The 2024 Substitute-Degree Killers: Second Base

Right now, we flip our consideration to the second base Killers. Whereas nonetheless specializing in groups that meet the free definition of contenders (a .500 document or Playoff Odds of not less than 9.5%), and which have gotten about 0.6 WAR or much less out of a place to date — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I’ve additionally integrated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for a further perspective. Typically that will recommend that the crew will clear the bar by a big margin; as you possibly can see by the desk under, 4 of the six groups listed right here undertaking to obtain greater than a win from their present solid of second base choices. Even so, I’ve included them right here as a result of the crew’s efficiency at that spot is value a glance, and the incumbent might not seem like the most suitable choice.

Notably in gentle of these projections, I don’t anticipate each crew to exit and monitor down an improve earlier than the July 30 deadline, although I’ll word that a number of the gamers cited inside for his or her poor efficiency are themselves change-of-scenery candidates; one crew’s downside could also be one other crew’s answer, albeit not essentially a super one. Both means, I’m much less involved with these options – a lot of which have extra transferring elements concerned than a single commerce — than I’m with the issues. Until in any other case indicated, all statistics are by means of Sunday.

Pink Sox

Acquired within the Chris Sale commerce, 23-year-old Vaughn Grissom appeared on monitor to function Boston’s common second baseman, however he battled hamstring soreness early in spring coaching, then suffered a groin pressure that sidelined him all through the Grapefruit League season. He didn’t make his season debut till Could 2, and performed simply 23 video games — with a .148/.207/.160 (1 wRC+) slash line — earlier than being knocked out once more, this time by a proper hamstring pressure.

In his absence inside an infield that’s additionally been destabilized by the accidents to Trevor Story and Triston Casas, Enmanuel Valdez and David Hamilton have executed a lot of the work, with the latter additionally within the shortstop combine with Ceddanne Rafaela. Hamilton has hit a decent .273/.327/.414 (105 wRC+), however Valdez simply .226/.282/.402 (85 wRC+). The Pink Sox are hopeful that Grisson will help them in some unspecified time in the future, however there’s no timetable for him to start out a rehab project. Notably given the crew’s defensive woes up the center — their shortstops have mixed for -10 FRV and -9 DRS, their second baseman -6 FRV and -3 DRS — they may actually use a reliable addition, however they’re reportedly targeted on buying a beginning pitcher and a right-handed energy bat. The guess right here is that they’ll roll with a Hamilton-Rafaela center infield, at finest making a lower-impact depth addition whereas ready for Grissom to supply them an alternate.

Cardinals

Nolan Gorman loved a pleasant breakout final 12 months, clubbing 27 homers and posting a 118 wRC+ in his age-23 season, however like Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar, and Jordan Walker, he was among the many many Cardinals who struggled on the outset of this season. He hit simply .196/.261/.363 by means of the tip of April, chasing 34% of pitches exterior the zone, hanging out 34.2% of the time, and averaging simply 85.5 mph when he made contact. He’s been considerably higher since then, hitting .212/.288/.438 (104 wRC+) with a median exit velo of 89.5 mph, and he’s began July notably scorching, however he now owns the majors’ highest strikeout fee amongst regulars (37.5%) to go along with a .279 on-base share, and his protection, effectively, it’s by no means been his robust swimsuit.

The Cardinals do have alternate options in-house, in that Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman can each play second, however the former is already holding down left discipline, whereas the latter is about to start a rehab project after lacking the complete season to date attributable to irritation in his surgically repaired proper wrist, then spraining an ankle. The crew does even have César Prieto, a lefty-swinging 25-year-old infielder who was acquired from the Orioles in final 12 months’s Jack Flaherty commerce; he’s a 40-FV prospect who ranked fifteenth on the Cardinals’ checklist and is hitting .308/.355/.500 at Triple-A Memphis, however his chase fee there (44.8%) is off the charts, and that’s earlier than dealing with main league pitching. On condition that Edman gained a Gold Glove at second base in 2021 and performed 51 video games there final 12 months whereas additionally seeing time in middle discipline, the almost certainly situation for a change — if the Cardinals do make one, which isn’t a assure — is an outfield reshuffle that brings a type of aforementioned two into the infield, with Gorman both despatched to Triple-A à la Walker or used as a doable commerce chip, albeit a very pricey one given his 4 remaining years of membership management.

Orioles

Primary general prospect Jackson Holliday appeared on monitor to interrupt into the majors on the keystone, however the Orioles surprisingly despatched him all the way down to Triple-A Norfolk regardless of a powerful spring, as an alternative opening the season with Jordan Westburg and Jorge Mateo sharing the place. On April 10, Holliday was recalled, however he went simply 2-for-34 with 18 strikeouts earlier than being demoted two weeks later. He’s hit .273/.442/.471 (144 wRC+) at Norfolk however has been restricted to DH responsibility since getting back from a mid-June bout of elbow irritation.

With Holliday out of the image, the 25-year-old Westburg has hit .271/.318/.496 (129 wRC+) whereas splitting his time between second (with Mateo) and third (with Ramón Urías); for no matter motive, he’s managed only a 100 wRC+ whereas enjoying second, and his protection there was shaky to say the least (-6 DRS, -4 FRV, -2.9 UZR in 284.2 innings). Mateo hasn’t hit a lot (.234/.273/.413, 92 wRC+) however has swiped 13 luggage and performed regular protection. With 24-year-old prospect Connor Norby — who performed second base 4 instances throughout a short cup of espresso in early June — additionally within the combine, and with the Orioles needing pitching, pitching, and extra pitching in the event that they’re to retain their slim division lead, it’s troublesome to see the crew going exterior the group to spruce up second base. Extra seemingly, they provide Holliday one other look when his elbow is prepared. With sufficient heat our bodies to get by, Mateo may expendable, a helpful stopgap/utility participant for one more crew given his velocity and flexibility.

Mariners

Acquired from the Twins in alternate for 4 gamers in late January, Jorge Polanco seems to have left his bat in Minnesota. Like so many different Mariners, the 31-year-old second baseman has struggled mightily on the plate, hitting simply .197/.285/.282 to date; his 69 wRC+ represents a 49-point drop-off from final 12 months. He’s really been even worse these days, managing only a 45 wRC+ in 15 video games since getting back from a four-week absence attributable to a strained proper hamstring. He’s linked for simply eight extra-base hits general; his 6.7% barrel fee is lower than half of final season’s 13.8%, and his strikeout fee has spiked to 32.6%, representing his third straight season of setting a brand new profession excessive. His efficiency in opposition to four-seam fastballs has collapsed, from .291 AVG/.620 SLG to .171 AVG/.243 SLG, together with his exit velocity in opposition to the pitch falling by three ticks and his whiff fee growing 5 share factors, to 21.4%. Defensively, he’s under common in all three main metrics.

When Polanco went down, utilityman Dylan Moore and rookie Ryan Bliss did the majority of the work. Each have simply outhit Polanco, with the 31-year-old Moore batting .211/.313/.404 (107 wRC+) and seeing time at shortstop, third base, in left discipline, and even at first base (the place Ty France made the Killers checklist). The 24-year-old Bliss, chosen within the second spherical out of Auburn by the Diamondbacks in 2021, got here to the Mariners in final 12 months’s Paul Sewald commerce. He’s a 5-foot-6, 165-pound dynamo who “makes impressively onerous contact for a hitter his measurement, and he does so in what seems to be a brief mechanical distance,” as Eric Longenhagen wrote whereas rating him thirteenth as a 40-FV prospect on the Mariners’ checklist simply final week. Bliss has hit .247/.382/.445 (108 WRC+) at Triple-A Tacoma and .224/.297/.362 (92 wRC+) in 66 PA to date for the Mariners, albeit with a 30.3% strikeout fee.

Given the extremity of Polanco’s collapse, it is sensible for the Mariners to take a more in-depth take a look at each alternate options, although a much bigger bat would definitely be welcome in a lineup that’s second-to-last within the American League in scoring. If president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto is aggressive, an improve might be alongside the traces of Rays’ Brandon Lowe (who has two inexpensive membership choices remaining), the Reds’ Jonathan India, or the Marlins’ Jazz Chisholm Jr. (each of whom have two years of management remaining).

Mets

I touched upon this one the opposite day in my roundup of the worst defenses on contenders. Jeff McNeil has had some excellent seasons for the Mets, making two All-Star groups and successful a batting title, however he’s now 32 years outdated and has slipped from a 141 wRC+ in 2022 to 100 final 12 months to 73 (.216/.276/.314) this 12 months. With the banning of the shift, he’s pulling the ball with larger frequency, however the tradeoff hasn’t been worthwhile as a result of he will get below so many balls; his wRC+ to his pull aspect has dropped from 205 in 2022 to 128 final 12 months and 112 this 12 months, which isn’t useful when the foremost league common is 174. His 1.6% barrel fee lands him within the first percentile — he just lately went six weeks between barrels — and his 30.2% hard-hit fee is within the thirteenth percentile. Defensively, he has -3 FRV and -2 DRS in 81 video games at second base. His offensive issues are much more obvious when he’s utilized in an outfield nook.

On Could 31, the Mets recalled 34-year-old Jose Iglesias, a former All-Star (2015) who performed for half a dozen groups from 2018–22 however was out of the majors final season. By no means a participant for whom offense was a calling card, he’s nonetheless hit .380/.417/.582 (184 wRC+), a slash line so scorching that it’s virtually comical given his glove-first popularity. His common exit velocity is simply 86.9 mph, however his 40.3% candy spot would place someplace across the ninetieth percentile if he had sufficient batted ball occasions to qualify. His three homers in 79 PA matches the overall he hit in 467 PA with the Rockies in 2022. Although the small-sample defensive metrics are within the crimson, the Mets are 21-9 with him within the lineup, which these days has been extra usually than McNeil — he’s began 9 of the crew’s previous 16 video games at second and two at third base. What’s extra, he’s bought one other type of hit single in “OMG,” a pop tune that he’s going to carry out on the Residence Run Derby on Monday evening.

Logically talking, there’s no means this could proceed. Then once more, Iglesias is clearly residing a charmed life, and even his profession .281/.321/.386 (89 wRC+) line is stronger than McNeil’s bat this 12 months. With McNeil below contract for 2 extra seasons, it appears unlikely the Mets will make a wholesale change, but when they’re searching for a technique to minimize payroll, they may eat a few of his remaining wage and ship him elsewhere for a change of surroundings.

Yankees

The crew in Queens hardly has a monopoly on the underperforming second basemen throughout the New York metropolitan space. Gleyber Torres has been one thing of an enigma ever since he bopped 38 homers in 2019, his age-22 season; he’s had good seasons, however his 2021 was mediocre (9 HR, 96 wRC+, 1.4 WAR), and he’s had sufficient ups and downs that the Yankees by no means bothered to lock him up with a long-term extension. Now he’s in his stroll 12 months, and that call appears justifiable given his .230/.307/.347 (90 wRC+) slash line and 0.6 WAR. He dug himself a very deep gap in April (.220/.295/.254, 64 wRC+) and didn’t hit his first homer till Could 2. Although he’s managed a 103 wRC+ for the reason that begin of Could, his 6.3% barrel fee is his lowest since 2020, and his 34.9% hard-hit fee is a profession low. In the meantime, his 22.6% strikeout fee matches his highest mark since his 2018 rookie marketing campaign, and his -4 DRS and -3.4 UZR stick out like a sore thumb on a crew whose protection has been one of many majors’ finest.

For all of that, Torres has began 91 of the Yankees’ 98 video games, partially attributable to accidents elsewhere throughout the infield. DJ LeMahieu, who performed 9 video games there final 12 months and 41 in 2022, didn’t make his season debut till Could 28 attributable to a nondisplaced fracture in his proper foot. Jon Berti, who performed 15 video games there final 12 months for the Marlins, has performed simply 16 video games between stints on the IL for groin and calf strains. Oswald Peraza suffered a subscapularis pressure in his proper shoulder in March and was optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre as soon as he rehabbed; his .210/.325/.251 (59 wRC+) in 44 video games isn’t precisely making a case for the 24-year-old former top-50 prospect’s return. Oswaldo Cabrera, who has performed seven video games on the place, has been overexposed whereas getting the majority of the third base responsibility, hitting .238/.288/.341 (80 wRC+) in 234 PA. Jahmai Jones, the one different Yankee to play second, has hit a decent .263/.333/.421 (117 wRC+), albeit in simply 43 PA whereas hanging out 32.6% of the time; provided that he performed extra second base than outfield with the Triple-A associates of the Dodgers and Brewers, it’s unclear what he’s doing on the roster if supervisor Aaron Boone gained’t give him extra of a gap.

Given the Yankees’ lack of productive hitters in addition to Aaron Choose and Juan Soto — Ben Rice is the one non-injured common with a wRC+ of 100 or higher, although Austin Wells is shut (98 wRC+) — this can be a spot the place the Yankees may actually use a bat. A month in the past, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden reported that the crew was concentrating on Gorman, India, and the Twins’ Edouard Julien, all of whom have their warts, however with pitching, first base (the place Anthony Rizzo is injured and Rice fairly inexperienced), and third base additionally issues, the Yankees might attempt to intestine it out with Torres and hope that he figures out the place his energy went.