Fierceness going for the lead from the no. 5 submit, as that’s the manner he gained the Florida Derby in March with a 110 Equibase determine. He additionally acted like a “want the lead” sort within the Kentucky Derby when he vied for the lead by the opening quarter-mile earlier than giving manner badly. In all three of his wins, Fierceness has gained when in entrance by no less than two lengths with an eighth of a mile to go, and that’s unlikely to be the case on this race.
If this second state of affairs takes place, taking on second behind Fierceness at first ought to be Dornoch, contemplating jockey Luis Saez is an aggressive rider and gained’t quit the rail place. This places Tuscan Sky in the same place to the one Dornoch was early within the Belmont when stalking Seize the Gray earlier than taking on late within the race. Contemplating that each of those eventualities have Tuscan Sky in first, second or third early, after which contemplating how he prolonged his lead from three lengths to just about seven within the closing eighth of a mile within the Pegasus (incomes a 111 determine which was sooner than the 106 determine Dornoch earned within the Belmont), Tuscan Sky will get slight choice within the Haskell.
Dornoch earned a 102 Equibase Velocity Determine within the Fountain of Youth Stakes, after which as I argued in my Belmont Stakes evaluation, his subsequent efforts within the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and Kentucky Derby might be ignored as a result of he was requested to take again within the former then was shuffled again and checked within the latter, with no probability to be on or close to the early lead. When aggressive techniques had been as soon as once more used within the Belmont Stakes, Dornoch returned to the shape proven not solely within the Fountain of Youth but additionally final fall when profitable the Remsen Stakes on the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Haskell. Projecting additional enchancment, Dornoch might run quick sufficient Saturday to earn a 110 determine which is on par with the 111 determine Tuscan Sky earned in his most up-to-date race, so if Tuscan Sky doesn’t enhance as anticipated, we might be in for an exciting race.
Then there’s Mindframe, who regardless of solely having run twice thus far previous to the Belmont appeared like a possible winner with an eighth of a mile to run. That mark the place Mindframe led within the Belmont is the place the Haskell ends, and as he improved from a 99 determine in his second profession begin to a 105 within the Belmont, Mindframe is one other contender that’s projected to run as quick as each Tuscan Sky and Dornoch. Truly, it’s attainable Mindframe has much more upside given that is solely his fourth profession begin and third in a two-turn race.
Two of the horses some could contemplate contenders however I don’t are Fierceness and Timberlake. The explanations for taking a stand towards Fierceness had been acknowledged above – however in case it wasn’t clear, I really feel he has no path to victory from off the tempo and there are three horses who all seem sooner than he’s. Timberlake ran his greatest two-turn race ever when profitable the Insurgent Stakes in February off practically 4 months away, incomes a 105 determine. However, the Insurgent turned out to be what is named a “damaging key race” from which not a single horse gained of their subsequent begins. Even when Timberlake can repeat his Insurgent effort, it’s doubtless not ok to win.
The remainder of the sector, with their greatest Equibase Velocity Figures, is Jasper’s Satisfaction (93), Simply Step On It (91) and Sea Streak (105).
Win Contenders in choice order:
Tuscan Sky
Dornoch
Mindframe
