Typically, while you’re a staff with no latest historical past of success, that lengthy line of failures is all folks can see even when the worm begins to show.
So it has been for Essendon over the previous few weeks; after a sizzling begin to 2024 that noticed them take an 8-1-2 file into the season’s midpoint, three losses of their final 4 video games was all many wanted to dismiss half a 12 months of fantastic work. All of the sudden, the Bombers had been simply clinging to their finals spot, and all discuss of high 4, by no means thoughts a premiership, vanished into the ether.
However on the time of writing, courtesy of a useful, tremendously good 12-point win over an outmatched and outcoached Collingwood, the Bombers are third, and are sure to stay not less than fourth by spherical’s finish.
And the importance of this triumph needs to be higher than simply the scale of the scalp – the reigning premiers on the MCG beneath the brilliant lights is, in any case, as massive as they arrive.
It’s extra the best way the Bombers performed, the calmness with which they defused an early Collingwood surge to slowly however certainly wrest again management of the sport, so by the point they ultimately hit the entrance halfway via the third quarter it got here as a shock they had been nonetheless trailing.
It was the certain, affected person use of the soccer, denying the Pies their chaotic, strain sport with a swathe of uncontested marks, however all the time with intent to maneuver the Sherrin in a single course or one other, by no means standing nonetheless and alluring their foes to come back at them.
It was the unimaginable, ruthless effectivity of Zach Merrett, who has had dozens extra prolific video games however by no means any simpler, his sensible ball abilities and sharp thoughts organising rating after rating on an evening the place the Dons, regardless of the ultimate margin, had seven extra of them than the Magpies.
It was within the absence of the form of debilitating, goal-conceding turnovers that so typically have cruelled Essendon sides of yesteryear; of assessing Collingwood strengths after a traditional Magpies burst within the first quarter and immediately snuffing it out, of taking part in sensible, measured soccer in a manner it’s about time we realised is the Bombers’ model now, win, lose or draw.
It was in Brad Scott’s handpicked midfield mixture overwhelming the Pies’ brigade of electrical ball-movers, from Sam Durham stopping Nick Daicos from reducing them to ribbons and proscribing almost all his work to in shut the place he’s infinitely much less harmful – how typically will you see him go at 30 per cent by foot? – to Jye Caldwell’s beautiful emergence as the within bull with outdoors smarts this membership have been crying out for since Jobe Watson received* his Brownlow.
It was in a smaller, extra streamlined and completely balanced ahead line that repeatedly led the Pies’ defence on a merry dance within the second and third quarters; in Nate Caddy’s aerial menace, Jake Stringer’s tackle-busting energy, Kyle Langford’s main patterns and Matt Guelfi’s knack of popping up for a vital purpose or two each week.
And most of all, it was in how the Bombers, way more comfortably than the ultimate margin indicated, denied the Pies the form of final-quarter cost that noticed them inflict a heartbreaking loss and a flattening draw within the final two Anzac Day matches. Positive, the Magpies kicked the sport’s final three objectives, however spaced 5 and 7 minutes aside, there was no flood of scoring, no cataclysmic breakdown in construction, and no irresistible wave of Magpie momentum that has carried them to victory so many occasions beneath Craig McRae.
Perversely, if outcomes go in opposition to the Bombers this week, then they are going to stay and not using a victory over a top-eight staff, with the Magpies’ loss giving no fewer than 5 sides from ninth to thirteenth the possibility to leapfrog them by Sunday.
However don’t assume for a second that makes these Dons flat-track bullies. Whether or not or not their season quantities to something, this can be a staff on the quick observe to one thing particular, with wise, measured soccer on the coronary heart of every thing they do.
Earlier iterations of Bomber groups have had nights the place they give the impression of being irresistible, the place miraculous objectives are kicked, dashing half-backs tear up the turf and a litany of harmful small forwards feast on ample alternatives to pile on large scores.
Scott’s Dons determine opposition strengths, and try to shut them down. Towards Collingwood, that they had their sights mounted firmly on two components: scores from turnovers, and Nick Daicos.
The Pies feast on turnover footy – they received a premiership off renting groups asunder with fast rebounds to fast-spreading forwards. Below McRae, they common 51 factors per sport from turnovers – a mark that, remarkably, has them solely seventh within the league this 12 months, because the copycat trade takes full impact to try to replicate their success.
This has been a weak spot for the Bombers this 12 months: averaging 52 factors a sport in opposition to from turnovers, solely Richmond and North Melbourne hand over extra – albeit a ridiculous quantity extra.
The reply to fixing that curly drawback was to go on a mark frenzy: the Bombers took 139 of them, their most for the 12 months and eighth-most by any staff in 2024 (Brisbane, by the way, have three of the seven higher). And all however 10 of them had been uncontested.
19 of the beginning 22 – let’s low cost Nick Hind given he performed about 5 minutes – had 5 marks or extra, too. This was a team-wide initiative to disclaim the Pies the ball, and the possibility to be overwhelmed by their strain.
In doing so, Scott put an onus on his staff to work and work arduous. The Dons lined 296 kilometres across the MCG on Friday evening – lower than 16 kilometres wanting the all time file – whereas they comfortably outstripped the Pies when it got here to sprints, with 274 of them recorded to Collingwood’s 256.
The latter was essential, as a result of with out gamers working back and forth of the bottom and pushing into area, it’s not possible to take care of a kick-mark sport and go wherever. And finally, while you go back and forth for lengthy sufficient, errors occur, or the staff runs out of endurance, or Collingwood press up and smother the ball-carrier and forestall any territory positive aspects in any respect.
Andrew McGrath celebrates. (Picture by Michael Willson/AFL Photographs by way of Getty Pictures)
The outcomes had been spectacular, and so antithetical to earlier Essendon groups that attempted such a mark-heavy sport – Ben Rutten’s 2022 outfit, for one. The Dons went at 76 per cent by foot from quarter time onwards – a ways higher than Collingwood (64 per cent) – and each time they moved the ball laterally, it was finished in perpetual movement, with gamers very hardly ever retaining maintain of the ball for greater than a second or two earlier than discovering one other goal.
By three quarter time, the Pies’ strain score was its lowest in McRae’s tenure – one other large Essendon, and Scott, tick.
Solely two of the Bombers’ objectives got here from ahead half intercepts, too: the remainder got here from additional afield, with six of their 10 objectives to a few quarter time from chains starting of their defensive half. A victory of the very best order for the affected person however by no means stagnant uncontested marking technique that has left so many Dons groups earlier than this one pay the value for foot abilities that had been as soon as a supply of agony for followers.
Shutting down the Pies doing the identical was constructed on strain: the Dons repeatedly minimize off Pies kicks inboard each time they tried to slingshot, leading to extra errors than McRae can probably be glad about.
Whereas the Magpies racked up the marks themselves, their ball motion lacked the perpetual movement of Essendon’s, and with considerably much less correct kicking, their end-to-end ball motion suffered.
After a sizzling begin the place 44 per cent of the Magpies’ defensive 50 disposal chains led to an inside 50 within the first quarter, that proportion fell to only 14 throughout the second and third quarters – lower than a 3rd of their first-term mark, and nicely beneath the AFL common.
As for Daicos, this was one other Durham scalp, regardless of Daicos’ 31 disposals and game-high 12 clearances. It confirmed maybe the simplest strategy to shut him down, because the Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne (for 3 quarters) managed: preserve him in tight.
Daicos is an unimaginable ball-user when given time and area, however no footballer is resistant to being swarmed by strain, perceived or in any other case: often hacking the ball ahead from stoppages with Durham hanging off him, Daicos mustered 23 kicks however gained solely 395 metres – some 300 wanting his tally in opposition to Gold Coast.
Most successfully of all, his disposal effectivity was down at 41 per cent – and worse by foot. Given how a lot the Pies depend on him and his ball use shifting ahead, no marvel their turnover numbers skyrocketed, and their means to maintain maintain of the soccer and be damaging with it was severely impeded.
The second to sum up the evening got here halfway via the final quarter: a Magpies run up the center, the type that strikes worry into the hearts of each AFL supporter, noticed Brayden Maynard lace out Jack Crisp within the centre sq.. He gave to Scott Pendlebury, the only final participant you’d need with the ball on a quick break with an open 50 to kick to.
The hero of the play finally ends up being Merrett, crowning his magnificent evening with a determined chasedown deal with to all however nullify Pendlebury’s kick, decreasing a harmful attacking play to a scrubby kick that wobbled ahead to the place Jayden Laverde is nicely positioned to collect the unfastened ball and start to repel.
However Jake Kelly is simply as essential right here: with Pendlebury coming at him, he holds his floor, and stays on the Magpies star’s left foot. Successfully, that positioning means he can’t straighten up onto his most well-liked foot, forcing him to hold the ball a step additional than he in any other case may earlier than disposing, which provides Merrett the time he must chase him down.
It’s smarts blended with desperation. Good sense and elite expertise. A cool head and a fiery ardour.
It’s the Bombers of 2024 in a nutshell. And it’s why there’s no telling on this most even of seasons simply how far they will rise.
