Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/13/24

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

David: Dan-is there something within the numbers that reveals what’s fallacious with the Braves proper now? A cursory look makes it appear to be the metrics of this 12 months and final 12 months are relative shut.

Dan Szymborski: Properly, numerous hitters are underperforming! Olson, the injured Acuña, and Riley all had outstanding spots within the zstats replace I posted yesterday

Tacoby Bellsbury: What baseball participant archetype corresponds to every of your cats at this stage of their careers?

Dan Szymborski: Oh geez, I’m undecided

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio’s type of Fernando Rodney-y. Constantine’s type of moody

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided the way it work although

Tjf167: Are you wanting ahead to the Rickwood Area recreation?

Dan Szymborski: I feel it ought to be enjoyable. I dig particular occasion video games

Joe: i’ve seen triple slash strains on a pitcher’s particular person pitch- for instance, Chris Sale’s slider .190/.230/.401- and what does the OBP symbolize? I can perceive how a single pitch may have an AVG and SLG, however what does OBP imply?

Dan Szymborski: presumably that’s the pitch they stroll on? I don’t see OBP for pitches that usually

Tjf167: Crochet and the Orioles feels just like the deadline transfer that makes essentially the most sense. I might assume it must be painful from the Orioles aspect – how a lot would you be keen to half with?

Dan Szymborski: I’d surrender Mayo or Norby. I might not surrender Holliday

Tjf167: Is essentially the most underrated side of Aaron Choose’s efficiency this 12 months that he’s a 32 12 months previous 290 pound man who’s play a plus defensive heart discipline?

Dan Szymborski: It coudl very nicely be.

Dan Szymborski: The truth that he’s even competent on the market given how huge a dude he’s is simply wonderful

Dan Szymborski: He doesn’t must be prime Kiermaier to be spectacular

Dan Szymborski: Like if I wakened at some point and located a cat taking part in the cello, I wouldn’t be dissatisfied if the cat is inferior to, say, Jacqueline du Pré.

Dan Szymborski: I suppose Samoa Joe is in the identical class?

Visitor: The Giants may use a left handed bat for his or her lineup. Who could be a sensible goal. Jazz possibly?

Dan Szymborski: That’s really an attention-grabbing thought, however downside is, I’ve no really feel for the way the Marlins are considering

Dan Szymborski: exterior of an intense worry each time they must pay cash for one thing

Tjf167: I ask this query usually and nobody ever has the answer- how come there may be not evaluation on the correlation of exit velocity and bat model/make? We obsess in regards to the stitches on the ball, however nobody ever talks in regards to the totally different bats. Why?

Dan Szymborski: I feel as a result of now we have even much less details about the bats than the balls, because of the latter being allegedly standardized

Dan Szymborski: I’m certain if individuals begin delivery Meredith Wills a bunch of game-used bats she’d discover one thing attention-grabbing

Mr. Flask: In the event you may journey again in time to see a recreation (only a regular recreation) at a now-gone MLB stadium, which one would you select, and why?

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see the Polo Grounds simply because the bizarre configuration of the park makes such a unique recreation

Dan Szymborski: Taking part in in it in MLB the Present has made me need that

roderick: Awhile again there was speak about Blue Jays administration preferring contact over energy. Might that designate Vladdy’s excessive groundball strategy and lack of pulled flyballs? I would like hope

Dan Szymborski: It COULD be, however I’m not aware of the non-public conversations they’ve

Dan Szymborski: I discuss to entrance places of work fairly a bit, however I’m at all times conscious that what they inform me is incomplete

wingedbeater: Rank your confidence in ZIPS’s common capacity to foretell the next: (1) age-related decline for an MLB place participant, (2) age-related decline for an MLB pitcher; (3) MLB success of an MiLB place participant prospect, (4) MLB success of an MiLB pitching prospect, (5) MLB success of an IFA place participant transferring from a non-US skilled league, (6) MLB success of an IFA pitcher transferring from a non-US skilled league

Dan Szymborski: About that order!

Maddie: Hey Dan. Some fast questions on some Giants prospects:

How involved are you about Luciano’s protection?
Is it value taking part in Matos over Yaz or Slater proper now?
How sustainable is Heliot Ramos’ early season success?

Dan Szymborski: Numerous Heliot’s enchancment is probably going actual, the projection methods have all moved up like 25-35ish factors of OPS for ROS

Dan Szymborski: Although he simply missed the zStats chart for OPS; zStats has him at .264/.353/.447, which means there’s seemingly some air not less than pumped into his present numbers. However the factor is, .264/.353/.447 in itself is rattling good on this offensive setting in SF

Juan: On a scale from 1 to Astros, the place would you price Baltimore’s rebuild up up to now?

Dan Szymborski: 9

Dan Szymborski: They nonetheless have to indicate, previous Burnes, that they’re keen to go excessive

Dan Szymborski: and we nonetheless must see if they’ll hold the workforce collectively

Dan Szymborski: now, the brand new proprietor has stated some optimistic issues

Dan Szymborski: nevertheless it’s so much inexpensive to purchase each a spherical at Pickles Pub than it’s to signal Gunnar Henderson to an 9 12 months extension

Tim: Nathaniel Lowe was already being a singles hitter and it’s solely gotten worse. He’s hitting the ball dramatically much less exhausting and the way for much longer can we give him to proper the ship? I’ll must decide when Jung returns (hopefully within the subsequent 10 days) and I can transfer on with Vaughn and lower Lowe free

Dan Szymborski: I feel his rope is working out of…uh…rope

Dan Szymborski: He’s hit extremely weakly this 12 months and the Rangers aren’t ready to be affected person

Dan Szymborski: He’s solely actually had one wonderful season

Dan Szymborski: offensively, and the remaining are simply fine-ish. If we’re speaking fantasy, I don’t assume Lowe has a ton of worth until we’re speaking REALLY deep leagues

Dan Szymborski: However right here’s the issue: I’ve even much less religion in Vaughn

Jeremy: Odds that one NL playoff workforce finishes beneath .500? Odds that two achieve this?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS really had it lower than 10%

Dan Szymborski: The typical wins for the eventual wild card winners within the final run was 91.8, 88.0, and 85.4 within the NL

Dan Szymborski: (within the AL, it was 93.6, 89.5, 86.8)

Aaron Choose: Have you ever seen something like these previous three hitting seasons that wasn’t, you already know, Bighead Barry? All of us thought 2017 was unimaginable. However that he’d by no means outdo it. After which 2022. And certainly he’ll decline from there. And now this.

Dan Szymborski: No, Choose’s had one of the best hitting years since Bonds

Dan Szymborski: Getting 11 WAR is very large!

Tjf167: Giancarlo Stanton is having a considerably productive season with the bat regardless of just about not strolling anymore. Is it value rostering a 0.5 WARish DH provided that you’re a world sequence contender?

Dan Szymborski: As at all times, it relies on who the participant could be in any other case

Dan Szymborski: Stanton’s extremely meh, however he’s not the workforce’s greatest downside

Oaktown Blues: It’s June and Brent Rooker has a 150 wRC+ with the xWOBA to match. However he’s additionally sporting a 34.6% Ok price. Is he due for a collapse?

Dan Szymborski: Seemingly not a collapse

Dan Szymborski: the zStats have his triple slash at .261/.334/.496

Dan Szymborski: So 150? That’s a bit too juicy. However he’s nonetheless hitting very nicely

Dan Szymborski: OH, didn’t reply the entire Giants query from above. Sorry, I’m simply distracted

Dan Szymborski: Unsure Matos OVER both of these different two

Dan Szymborski: and I don’t assume there’s any PARTICULAR purpose to be frightened about his protection, not less than any greater than a pair months in the past

Dan Spivey: Nats quickest workforce to cross 100 SB since 2009. Any Moneyball-esk market inefficiency there? I like groups that aren’t anticipated to compete doing bizarre, wild stuff.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not satisfied groups are stealing sufficient

Dan Szymborski: BUT…that evaluation doesn’t embrace damage threat and I haven’t actually ever dove into that

Hans Buby: How do you resolve an issue like A. Rizzo?

Dan Szymborski: I feel you unfold some butter and a poached egg on prime

Holliday: He nonetheless doesn’t appear to have discovered it down within the minors. Panic time but?

Dan Szymborski: Uh…he’s a 20 12 months previous shortstop with a wRC+ round 140 in Triple A

Dan Szymborski: why would we panic abotu that?

Dan Szymborski: Now, there’s a little bit of a fear that he may not be aggressive sufficient on the plate within the minors, a contact of Jeremy Hermida Illness, nevertheless it’s manner too quickly to fret about that

Dan Szymborski: name me in 2027 if that hasn’t modified

Aaron Choose: Choose has had extra barrels since his streak began than anybody in baseball has had the entire season. And it’s not shut?

Dan Szymborski: I feel that’s correct

Colton: What’s the worst each recreation efficiency that might nonetheless maintain optimistic worth? I feel this can be a higher query than the “if an individual went 1-3 with solely singles each recreation.”

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto certain, our instruments are principally macro than micro

Dan Szymborski: oh a philosophical degree, possibly 0-6 however two of the opposite workforce’s stars mess up their hammys fielding your outs?

jj: I might like to see a mid/late-season replace on some early season tales about gamers who Fangraph writers thought there was a change the participant’s outlook like they do prediction articles.  The Jo Adell article stands out this 12 months. Yearly SSS is pressured basically and “April”, however yearly I learn a number of articles a couple of participant on an early season sizzling streak who has ‘modified’ one thing, however then that “change” appears to regress and we get a really comparable finish consequence.

Dan Szymborski: It might be attention-grabbing

Dan Szymborski: Although I fear about it being slightly meta

Vader: Thanks for the chats…what stats does the Nice Dan use when he needs to guage hitters? Pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: I’m simply the mediocre Dan

Dan Szymborski: however in any case, philosophically, I exploit the best stat obtainable within the state of affairs that doesn’t change the essential reality of the conclusion

Dan Szymborski: I knwo this would possibly sound bizarre coming from ME, however I don’t like complexity for the sake of complexity

Dan Szymborski: I do some advanced issues, however solely as a result of I imagine these advanced issues are one of the best ways to achieve particular intellectually trustworthy conclusions

Visitor: How do you anticipate baseball altering if MLB switched to cricket guidelines the place one workforce bats their whole 9 innings in a row after which the house workforce bats after?

Dan Szymborski: You would possibly kill some pitchers

Dan Szymborski: However I don’t know sufficient about cricket.

Fluke: What was much less seemingly: Choose’s 2022 or that 2022 wasn’t a fluke? Like, how many individuals hit 10+ WAR as soon as vs these individuals doing it greater than as soon as?

Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t

Dan Szymborski: it might be on the higher finish of his vary, nevertheless it’s not a fluke

Additionally Dan: Are you able to give a (made up if mandatory) instance of the type of info groups purchase from you? You talked about promoting “tremendous detailed” ZiPs for Shota Imanaga to some groups a number of weeks in the past, what does that look in comparison with the projections we see in a typical article?

Dan Szymborski: The fundamental projection I promote they get the entire careers and all of the likelihood info and comps. For an additional factor or an additional pre-baked assumption, I’ll throw that in for an extra $250 per

Dan Szymborski: and groups typically ask for *very* particular issues. Like all of the projections however of their park, or a participant’s projection on each workforce, so on and so forth

Dan Szymborski: And a few issues are area of interest. One workforce ONLY subscribes to a bi-weekly projection of the tipping level win for each playoff spot of their league

Dan Szymborski: for pre-baked assumption, stuff like “assume this participant is +X at a sure place they haven’t performed a lot” or “what if this participant improved their O-Swing by 5%”

Visitor: Is there an inconsequential secret that you simply’ve by no means instructed anybody that you simply’d wish to share?

Dan Szymborski: hmm

Dan Szymborski: I’ve binged your complete run of MacGyver on MULTIPLE events?

Dan Szymborski: Some years in the past, I used to be as soon as actually hungry in the midst of the night time however was actually lazy, so I simply took a sip of caesar dressing straight from the bottle

btravers: Do you assume the cubs are unfortunate or simply unhealthy?

Dan Szymborski: I feel unfortunate and middling

Dmx: Final week’s dodgers/yankees opener is exhibit A for elimination of the ghost runner.

Dan Szymborski: zombie runner!

Andrew: Rutschman’s stroll price has cratered however his energy and common have elevated. Do you assume this was a acutely aware resolution?

Dan Szymborski: It looks like a acutely aware resolution, he’s simply much more aggressive on marginal pitches

Dan Szymborski: to a level that I can’t assume it’s simply taking part in worse

Dan Szymborski: and I’m guessing no person sprays him int he eyes with sizzling sauce earlier than each recreation

danny: have there been any ideas on increasing the video content material to extra analytical stuff? I like the location however there’s so many instances the place I’m like I might like to see this text as a video

Dan Szymborski: We haven’t actually talked about that a lot

Dan Szymborski: I feel the problem is the skillset matching

Dan Szymborski: On employees, we don’t actually have a devoted audio/video particular person, which is why we haven’t relaunched FanGraphs Audio since Dylan left

Dan Szymborski: I might suspect if we did that route, we’d associate with one of many few actually well-liked baseball YouTube creators on the market

Visitor: Do you’ve gotten any charts monitoring your weight reduction journey?

bat query: and Meredith wills shouldn’t be the authority on this topic. it’s jj crisco, Richard Greenwald, and lots of others with many years of printed work on the subject. a disgrace this neighborhood shouldn’t be extra .

Dan Szymborski: Charts? No

Dan Szymborski: Simply slowly and steadily shedding weight

Dusty Baker: Dusty Baker acquired loads of crap for the way in which he handled Chad McCormick final 12 months. Was he proper all alongside or is that this a unique 12 months totally different consequence factor?

Dan Szymborski: Meh, it’s like 110 PA

Catastrophe at Sacrifice: I simply wish to recognize you referencing Jacqueline du Pre and Samoa Joe in the identical put up. The numbers don’t lie about Choose being nice.

Eastville: O’s extensions: Henderson = Bobby Witt, Adley = Realmuto, Westburg = ??

Dan Szymborski: Properly, from the O’s viewpoint, ALbies could be greatest!

Dan Szymborski: lol

Visitor: There’s an informal relationship between WAR and a participant’s recognition amongst followers. (Much more individuals would say Choose is their favourite participant than Dominic Smith.) What participant has defied that relationship for you personally having fun with watching a participant?

Dan Szymborski: Properly, even when his WAR has been not so good, Elly De La Cruz

Dan Szymborski: And Oneil Cruz has been far more enjoyable than his general strains

Dan Szymborski: And Nelson Cruz. He’s not likely overrated, however I wish to faux that everybody with the final title Cruz is extra enjoyable than their WAR

Pete Alonso: The place am I taking part in in August?

Dan Szymborski: America

Yo Yo Mama: Hey Dan – your reference to Jaqueline du Pre tells me you’re possibly an enormous classical music man. What’s your prime 5 composers energy rating appear to be?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I discuss classical music once in a while within the off matter Qs

Dan Szymborski: I’m not huge on ranks like this

Dan Szymborski: however I can let you know the composers I’ve listened to most from the Media Monkey stats’

Dan Szymborski: Appears like my 5 most listened to, not less than from my private assortment, are Mahler, Beethoven, Bruckner, Haydn, Chopin

Alf: Do you assume that the “vendor’s market” factor is overblown? Or will there actually be a major distinction in the price of buying established gamers?

Dan Szymborski: Tends to be overblown, however ti’s actual in a restricted manner I feel

Dr J: i used to be questioning what information, if any, correlate to predicting future profitable closers? For instance, Jason Martinez and Ben Joyce can throw 100+, however does that play a roll in predicting future saves probabilities? Is that or the rest of notice? Thanks for all you do!

Dan Szymborski: Principally, being good is the notable predictor

M: How does ZiPS say ought to shut for the Cubs? My cash is on Tyson Miller (and it definitely can’t be Hector Neris).

Dan Szymborski: IF he’s within the pen when his neck is best, Ben Brown

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually simply doesn’t just like the Cubs bullpen in any respect

Dan Szymborski: it thinks the subsequent greatest pitcher is the additionally injured Julian Merryweather

Dan Szymborski: of the wholesome guys, ZiPS like Leiter one of the best

Playing cards fan: That is what VEB thinks of your article.
assume his projection system put far an excessive amount of emphasis on the floor degree outcomes over the primary 6 weeks of the minor league season, when the commonsense (and analytical) strategy for many years has been to low cost these early season floor degree outcomes as a result of quantity of gamers taking part in at a degree greater than they ever have earlier than. Briefly, I feel his article about the way forward for the Cardinals, primarily based virtually totally on early season slumps within the minors, was a poorly constructed article with a poorly researched conclusion. So, sure, he fell into the overly emotional and reactionary bucket with that one.

Dan Szymborski: They’re free to assume that

Dan Szymborski: BUT, the impact is made up bullshit

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t regarded explicitly at six weeks, however the first month of a participant at a brand new degree is definitely NOT decrease than anticipated

Colt Keith Hopium: Why does Colton Cowser have unfavorable defensive projections throughout the board? He’s been essentially the most invaluable defensive OF within the league up to now (by OAA)

Dan Szymborski: Properly, as a result of it’s pushed by him being like a +23 run OF

Dan Szymborski: on a seasonal foundation

Dan Szymborski: and projections aren’t going to imagine that

Dan Szymborski: if he’s merely good, then the positional changes take extra of it again

jj: re:Jo Adell article and the like, I’m making an attempt to get extra of a really feel for what modifications actually stick.  There’s at all times speak about sure issues being extra sticky with smaller samples (swing price, and so forth) however I’m undecided how these actually work on a person participant who has a historical past and now appears to have modified one thing for a month.

But One other Dan: How would you rank the next Dans so as of greatness? Aykroyd, Castellaneta, Fogelberg

Dan Szymborski: asking a dan to rank dans is merciless

Cat Latos: I get pleasure from your chats however I’m actually right here to listen to about your cats

Dan Szymborski: They’re not doing a rattling factor for the time being

Steve O: Do you assume the third wild card was a mistake? There’s like 4 good groups in your complete NL. Mediocrity is sufficient to make it to the playoffs and possibly was a purpose why a number of groups didn’t do a lot this offseason. Think about after they increase once more? It’s going to be even uglier.

Dan Szymborski: Sure, I feel the third wild card was a mistake

Colt Keith Hopium: For a bat-first prospect, Colt Keith actually isn’t doing a lot hitting (even his zStats are fairly terrible). Is that this one other casualty of the bounce from minors to majors being so comparatively giant, did we miss one thing within the scouting course of, or is he simply going to take a while to develop into that 130 wRC+ man?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t essentially assume there’s any deeper which means behind it

Dan Szymborski: one thing an apple simply tastes mealy

Visitor: I like your proj disk and all pthermaterial however why so many Def proj. Positions left off proj disk?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I haven’t actually regarded into it. Each one with 3 video games at a place ought to have gotten a score there

Houzer: Would Baltimore ever entertain transferring Vacation in a deal that featured Skubal?

Dan Szymborski: I suppose it’s POSSIBLE, nevertheless it’s such a raffle that I feel everybody could be scared

Visitor: what are you most listened-to Mahler and Beethoven symphonies

Dan Szymborski: Mahler – 1, 5, 6, 9

Dan Szymborski: Beethoven – 3, 7, 9

Dan Szymborski: (I can inform that with out wanting)

Yo Yo Mama: Haydn over Mozart – wow, sizzling take

Dan Szymborski: I’m solely reporting what I’ve listened to

Dan Szymborski: For no matter purpose, I flip extra to Haydn than Mozart after I really choose what I wish to take heed to

Eli: Does ZIPS see any hope for a Rizzo renaissance?

Dan Szymborski: Not a lot

Zach: Corbin Burnes remains to be very efficient, however do you are concerned about giving him a long-term deal, given his strikeout price has declined a lot over the previous 3 years

Dan Szymborski: Mildly so

Dan Szymborski: however there are often solely a handful of actually good pitchers obtainable in FA yearly

Dan Szymborski: YOu can’t go to the pitcher retailer and ask if they’ve Corbin Burnes in higher strikeouts

Why not Zoidberg?: I’d completely uh…recreation… that 1-3 with a single each recreation factor. I’m not placing that dude in until it’s late innings and we’re trailing. Then his magic properties guarantee we claw again sufficient of a lead we go to extras so he may get his ABs.

Morbo: “YOu can’t go to the pitcher retailer and ask if they’ve Corbin Burnes in higher strikeouts” not until you’re the Brewers anyway

Visitor: Properly diamond sports activities messed  issues up…it is best to have a look at the defensive portion…they butchered  your product t…ex…westbutgh not rated at 2b?  There are a number of others

Dan Szymborski: Hmmm, I don’t appear to have Westburg at 2B on the submitted spreadsheet, which is odd

Dan Szymborski: I’d must undergo it and see if there’s one thing structural there

Dan Szymborski: Often, they ask me if one thing seems bizarre and no person had performed so

Pat: Dan IS a terrific title for memes/GIF’s- “Laces out, DAN!”,  I received’t be ignored, DAN” (Deadly Attraction), “Rattling Daniel”!!

Ryan: Mariners commerce Colt Emerson, Tyler Locklear and Logan Evans for Luis Robert.  Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: That’s slightly spicy for Robert given damage historical past

MATT DAMON: MATT. DAMON…. is weary of this chaotic world, however ever-grateful for you, and the opposite FG writers for persevering with your writing and contributions.

Dan Szymborski: On that notice, it’s time for me to go out – gotta get the pitcher zStats submitted