At first look, Josh Rojas and Derek Zoolander don’t have rather a lot in widespread. Rojas is a 3rd baseman, whereas Zoolander is a fictional male mannequin. Rojas is from Arizona, whereas Zoolander is from an unnamed coal mining city in Appalachia. They’ve totally different jobs, totally different lives, and once more, one is a fictional character. However one factor unites the 2: Their careers took off once they discovered tips on how to go left.
In 2022, Rojas settled into a task as an on a regular basis third baseman after years of bouncing between positions. Only one drawback: He was one of many worst defenders within the main leagues on the scorching nook. That was the consensus of scouts when he was a prospect, and defensive metrics bore it out. He notably struggled ranging in the direction of second base. Statcast breaks defensive alternatives up based mostly on which path a participant has to maneuver to make the play. When Rojas was transferring to his proper, ahead, or backward, he was one run above common defensively. When he went left, he was seven runs beneath common.
It didn’t really feel like a small pattern fluke. In 2021, Rojas performed all throughout the diamond and struggled going left at each place. In 2023, he performed extra second than third and once more put up his worst defensive numbers when transferring left. That was true on each the Diamondbacks and the Mariners – he obtained traded midway by means of the season. His protection appeared acceptable general, however going left remained an issue.
Lots can change in an offseason. Right here’s a listing of the highest defensive third basemen in 2024 in keeping with Statcast:
Prime Third Base Defenders, 2024
And right here’s a listing of the highest third basemen on performs the place they’ve to maneuver left:
Prime Third Base Defenders Going Left, 2024
That’s some sort of change. From his debut in 2019 by means of the top of 2023, Rojas was one of many worst within the recreation when it got here to transferring left. Now, admittedly in a small pattern, he’s probably the greatest.
Defensive metrics are vulnerable to excessive variation in small samples. That’s simply the secret. Regardless of how effectively you measure, noise is an inherent drawback. There aren’t sufficient observations, and the observations we do have are closely depending on elements exterior of a fielder’s management. In different phrases, Rojas’ sudden enchancment could possibly be a fluke.
It doesn’t appear to be one to me, although. Simply take heed to what the Mariners are saying, for one. Infield coach Perry Hill has a popularity for getting probably the most out of all of his defenders. He talked to MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer in regards to the enhancements Rojas has made this yr. He first praised Rojas’ general consistency and footwork, however he had some particular feedback too. “The backhand was a difficulty that we would have liked to handle in spring coaching,” Hill instructed Kramer. “And he did. He labored on it, and he’s made some very nice backhanded performs up to now this yr.”
Rojas by no means struggled on backhand picks – transferring proper – in Statcast’s estimation. However protection is interconnected. Altering your positioning or setup in an try to guard a weak backhand can introduce different issues. Heck, simply having to maneuver round between positions could make it more durable to make easy performs. Between each day drilling and parking Rojas at third – he’s performed the overwhelming majority of his innings there this yr – he and the Mariners have seemingly addressed a weak spot.
This isn’t the place to cease our investigation, nonetheless. In any case, Rojas obtained reward for his wonderful protection at third in 2023, with numerous quotes that sound the identical as this yr’s, earlier than struggling once more on the place, although he appeared higher at second.
What’s modified? In watching Rojas, one factor I observed is that he’s taking part in nearer to the plate normally this yr. The info bear that out. Right here’s his beginning depth, as measured by Statcast, at third base. I’ve break up it out by handedness, since shifts make depth in opposition to lefties a extra nebulous idea:
Josh Rojas, Third Base Depth By Yr
| Yr | Depth vs. Proper | Depth vs. Left |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 124 | 130 |
| 2022 | 124 | 121 |
| 2023 | 122 | 126 |
| 2024 | 116 | 115 |
That’s attention-grabbing to me, and I believe it is sensible for one key cause: Rojas has traditionally struggled with making constant throws throughout the diamond. He makes extra throwing errors than fielding errors, and whereas errors are an inherently subjective statistic, they nonetheless present some helpful info. I speculate that a few of Rojas’ challenges have come from needing to make deep throws on balls up the center.
Statcast breaks out performs by estimated success charge, which lets me inform you this: On performs the league converts at an 80% clip or higher, Rojas was abysmal from 2021 by means of 2023. We’re speaking about going to his left particularly on this article, but it surely’s simply as true general. He was six outs beneath common going left on simple performs, and 15 outs beneath common on simple performs general. On the powerful stuff, he was 5 outs above common, largely transferring to his proper.
Mix that with the truth that most of his errors are of the throwing selection, and also you’ll begin to get an concept of what’s happening. Loads of his issues on simple performs got here with him taking part in deep third base and having one thing go fallacious, whether or not it was not with the ability to get the throw off in time, sending it offline, or simply attempting to go too quick and messing up every little thing consequently. His worst ending positions on these 80%-plus performs had been mainly simply deep third base:
Now let’s have a look at a chart of his 80%-plus performs in 2024. Rojas has been phenomenally profitable on them, changing 99% of his choices. He’s additionally fielding the ball in a special spot on common:
The relative sizes and colours of these bins each inform a narrative. Rojas is fielding fewer balls along with his ft close to the outfield grass, and extra coming in and to the left to chop the ball off. He’s getting simpler throws out of that change. That issues rather a lot for somebody whose greatest struggles have at all times come on performs that the typical third baseman makes simply.
Examine Rojas to Matt Chapman, maybe the strongest-armed third baseman within the recreation, and this can make much more sense. Chapman has been 15 outs above common on simple performs from 2021 by means of 2024, the identical timeframe we’re for Rojas. He’s performed so whereas staying far again:
From 2021 by means of 2024, Chapman has performed 3 times as many innings as Rojas at third. He’s made 18 throwing errors to Rojas’ 14. He combines a cannon arm and pinpoint accuracy. Thus it’s fully affordable for him to area nearly all of his possibilities comparatively deep. It simply traces up effectively along with his talent set.
Earlier than this yr, Rojas was fielding the ball in related areas to Chapman. That simply doesn’t make sense. No third baseman within the majors with 1,500 fielding innings from 2021-2024 makes throwing errors extra regularly than Rojas. Chapman is among the perfect. There’s a ton extra to protection than simply not throwing the ball away – however throwing the ball away was weighing Rojas down, and he was fielding balls in positions the place he wanted to make sturdy correct throws. It was only a unhealthy setup.
I don’t assume Rojas’ present type will proceed, as a result of once more, he’s been one of the vital error-prone third basemen within the majors for years. He’s nonetheless made three throwing errors this yr, however all three have been forgivable, do-or-die throws in opposition to speedy runners or difficult hops at unattainable angles. This play is a suitable miss:
This one, from 2021, is just not:
It is best to at all times be skeptical of most of these easy explanations. There simply hasn’t been sufficient baseball performed to make sure. Perhaps Rojas is simply uncommonly wholesome proper now, and the following time he feels barely off within the morning, he’ll revert to his previous methods. Perhaps he’s simply on a throwing scorching streak. Perhaps pure likelihood has meant he hasn’t had many deep balls to area, and he’ll be again to his previous methods very quickly.
I’m a believer, although. There’s a constant by means of line to Rojas’ enchancment that makes me extra more likely to imagine it. Standing nearer to house plate will increase your throwing consistency. Enjoying the identical place persistently as an alternative of flying across the diamond improves your general fielding consistency. Drilling with a superb infield coach improves your consistency. And what we’ve seen up to now is how Rojas appears when he’s extra constant. He’s by no means had a specific drawback with powerful performs, and now he’s making the simple ones. Seems like a profitable mannequin to me!
