With the calendar set to flip in a couple of days from June to July, that implies that the looming specter of MLB’s commerce deadline is getting bigger and bigger on the horizon. With every passing day, we’re beginning to get a greater concept of who’s going to be utilizing the deadline to attempt to enhance their photographs at making a World Sequence run and who’s going to be attempting to jumpstart a rebuild for the upcoming season and even longer.
One of many groups that’s presently wanting more likely to find yourself within the vendor’s group is the Toronto Blue Jays. That is truly a little bit of an upset (in additional methods than one) for the Blue Jays, who’ve made the Postseason in three of the previous 4 seasons however got here away with none wins in every of these appearances. Miserable latest playoff historical past apart, the Blue Jays nonetheless figured to be proper within the thick of issues when it comes to the Postseason race. Positive, they in all probability weren’t going to be competing for a divisional title (as evidenced by their 16 p.c odds in spring coaching of successful the AL East, based on FanGraphs) however this was not less than a group that might realistically harbor hopes of returning to October baseball once more as they have been sitting on a 49 p.c likelihood of creating the Postseason this yr based on FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds.
As of proper now, it’s a longshot for the group up North to get again into the match. Toronto is now 37-43, they’re lightyears behind within the division — 13.5 video games behind Baltimore for first place and given a 0.0 p.c likelihood of successful it. Their Wild Card hopes are getting slimmer with every day as properly, as they’re presently 6.5 video games behind the Kansas Metropolis Royals for the third and remaining Wild Card spot and so they’ve acquired three groups straight in entrance of them vying for Kansas Metropolis’s spot. As such, FanGraphs is giving Toronto a 6 p.c shot at making the Postseason now. All you possibly can say is that it’s higher than zero!
As you would in all probability surmise by merely their present lot in baseball life, the Blue Jays aren’t doing something notably properly in the mean time. Collectively, their pitching workers has an ERA- of 106 and a FIP- of 108 — each of these numbers being good for having their pitching workers rated within the backside 10 of baseball. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt are giving it their greatest within the rotation and you would say the identical for guys like Yimi García (earlier than his damage) and Trevor Richards within the bullpen as properly. Nonetheless, it hasn’t been sufficient to propel the Blue Jays right into a successful place and it’s been a far cry from the nice work that this pitching workers did final season.
With that being stated, the pitching would merely be a thorn within the group’s aspect if Toronto was placing up numbers on the plate. Because it seems, they’ve additionally gotten worse as a collective on the plate right here in 2024 — heading into motion on Friday, the Blue Jays have been collectively hitting .234/.312/.372 with a .304 wOBA and a group wRC+ of 98. They’re hitting for a lot much less energy as properly, as their Remoted Energy has gone down from .161 final season to only .138 this season. That’s a bottom-five quantity in all of MLB and all the opposite numbers are mediocre at greatest. So with the Blue Jays taking a drop in manufacturing all throughout the board on each the mound and on the plate, it’s instantly very simple and comprehensible to see how they’ve performed themselves right into a critical pickle right here.
So it’s easy, proper? A group with slim-to-no likelihood of creating the Postseason ought to clearly be promoting, proper? GM Ross Atkins could as properly simply go forward put up the ol’ “For Sale” signal and begin working the telephones with the total intention of beginning a rebuild, appropriate? Because it seems, it’s not that easy. As Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic talked about in her latest article, the franchise is simply coming off of an costly renovation of the Rogers Centre and wouldn’t wish to put followers by way of a rebuild so quickly into their tenure on the newly renovated ballpark.
Between that and the big amount of cash that’s already been invested into this group to start with, it’s protected to say that this isn’t merely a matter of flipping the swap and saying “Okay, time to begin it yet again.” Atkins informed McGrath as such in the aforementioned article:
“Each resolution that you simply make, no matter a stadium renovation or the state of your group, you need to be considering of the long run, as properly,” Atkins stated. “However as you’ve seen over the past 4 years, we’ve poured loads into the present group, from a monetary standpoint, from a commerce standpoint, from a useful resource standpoint and we’ll proceed to do this till it doesn’t make sense to take action anymore.”
With all of that in thoughts, if the Blue Jays are nonetheless in the same place in each the division and Wild Card race by the point the commerce deadline begins to grow to be imminent then I believe it could be protected to imagine that Toronto would begin promoting. If that occurs, then the query shifts in direction of whether or not or not they’ll simply stick to transferring their impending free brokers or in the event that they’ll transfer their stars as properly. In the event that they stick to merely getting what they will for guys like Yusei Kikuchi and Yimi García then it is clear that they are in all probability going to attempt to run it again in 2025 with a retooled roster.
Nonetheless, there seems to be a risk that guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette may very well be on the transfer. These rumors obtained a pleasant and wholesome dose of oxygen when Vladito did an interview with Virus Deportivo and made these feedback concerning probably being traded to a group just like the Yankees:
Here is a translation of these feedback from ESPN:
In 2022, Guerrero Jr. stated he’d “by no means signal with the Yankees — not even lifeless.” In 2023, he informed the New York Publish that it was “a private factor that goes again with my household. … I might by no means change that.”
However by no means say by no means.
“Like I let you know, I’m a participant and if a group picks me or in the event that they do one thing, it’s as a result of they want it, clearly, and I’ll be joyful to assist any group,” Guerrero informed Virus Deportivo on Monday. “However proper now, I’m simply centered on serving to my group attempt to get out of this unhealthy streak.”
If I used to be a Blue Jays fan, this may have me turning on the alarm bells. Whereas strolling again the feedback about his beef with the Yankees may simply be an indication of rising up and maturing, that is inappropriate. The principle level is that it is by no means actually an important signal for a group probably retaining a participant round when stated participant is publicly speaking about being keen to assist any group he is traded to — even the group that he had “a private factor” with. Once more, it isn’t that I’ve a difficulty with what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stated — that was about as professional-yet-honest of a solution as you would get to that query. It is the truth that it was even entertained that claims loads about what is going on on with the Blue Jays in the mean time.
With all of this being stated, there’s nonetheless no indicators {that a} Blue Jays/Yankees commerce is on the horizon. All of this commerce speak in the mean time is smoke with actual tangible indicators of a hearth close by. With that being stated, with every week that goes by with out the Blue Jays getting going, it looks as if some onerous decisions may need to be made North of the border. Whether or not it is by way of a retool or an entire rebuild, it is clear that the Blue Jays cannot maintain going like they’re and anticipate the World Sequence trophy to return to Canada.
