Historic Traits and Tricks to Determine the 2024 Haskell Stakes Winner

Saturday’s $1 million, Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park is without doubt one of the most essential horse races on the summer season calendar.

Clearly, the wealthy purse is a draw, as is the actual fact the Haskell awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the $7 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Basic through the Breeders’ Cup Problem Collection. However equally essential is the Haskell’s standing as the primary massive post-Triple Crown goal for high 3-year-old Thoroughbreds. A victory within the Haskell — after competing nicely within the Triple Crown — can place a horse firmly within the hunt for a year-end championship within the division.

For the reason that Haskell usually attracts a robust discipline, selecting the winner can seem to be an imposing job. However dig into the historical past of the Haskell, and also you’ll uncover previous winners have so much in widespread. Discovering horses on this yr’s discipline who match the profile of earlier winners is a viable technique to slender down the contenders and choose the profitable horse.

Listed below are seven suggestions and tendencies to assist your handicapping:

Early velocity is useful, however pacesetters hardly ever win

Horses with some extent of early velocity commonly shine within the Haskell, as 15 of the final 20 winners had been positioned inside 2 1/2 lengths of the lead after the primary half-mile.

However this doesn’t imply front-runners dominate. On the contrary, solely two Haskell winners within the final 19 years (Genuine and Bayern) led the race after half a mile. Sticking inside hanging vary of the tempo is helpful, however you don’t essentially wish to be the one setting the tempo.

The dominant coach is Bob Baffert

When Corridor of Fame coach Bob Baffert begins a horse within the Haskell, you’ll be able to assume that horse will document a top-three end. Since 2000, Baffert has began 15 horses within the Haskell. 9 of them (60%) completed first, whereas 5 (33%) completed second and one (7%) completed third.

Nevertheless, it’s essential to notice Baffert’s horses will be divided into two classes with totally different success charges. Baffert trainees who competed in a number of Triple Crown races (the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes, and the Belmont Stakes) have gone 6-for-8 (75%) within the Haskell, whereas those who skipped the Triple Crown have gone 3-for-7 (43%).

Triple Crown alumni have a bonus

Increasing on the statistic above, the Haskell is commonly gained by horses who competed in a number of of the Triple Crown races. Alumni from the spring classics have gained 16 of the final 20 editions of the Haskell, in addition to 25 of the final 30.

Keep away from betting on sprinters

It’s extremely unusual for sprinters who’ve but to race one mile or farther to win the Haskell; in actual fact, each Haskell champion since not less than 1981 (way back to we researched) had beforehand gained racing one mile or farther.

Confirmed stakes winners dominate

Horses hardly ever depend the Haskell as their first win on the stakes stage. Do you know 43 of the final 44 Haskell winners had beforehand gained a stakes race? The one exception in our pattern measurement is Paynter, who gained the 2012 Haskell after ending second by a neck within the Belmont Stakes.

Favorites and short-priced horses run to their odds

Favorites have gained 11 of the final 20 editions of the Haskell, accumulating a flashy 55% success price that’s a lot increased than usually anticipated for favorites. Six different Haskell winners throughout that timeframe began because the second selection at odds of 9-2 or much less. And going again even additional, solely three Haskell winners since 1992 have began at odds increased than 9-2, with two of them going off at single-digit odds.

It’s secure to say short-priced horses carry out nicely within the Haskell, and this extends past first prize to incorporate the minor awards. Over the past twenty years, 51 out of 60 horses (85%) who completed third or higher within the Haskell began at single-digit odds.

Stoutly bred horses carry out greatest

Horses bred to excel at traditional distances are a typical presence within the Haskell winner’s circle. It’s a easy statistic: the final 15 Haskell winners had been all sired by stallions who competed in a Triple Crown race and/or gained a Grade 1 race at 1 1/16 miles or farther. It’s unusual for pure sprinters to sire Haskell winners, so be certain that your Haskell choose boasts a stout pedigree earlier than heading to the betting home windows.

Conclusions

A deep discipline seems to be lining up for the 2024 Haskell. Whereas closing entries gained’t be drawn till Wednesday, we will draw some conclusions on the most probably winner based mostly off the potential entries.

Triple Crown alumni are outstanding, with Belmont Stakes Introduced by NYRA Bets 1-2 finishers Dornoch and Mindframe anticipated to hitch reigning champion 2-year-old male Fierceness, who completed fifteenth as the favourite within the Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve. Final yr’s Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner Timberlake additional deepens the doable discipline.

Out of those 4, Mindframe (who has but to win a stakes) and Timberlake (who skipped the Triple Crown) have significant chinks of their armor. However the profiles of Dornoch and Fierceness are tough to separate from a historic perspective. They every have tactical velocity, are bred to deal with the Haskell distance, and determine to begin at quick costs.

If there’s one element that might tip the scales, it’s the actual fact the post-time favourite has prevailed in 11 of the final 20 editions of the Haskell. Whereas we’ll have to attend and see how the Haskell betting unfolds earlier than drawing any conclusions on this entrance, there’s a superb likelihood Fierceness will entice essentially the most consideration, with bettors forgiving his Kentucky Derby misfire and selecting as a substitute to recall his blowout victories within the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby Introduced by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa and Grade 1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Introduced by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance.

If this proves to be the case, then Fierceness ranks because the most probably Haskell winner from a historic perspective.

Good luck, and benefit from the race!